ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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robbielyn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#41 Postby robbielyn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:41 pm

GCANE wrote:Broad Anti-cyclone over this with a poleward outflow channel.

https://i.imgur.com/yp8O1DV.png


how does this help or hinder 95L?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#42 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:51 pm

robbielyn wrote:
GCANE wrote:Broad Anti-cyclone over this with a poleward outflow channel.

https://i.imgur.com/yp8O1DV.png


how does this help or hinder 95L?


Helps with development.

It ventilates convection allowing air to be less dense over the area thereby lowering surface pressure.
It raises the tropopause allowing the vort column to expand vertically which in turn allows it to spin faster.
It minimizes shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#43 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:53 pm

18z euro.. weak TS into SE Flrida. heading nw.. moving very slowly

Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#44 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:56 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#45 Postby robbielyn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:01 pm

GCANE wrote:
robbielyn wrote:
GCANE wrote:Broad Anti-cyclone over this with a poleward outflow channel.

https://i.imgur.com/yp8O1DV.png


how does this help or hinder 95L?


Helps with development.

It ventilates convection allowing air to be less dense over the area thereby lowering surface pressure.
It raises the tropopause allowing the vort column to expand vertically which in turn allows it to spin faster.
It minimizes shear.


Oh ok thanks i had a feeling you would say it would help it. Drats :D
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#46 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:03 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:18z euro.. weak TS into SE Flrida. heading nw.. moving very slowly

Image
Why do the models always aim for sofla, its crazy. Weak ts would give us the same effects as mighty dorian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#47 Postby robbielyn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:05 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:18z euro.. weak TS into SE Flrida. heading nw.. moving very slowly

https://i.ibb.co/k4jXXkR/11.gif


my local met in st pete told me on twitter heavy rain sunday and monday then 40% chance afternoon thunderstorms. i hope he is right cause i go on vacay to siesta key sarasota monday and tuesday, and then st pete beach next Wednesday. when you say very slowly Aric what day is this storm at when it no longer affecting st pete? i don’t mind some rain but hoping for some nice days.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#48 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:08 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:18z euro.. weak TS into SE Flrida. heading nw.. moving very slowly

https://i.ibb.co/k4jXXkR/11.gif
Why do the models always aim for sofla, its crazy. Weak ts would give us the same effects as mighty dorian


Not the models so much as it is geography.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#49 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:09 pm

robbielyn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:18z euro.. weak TS into SE Flrida. heading nw.. moving very slowly

https://i.ibb.co/k4jXXkR/11.gif


my local met in st pete told me on twitter heavy rain sunday and monday then 40% chance afternoon thunderstorms. i hope he is right cause i go on vacay to siesta key sarasota monday and tuesday, and then st pete beach next Wednesday. when you say very slowly Aric what day is this storm at when it no longer affecting st pete? i don’t mind some rain but hoping for some nice days.



Well this is 90 hours out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#50 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:10 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir

Getting that "look"


Maybe it keeps with its namesake Humberto from last time Humberto was a quick developing surprise cat 1.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#51 Postby robbielyn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:23 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir

Getting that "look"


Maybe it keeps with its namesake Humberto from last time Humberto was a quick developing surprise cat 1.

Hush! That can’t happen cuz i said so. we always get sloppy lopsided ts’s around these parts anyways. yes i’m wishcasting this doesn’t become hurricane humberto and not a ts until northern gulf or not at all if possible.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#52 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:01 pm

If the ull to 95l west moves out of the way. All bets off. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#53 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:18 pm

Looks like shear will keep it in check the next few days but once in GOM conditions will improve. The fact that ships are reporting TS gusts in squalls already tells me it has all the ingredients to become a tropical cyclone in the GOM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#54 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:09 am

ronjon wrote:Looks like shear will keep it in check the next few days but once in GOM conditions will improve. The fact that ships are reporting TS gusts in squalls already tells me it has all the ingredients to become a tropical cyclone in the GOM.


Could be. Looks like something that maybe gets more organized as it goes, but maybe the ceiling isn't that high on it according to the few models I've looked at today. Some models have shown for several days that a closed low would be in the general vicinity of Florida and WNW/NW into the NC/NE Gulf. They all have been showing the pressures lowering, so you know something will be there.

I'm not staying up for the EC, but I'm sure I'll roll over at some point in the night and check it out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#55 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:29 am

Starting to build a PV ring

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#56 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:28 am

Now we are getting somewhere... just north of eastern tip of cuba between the turks and caicos. Sheared but that does not always stop TCs from forming.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#57 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:23 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Now we are getting somewhere... just north of eastern tip of cuba between the turks and caicos. Sheared but that does not always stop TCs from forming.
these types of systems can get momemntum rather quickly, will have to see what today brings but its on an upswing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#58 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:43 am

Getting interesting up to 60% TD could form..


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few
hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Limited development of this system is anticipated today or
tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more
favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical tropical
depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this
disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida
during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#59 Postby rbaker55 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:12 am

so NHC has gone to 20 pct in 48 hrs and 60 pct in 5 days, model runs are increasing chances and gfs and euro have similar tracks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#60 Postby rbaker55 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:12 am

so NHC has gone to 20 pct in 48 hrs and 60 pct in 5 days, model runs are increasing chances and gfs and euro have similar tracks.
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