ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6141 Postby storm4u » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:44 pm

Anyone got it past hr72 ?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6142 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:09 pm

MJGarrison wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190904/ed21739650b60241b803a6040e60fa3f.jpg


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Dorian has avoided land for much of it’s life.

It has become self-aware.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6143 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:33 pm

NAM also parallels the coast just offshore all the way to the Outer Banks. Lots of TS action for the coast on that model. The way the radar depicts is that just about to northern SC, onshore bands form (sort of the leading quadrant) all the way into NC. Probably not massive destruction, but that’s the trees down and power outage look.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6144 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:41 pm

MJGarrison wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


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Something to consider for the NE FL coast: Dorian's new eye is pretty large. If the 18Z Euro happens to be right, and the center of Dorian manages to travel W of 80 degrees, the W eye wall may make it on shore
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6145 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:48 pm

Euro trend west is something to really pay attention to. A few ensembles now have this hitting Florida/Georgia but moreso South Carolina now. I keep thinking back to the HWRF runs that was the only one that saw Dorian dramatically weaken as it has now and with that weakening was able to make landfall.

In the gif it shows how Dorian's tracks have trended slower and farther west.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1169064411308253184


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6146 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:09 am

p1nheadlarry wrote:
MJGarrison wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190904/ed21739650b60241b803a6040e60fa3f.jpg


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Dorian has avoided land for much of it’s life.

It has become self-aware.


This sounds like the start of an SCP object.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6147 Postby Steejo91 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:00 am

Anyone have the high resolution EURO plots?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6148 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:09 am

I always hug the Euro since last year I married one. She seems always to above average correct. I just need to follow het first instinct forecast better.:: :lol: idk
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6149 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:14 am

6z GFS slightly faster, but no change in track.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6150 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:29 am

What's going on with the models rapidly deepening Dorian into some sort of massive hybrid System as it heads into Canadian waters? Almost every model has this and it has me scratching my head. I know it's not unusual for pressures to drop a bit as storms transition but this seems incredibly drastic.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6151 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:42 am

PavelGaborik10 wrote:What's going on with the models rapidly deepening Dorian into some sort of massive hybrid System as it heads into Canadian waters? Almost every model has this and it has me scratching my head. I know it's not unusual for pressures to drop a bit as storms transition but this seems incredibly drastic.

Extratropical transition. It happens with pretty much every major storm that makes it to this latitude. The NHC calls for this too.

Edit: Think Noreaster, which bombs out due to baroclonic forcing. It essentially becomes a cold core storm.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6152 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:54 am

Vdogg wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:What's going on with the models rapidly deepening Dorian into some sort of massive hybrid System as it heads into Canadian waters? Almost every model has this and it has me scratching my head. I know it's not unusual for pressures to drop a bit as storms transition but this seems incredibly drastic.

Extratropical transition. It happens with pretty much every major storm that makes it to this latitude. The NHC calls for this too.

Edit: Think Noreaster, which bombs out due to baroclonic forcing. It essentially becomes a cold core storm.


Right, but tracking countless of these systems off the top of my head I can't remember a tropical System bombing out as it transitions up here quite to the degree models are predicting with Dorian. Extremely impressive deepening, with multiple models bringing the pressure down into the low 950's.

Edit : It could also be just that most of said systems never threaten land, so I may just simply not notice them. Regardless a giant extra-tropical storm with a sub 955 pressure that produces Hurricane forced winds is definitely something not many people have experienced in the Summer before I'm sure.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6153 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:11 am

Trough starting to amplify again with dry air digging down the Alabama Mississippi border.
Models may trend back east again tonight?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6154 Postby USTropics » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:13 am

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:What's going on with the models rapidly deepening Dorian into some sort of massive hybrid System as it heads into Canadian waters? Almost every model has this and it has me scratching my head. I know it's not unusual for pressures to drop a bit as storms transition but this seems incredibly drastic.

Extratropical transition. It happens with pretty much every major storm that makes it to this latitude. The NHC calls for this too.

Edit: Think Noreaster, which bombs out due to baroclonic forcing. It essentially becomes a cold core storm.


Right, but tracking countless of these systems off the top of my head I can't remember a tropical System bombing out as it transitions up here quite to the degree models are predicting with Dorian. Extremely impressive deepening, with multiple models bringing the pressure down into the low 950's.

Edit : It could also be just that most of said systems never threaten land, so I may just simply not notice them. Regardless a giant extra-tropical storm with a sub 955 pressure that produces Hurricane forced winds is definitely something not many people have experienced in the Summer before I'm sure.


The background atmospheric pressure at higher latitude is a lot lower then we'd see in the Caribbean/GOM. As Vdogg stated, the transition to extratropical and baroclinic pressure gradient forcing are typical of these high latitude systems, especially transitioning systems.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6155 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:50 am

The euro 6 hour plots (0z run) puts Wilmington in the eyewall at hour 57 (Friday). aprox 80 to 85 mph forecast winds.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6156 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:40 am

CronkPSU wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
MJGarrison wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


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WTH is going on with that point right after 12? Almost doesn’t seem logical.


lol I said the same thing...it is like euro is showing off now and trying to predict wobbles


Believe it or not it actually DID wobble east about an hour ago before getting back on track. Incredible prediction right there.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6157 Postby boulderrr » Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:02 pm

Euro stronger at 24 hours... showing 944mb

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6158 Postby HDGator » Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:11 pm


It looks like it stays off the coast at Wilmington and hits the Outer Banks.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6159 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:18 pm

After hour 72 on the euro it passes pretty close to Cape Cod and then plows straight into Nova Scotia. Canada has had to retire some hurricane names before. Igor, Juan etc...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6160 Postby boulderrr » Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:32 pm

High res Euro gets down to 942mb at 24 hrs well east of Hilton Head and then begins to weaken as it moves NE. Shows a landfall near Cape Lookout at 47 hours. Looks like more of an impact for Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the Outer Banks than for SC locations.
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