ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Stormi]

Good news for FL. The 0Z Euro is further offshore than prior runs.

I really appreciate you sharing all that you do even when it's so late. Thank you

[LarryWx]

Good news for FL. The 0Z Euro is further offshore than prior runs.

I really appreciate you sharing all that you do even when it's so late. Thank you

Thanks, stormi, and you're welcome.

Fwiw: The 0Z Euro initialized near 26.9 N, 78.5W, which is about 10 miles NW of the actual of 26.8 N, 78.4 W. So, a decent initialization but not perfect.

[Captkeith2]

Are there models/forecasts for storm surge other than the NHC interactive graphic ?

[tolakram]

On the 0Z Euro 6 hours plots the core of Dorian is very close to Wilmington, a significant left shift from the 12z but similar to the previous 0Z run.

[smithtim]

On the 0Z Euro 6 hours plots the core of Dorian is very close to Wilmington, a significant left shift from the 12z but similar to the previous 0Z run.

Yes, I think we're getting pretty solid consistency about the track next 48 hours or so and how passing FLa... of course these storms have a mind of there own and can do strange wobbles etc ( sometimes I think just taunting us ) so those of us in FLa shouldn't let gaurd down quite yet!

Now, does anybody have a link to a detailed storm surge model that's localized? I've seen the one on NHC just wondering if there are others out there??? Right now it's saying 3' at my house but other sources are saying 6-7'

[Powellrm]

Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington specifically. Worrisome

[Emmett_Brown]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

[ROCK]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

The Euro runs a 06Z ? Wow I have been gone way to long

[birddogsc]

In general we should know more about the future track once Dorian moves. I deal with EM at my job and as volunteer, and the lack of movement is driving people crazy. Because forecasting and modeling has become so good, people discount that storms don't always follow the models. I have numerous conversations with folks this week explaining that until we get movement from the stall estimating the track is more difficult.

[Emmett_Brown]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

The Euro runs a 06Z ? Wow I have been gone way to long

Yeah, it now has 06Z and 18Z runs that go out 90 hours, which are only available via subscription but a few folks post them on twitter or give play by play descriptions from time to time

[MJGarrison]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

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[Carolinagirl18]

[quote="Powellrm"]Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington
Are you talking land fall? I am in Carteret Co and everything I've seen is showing staying off our coast with the eye. I know wnds and rain will still be on us but can you post what is showing Wilmington. Thanks

[invest man]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/e4072c71dbf41eac120bef9402e34020.jpg

Is that a light shift west toward ENC?


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[ROCK]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

The Euro runs a 06Z ? Wow I have been gone way to long

Yeah, it now has 06Z and 18Z runs that go out 90 hours, which are only available via subscription but a few folks
post them on twitter or give play by play descriptions from time to time

Good to know..wasn’t like that in the old days. 230am CST waiting on the 0Z euro run was a killer...

[Vdogg]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/e4072c71dbf41eac120bef9402e34020.jpg

Is that a light shift west toward ENC?


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Yes. It actually came towards the GFS solution. They've been insistent on an OBX landfall.

[Vdogg]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/e4072c71dbf41eac120bef9402e34020.jpg

According to this we should see a large pick up in speed very soon.

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[invest man]

Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington
Are you talking land fall? I am in Carteret Co and everything I've seen is showing staying off our coast with the eye. I know wnds and rain will still be on us but can you post what is showing Wilmington. Thanks

In New Bern. GFS has been insisting on a landfall around MHC-Cape Lookout. Appears Euro has shifted in that direction now.

[birddogsc]

Yikes, we don't need that run off the NC coast. Those folks still have not rebuilt.

[Powellrm]

Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington
Are you talking land fall? I am in Carteret Co and everything I've seen is showing staying off our coast with the eye. I know wnds and rain will still be on us but can you post what is showing Wilmington. Thanks

The gfs continues to ere closer to NC and had been pretty consistent, but we’ll see when Dorian gets moving

[brghteys1216]

Not sure how good of a model it is, but the RGEM has a significant west shift in the 12Z, keeping it just miles off Florida.