ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

[cycloneye]

Models only here.

[CyclonicFury]

SHIPS shows a very favorable environment. I don't understand why the global models are so bearish.

* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942019 09/05/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 55 66 77 87 96
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 5 3 4 7 6 4 1 2 2 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 -2 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 73 93 90 112 129 65 62 89 99 338 358 296 333
SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.1 27.9 28.5 29.4 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 130 132 139 136 135 134 139 136 145 159 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 126 129 136 134 133 133 137 135 144 159 150
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 61 63 61 60 58 61 58 58 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 21 30 26 42 37 49 46 49 42 33 11
200 MB DIV -2 4 11 10 4 21 0 -1 9 17 9 13 18
700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 476 603 731 860 988 1268 1559 1849 1894 1641 1418 1217 1060
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.8 13.4 12.9 12.8
LONG(DEG W) 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.5 26.7 29.3 32.0 34.7 37.4 40.0 42.5 44.8 47.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 11 13 13 10 11 13 19 17 29 38 38

[SFLcane]

SHIPS shows a very favorable environment. I don't understand why the global models are so bearish.

* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942019 09/05/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 55 66 77 87 96
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 5 3 4 7 6 4 1 2 2 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 -2 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 73 93 90 112 129 65 62 89 99 338 358 296 333
SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.1 27.9 28.5 29.4 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 130 132 139 136 135 134 139 136 145 159 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 126 129 136 134 133 133 137 135 144 159 150
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 61 63 61 60 58 61 58 58 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 21 30 26 42 37 49 46 49 42 33 11
200 MB DIV -2 4 11 10 4 21 0 -1 9 17 9 13 18
700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 476 603 731 860 988 1268 1559 1849 1894 1641 1418 1217 1060
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.8 13.4 12.9 12.8
LONG(DEG W) 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.5 26.7 29.3 32.0 34.7 37.4 40.0 42.5 44.8 47.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 11 13 13 10 11 13 19 17 29 38 38

Ships model is useless for invests.

[AtlanticWind]

Ships shows no shear

If this devoleps we will have to start to be very skeptical of the
Globals models as it applies to genesis.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

Tab models shallow/mid/deep on top of each other
Makes me think this system could really stack.

[jlauderdal]

Ships shows no shear

If this devoleps we will have to start to be very skeptical of the
Globals models as it applies to genesis.

they haven't been very good with genesis thus the declaration, conditions are too favorable to wait for model support to be consistent

[sma10]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94L_tracks_latest.png

Tab models shallow/mid/deep on top of each other
Makes me think this system could really stack.

Hmmm interesting. The BAMs are obviously not the greatest on tracking, but this does suggest if it develops, mischief is likely

[DioBrando]

This is going to be a very interesting invest to track. Seems like it's it in a good area for development but models aren't as optimistic as they once were. Then again, they didn't exactly see Dorian either so...

Depending on the track, this could be another big one to talk about.

Already the intensity models have at least a cat 2... and that WSW turn scares me

Are you able to post a graphic showing this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Of course!

[USTropics]

ECMWF ensemble probability of development increasing:


GFS ensemble raw tracks:

[SFLcane]

ECMWF ensemble probability of development increasing:
https://i.imgur.com/hts8lpN.png

GFS ensemble raw tracks:
https://i.imgur.com/cmI1i66.png

I think those are two separate systems getting lumped into 1.

[AtlanticWind]

Can't wait to see the HWRF run

[USTropics]

ECMWF ensemble probability of development increasing:
https://i.imgur.com/hts8lpN.png

GFS ensemble raw tracks:
https://i.imgur.com/cmI1i66.png

I think those are two separate systems getting lumped into 1.

There is another system departing the African coast to the south in 48 hours, could be some overlap:

[jfk08c]

Can't wait to see the HWRF run

Do they initiate the run the next cycle after the Invest is declared?

[CyclonicFury]

SHIPS shows a very favorable environment. I don't understand why the global models are so bearish.

* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942019 09/05/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 55 66 77 87 96
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 5 3 4 7 6 4 1 2 2 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 -2 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 73 93 90 112 129 65 62 89 99 338 358 296 333
SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.1 27.9 28.5 29.4 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 130 132 139 136 135 134 139 136 145 159 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 126 129 136 134 133 133 137 135 144 159 150
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 61 63 61 60 58 61 58 58 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 21 30 26 42 37 49 46 49 42 33 11
200 MB DIV -2 4 11 10 4 21 0 -1 9 17 9 13 18
700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 476 603 731 860 988 1268 1559 1849 1894 1641 1418 1217 1060
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.8 13.4 12.9 12.8
LONG(DEG W) 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.5 26.7 29.3 32.0 34.7 37.4 40.0 42.5 44.8 47.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 11 13 13 10 11 13 19 17 29 38 38

Ships model is useless for invests.

The intensity forecast is useless but it can give an idea of how favorable the environment will be.

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro ensembles are about 50/50 to whether this goes north of the Caribbean or into the Caribbean, we’ll most likely have a better Idea in a few days

[SFLcane]

GFS still pretty meh...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS still pretty meh...

Actually the GFS 18Z is more interesting than its previous runs..

[Kazmit]

GFS still pretty meh...

Actually the GFS 18Z is more interesting than its previous runs..

Develops it into a TD/weak TS near the islands.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS still pretty meh...

Actually the GFS 18Z is more interesting than its previous runs..

Develops it into a TD/weak TS near the islands.

Degenerates in the Caribbean

[gatorcane]

Actually the GFS 18Z is more interesting than its previous runs..

Develops it into a TD/weak TS near the islands.

Degenerates in the Caribbean

Did the same thing with Dorian.