ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Nimbus]

The eye is huge now so the volume of outflow necessary for rapid intensification isn't available. But with that large eye we have a larger eyewall with 100 MPH winds further from the center. The official forecast brings Dorian so close to the North Carolina coastline that hurricane force winds could occur on the mainland. There will be a lot of erosion from the storm surge where people have built on the sand dunes at a minimum.

The Floridians are tired from wobble watching wondering if they would lose power and that could be a concern in Virginia since there are tropical storm warnings in some areas there. You can freeze a gallon of water ahead of time to hold you over a day or so.

Obviously we will have a much better idea tomorrow.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

No.. It curves back a bit and goes inland near Halifax NS.

Yup, the trough is trying to capture Dorian. Some baroclinic induced intensification could even occur due to the setup if this scenario verifies.

[Carolinagirl18]

Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

I don’t understand. Where’s the huge west shift?

Right over my house.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

This is exactly what I was afraid of. Everyone is sleeping on Dorian now. North Carolina barely ever gets cat 3's. And the huge eye rides up South Carolina. Since it's so huge the effects will be felt well inland even without a full direct landfall.

[SouthernBreeze]

per 11pm NHC - made it to Cat 3 - again!

[storm_in_a_teacup]

The eye is huge now so the volume of outflow necessary for rapid intensification isn't available. But with that large eye we have a larger eyewall with 100 MPH winds further from the center. The official forecast brings Dorian so close to the North Carolina coastline that hurricane force winds could occur on the mainland. There will be a lot of erosion from the storm surge where people have built on the sand dunes at a minimum.

The Floridians are tired from wobble watching wondering if they would lose power and that could be a concern in Virginia since there are tropical storm warnings in some areas there. You can freeze a gallon of water ahead of time to hold you over a day or so.

Obviously we will have a much better idea tomorrow.

Apologies for my ignorance but how does the size of the eye affect outflow volume?

[Ptarmigan]

per 11pm NHC - made it to Cat 3 - again!

Not surprised by it.

[Blinhart]

Will Long Island get a lot of effect from him?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Will Long Island get a lot of effect from him?

Might get a little rain and windy from the outer bands but nothing extreme.

[floridasun78]

best to all in path of hurr

[SouthernBreeze]

Dang, every model I click on at tropical tidbits shows the exact same coast hugging storm. Does anyone know if there are any possible weather features that could change this? For better (hopefully) or worse?

[Vdogg]

Anyone able to post the high res euro?

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone able to post the high res euro?

You can view it for free here:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

[tolakram]

Making gifs of the map output. Keep in mind this is not a forecast but the output of one model, the euro.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

12Z GFS shifted a tad east

[HDGator]

The 12z Euro looks like it keeps it just offshore of WIlmington and landfall near Cape Lookout (OBX) just after 18 hours (06z Friday).
The pressure at landfall looks to be around 960mb.