Area in the Bahamas: Is Invest 98L

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#101 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:00 pm

18z Traps it and moves it west central gulf.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#102 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:Something is starting to cook there.

https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/1164282515517005825


I posted about that area yesterday.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#103 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:06 pm

Surface circulation is still far away from developing, I give it a good 48-72 hours before we see an LLC from developing, in the mean time it is just a mid level vorticity and a surface trough interacting with an UL trough aiding in development of convection as an UL ridge builds over the central GOM.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#104 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:11 pm

Should see a distinct broad circ by tomorrow with a more defined circ by tomorrow evening into saturday as it reaches the straights.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#105 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:16 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Should see a distinct broad circ by tomorrow with a more defined circ by tomorrow evening into saturday as it reaches the straights.


Not impossible, but doesn't seem likely that it will form that fast.
Models don't support that.

But you never know ......
1 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4671
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#106 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:20 pm

1 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#107 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:30 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Should see a distinct broad circ by tomorrow with a more defined circ by tomorrow evening into saturday as it reaches the straights.


Not impossible, but doesn't seem likely that it will form that fast.
Models don't support that.

But you never know ......


Didn't say it would develop. just that we should see a better defined circ..

maybe borderline by then.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 733
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#108 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:01 pm

looks like 18z NAM brings a developing low across keys into SE GOM? (i should say similar to 18z GFZ)
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#109 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:23 pm

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, extends over the Southeast and Central
Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible by late
this week as it drifts west-northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula. The system is expected to move generally northward near
the southeast coast of the United States and adjacent waters by
the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 733
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#110 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, extends over the Southeast and Central
Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible by late
this week as it drifts west-northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula. The system is expected to move generally northward near
the southeast coast of the United States and adjacent waters by
the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Also know as the EURO solution... lol
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#111 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:47 pm

18z Euro looks like a lot of the vorticity get trapped and hangs over south florida and some of it get pulled NE..

not surprised really. given the setup. and that the 12z was Sooooo close to getting trapped.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1704
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#112 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:08 pm

Is something trying to wrap around 25N 74W?
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#113 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:19 pm

Shear is dropping:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#114 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:19 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Is something trying to wrap around 25N 74W?


That is probably mid- level. However, that is an area to watch as we head into DMAX a bit later.

This will be gradual attaining a surface reflection. I will give it about another 24-36 hours at least to see a LLC develop in the Florida Straits.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#115 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:22 pm

latest 10m Meso analysis.

Image

850mb

Image
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#116 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:30 pm

Low-level vorticity increasing somewhat from a few hours ago:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#117 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:35 pm

:uarrow: Yes the 850 mb vort has increased significantly since the morning analysis.

Pretty good signature currently midway between Andros Island and the Northern coast of Cuba.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#118 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:40 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Yes the 850 mb vort has increased significantly since the morning analysis.

Pretty good signature currently midway between Andros Island and the Northern coast of Cuba.


The 10m wind meso analysis is also rather interesting.. If we get convection building near this area then yeah...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4671
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#119 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:51 pm

I think this disturbance has a good chance of reaching depression status if it gets into the GOM. We have several models showing low pressure forming ranging from 1010 to 1012 mb in the GOM. I'm guessing northerly shear will keep it in check from really developing until it gets into the SW Atlantic. But it could be a heavy rain producer for the FL peninsula.
1 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: Area in the Bahamas

#120 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:00 pm

issue not shear it dry air
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, KirbyDude25 and 64 guests