ATL: DORIAN - Models

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drezee
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ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:47 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:18 am

Interesting...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3 Postby Highteeld » Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:33 am

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#4 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:43 am

Nice post :uarrow:
Climatology usually wins over long range models beginning last week of August. Just a few short days ago it looked like nothing almost to September 10th...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#5 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:53 am

Blown Away wrote:Nice post :uarrow:
Climatology usually wins over long range models beginning last week of August. Just a few short days ago it looked like nothing almost to September 10th...


Some take these models way too seriously. They know who they are.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#6 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:10 am

12z Legacy GFS and ICON both now develop this (and OP GFS still does) and bring it intact close to or over the Lesser Antilles. GFS has this blasted by shear after passing into the Caribbean. UKMET does not develop it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#7 Postby DioBrando » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:53 am

heh

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#8 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:14 pm

CMC finally shows a TC in the Atlantic and is much more north of the GFS:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#9 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:14 pm

GFS quickly shears this apart after entering th carribean, a little far out to know if
the model is correct on this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#10 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:18 pm

I'll bite since GEM is on board, as it's the only model of the main three that correctly never showed the GoM system developing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#11 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:20 pm

Also HMON and HWRF don't do much with 99l which is kind of surprising since they are based off the GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#12 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:20 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:GFS quickly shears this apart after entering th carribean, a little far out to know if
the model is correct on this.


And buries what's left of vorticity into SA uber long range
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#13 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:25 pm

Here's last night's Euro Ens

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#14 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:27 pm

Blown Away wrote:Nice post :uarrow:
Climatology usually wins over long range models beginning last week of August. Just a few short days ago it looked like nothing almost to September 10th...


That's why I always discard any model runs in late August that shows nothing through September. Due to climatology, there's always at least one system that will develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#15 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:33 pm

Legacy GFS shows a more robust system than the previous run and is more north of the new GFS:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#16 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:53 pm

Euro can't ignore it now.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#17 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:23 pm

Euro much further N than the GFS and weak. Possibly getting sucked into would be Dorian weakness.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#18 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:28 pm

ECMWF barely develops 99L infact shows it weakening as it nears the islands into a wave possibly. Conditions clearly are not that favorable
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#19 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:21 pm

Siding with the Euro on this one, MDR is still too hostile and shear is waiting for it in the Caribbean.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#20 Postby NotSparta » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:26 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Siding with the Euro on this one, MDR is still too hostile and shear is waiting for it in the Caribbean.


That's a bold strategy, given that run practically caved to the GFS wrt development
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