ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Coming together. with the building convection, any ambiguity with a well defined center wont take long to consolidate. chances should be going up.

[LarryWx]

If this were to develop and get strong, not only would this likely be in a dangerous position with regard to the Caribbean and US, but also it could really throw a monkey wrench into the progs for the wave exiting Africa since models don't do much with 94L.

[Aric Dunn]

If this were to develop and get strong, not only would this likely be in a dangerous position with regard to the Caribbean and US, but also it could really throw a monkey wrench into the progs for the wave exiting Africa since models don't do much with 94L.

if it develops ( or when at this point) it will also point out how bad the models are doing with Genisys this year. except for Berry

[Aric Dunn]

Current trends are pointing to humberto coming sooner rather than later...

[StruThiO]

850mb and 700mb vorts quickly increasing
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[GCANE]

Large vortical hot tower fired nearly on the top of the CoC

Core is warming and vorts are stacking

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located over the far north Atlantic Ocean.

1. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
located more than 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next day or two
before upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation. This system is expected to move slowly westward across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent ...

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty vigorous circ on morning visible about 13n.

Convection has wayned from the initial convection that tightened it up last night. Would expect to see convection blossom again soon.

[abajan]

Pretty vigorous circ on morning visible about 13n.

Convection has wayned from the initial convection that tightened it up last night. Would expect to see convection blossom again soon.

Well, regardless of if convection re-fires or not, the NHC doesn't seem to think much will likely become of 94L. They've now lowered formation chances to just 20%.

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty vigorous circ on morning visible about 13n.

Convection has wayned from the initial convection that tightened it up last night. Would expect to see convection blossom again soon.

Well, regardless of if convection re-fires or not, the NHC doesn't seem to think much will likely become of 94L. They've now lowered formation chances to just 20%.

It pulled in some dry air this morning so will see what happens.

And as for the nhc. Their chances are like 90 percent based on model support..

Last night they went up to 30 percent based on the trend and ascat. Now down again do to the convection collapsing. If we went solely off model support it would pretty much be zero chance... but we know not to do that lol

Nhc knows not to make it 0 with a closed circ in September in the mdr. Like with Dorian you just have to now cast... and that seems like what they are doing.

[Emmett_Brown]

Naked swirl clearly visible near 14.2N, 47W moving WNW

[Sanibel]

Good surface structure...Should re-fire...

[Hammy]

Still too much sinking air? There's only a few small transient storms firing from time to time.

[GCANE]

CCKW Inhibition did a number on this

[Sanibel]

Rule of thumb is SST's usually force development past 55W or so...

[Orlando]

Tom Terry of WFTV thinks this one might be absorbed by the one behind it. If that happens, wouldn't it become very strong?

[MJGarrison]

Unless I’m reading this incorrectly, the two seem to be on top of one another 5 days out.


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[mitchell]

18z GFS fascinating at 180-250 hours showing a 957 hurricane south of Bermuda, and a big 987 mb low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia interacting with one another.

[hipshot]

18z GFS fascinating at 180-250 hours showing a 957 hurricane south of Bermuda, and a big 987 mb low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia interacting with one another.

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/69755644_10217504194548251_6459622949098881024_o.jpg?_nc_cat=106&_nc_oc=AQld9sCMeOT7WK_Znb1TR3l43RTAOyquGcV4iA55f2XebpCMoz3N7EUmOafvnwNvs2tEEJtnMfFl-q0dDpyvbuTO&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=9285ab4f19e54bfd773e11d0e391e92d&oe=5E063B98

So what is this about?

[mitchell]

18z GFS fascinating at 180-250 hours showing a 957 hurricane south of Bermuda, and a big 987 mb low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia interacting with one another.

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/69755644_10217504194548251_6459622949098881024_o.jpg?_nc_cat=106&_nc_oc=AQld9sCMeOT7WK_Znb1TR3l43RTAOyquGcV4iA55f2XebpCMoz3N7EUmOafvnwNvs2tEEJtnMfFl-q0dDpyvbuTO&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=9285ab4f19e54bfd773e11d0e391e92d&oe=5E063B98

So what is this about?

One model's solution for this system about 8 days from now.