ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Now down to 10/40

What's actually happening with this invest?

It went all the way to 80%, then down to 50%, then back up to 70%, and now back down again to 40%.

Did the formation chance actually ever get as high as 80%, though? I've been checking the TWO archives and haven't seen anything higher than 70%. Is it possible the 80% chance was in relation to the system that eventually became Gabrielle?

I just remember it being code red, you’re probably right about it never getting above 70%.

[hipshot]

I don't know from official info but just looking at the graphic at the top of each page, this thing is making a beeline due west.

[Aric Dunn]

we have a strong MId level circ and broad low level circ. all it will take is some convection and off we go..

looks like another good convective burst is about to start.

[hipshot]

we have a strong MId level circ and broad low level circ. all it will take is some convection and off we go..

looks like another good convective burst is about to start.

Aric, I think I read in an earlier post that 94 was heading WSW, is that still the case?

[DioBrando]

I wonder if this storm is gonna suprise everyone and pick right up.

[Aric Dunn]

we have a strong MId level circ and broad low level circ. all it will take is some convection and off we go..

looks like another good convective burst is about to start.

Aric, I think I read in an earlier post that 94 was heading WSW, is that still the case?

that is how it appears.. at least the mid level circ ...

[abajan]

we have a strong MId level circ and broad low level circ. all it will take is some convection and off we go..

looks like another good convective burst is about to start.

Aric, I think I read in an earlier post that 94 was heading WSW, is that still the case?

To be honest, judging from the latest satellite imagery, its circulation seems to be moving almost southwesterly!

[abajan]

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this
system is possible during the next few days while the low moves
west-southwestward to westward across the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. By Thursday, the upper-level winds are forecast to become
less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[DioBrando]

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this
system is possible during the next few days while the low moves
west-southwestward to westward across the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. By Thursday, the upper-level winds are forecast to become
less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

>less favorable

wait why
heh
thought it had a chance

[Hammy]

Not much at the surface. Seems like it's been absorbed into the broad westward extension of the monsoon trough (which is still at an abnormally high latitude)

[otowntiger]

Down to 30%. This one appears to be about done.

[Aric Dunn]

Morning visible showing more defined rotation in the convection. A little something something in there. Clealry easterly flow on the south side now.

[hipshot]

Morning visible showing more defined rotation in the convection. A little something something in there. Clealry easterly flow on the south side now.

If easterly flow means coming from the east, shouldn't that occur on the north end of the circulation?

[Aric Dunn]

Morning visible showing more defined rotation in the convection. A little something something in there. Clealry easterly flow on the south side now.

If easterly flow means coming from the east, shouldn't that occur on the north end of the circulation?

Haha yeah mis typed that . Meant westerly flow.
The w and e are right next to each other lol

[GCANE]

Westerly winds look very strong below 12N.
Appears closed off to 850mb.
850mb is a very broad circulation.
700mb is still a wave axis.

Its hard for me to see the models killing this off before or at the islands.
The 700mb wave should stay intact even if convection gets extinguished.

[GCANE]

The more I look at it, the more it looks like its starting to come together.

[Aric Dunn]

Westerly winds look very strong below 12N.
Appears closed off to 850mb.
850mb is a very broad circulation.
700mb is still a wave axis.

Its hard for me to see the models killing this off before or at the islands.
The 700mb wave should stay intact even if convection gets extinguished.

Agreed. I cant really see what mechanisms causes the wave to almost vanish in 2 days.

[Aric Dunn]

The more I look at it, the more it looks like its starting to come together.

Yeah there is quite a bit more curvature in the low levels.
Especially with the westerly inflow into that recent convection at 13n

[GCANE]

The more I look at it, the more it looks like its starting to come together.

Yeah there is quite a bit more curvature in the low levels.
Especially with the westerly inflow into that recent convection at 13n

A couple towers just south of 14N and just west of 44W.

[GCANE]

Stronger tower now.
Colder cloud top, concentrated lightning.
Looks like some helicity as well.