ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Convection building over the center. Its right on the edge of the shear axis.

[Nimbus]

Naked swirl clearly visible near 14.2N, 47W moving WNW

Somewhat elongated circulation this morning which might mean more than one center.
That kind of structure usually delays development.

[Aric Dunn]

Naked swirl clearly visible near 14.2N, 47W moving WNW

Somewhat elongated circulation this morning which might mean more than one center.
That kind of structure usually delays development.

It only looks elongated from the sheared convection. Recent ascat still shows one circ.

[Hammy]

Naked swirl clearly visible near 14.2N, 47W moving WNW

Somewhat elongated circulation this morning which might mean more than one center.
That kind of structure usually delays development.

It only looks elongated from the sheared convection. Recent ascat still shows one circ.

Looks like it was elongated earlier but pulled itself together a bit more today--the flow to the northeast was out of the east earlier and switched around to south, and you can see on the southern edge the westerly inflow has likewise increased. I can see the vort as well almost directly in the center near the end of the loop (a sort of faint comma), though you might have to watch a few times to pick it up because of the high clouds. I'm not seeing a whole lot of northerly flow to the west though so it still doesn't appear too organized, though it's certainly trying despite all the unfavorable conditions.

[Sanibel]

TOO WEAK...

[Michele B]

18z GFS fascinating at 180-250 hours showing a 957 hurricane south of Bermuda, and a big 987 mb low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia interacting with one another.

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/69755644_10217504194548251_6459622949098881024_o.jpg?_nc_cat=106&_nc_oc=AQld9sCMeOT7WK_Znb1TR3l43RTAOyquGcV4iA55f2XebpCMoz3N7EUmOafvnwNvs2tEEJtnMfFl-q0dDpyvbuTO&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=9285ab4f19e54bfd773e11d0e391e92d&oe=5E063B98

So what is this about?

One model's solution for this system about 8 days from now.

HOW do they put it that far north?

TWC this afternoon was saying a huge H press ridge is building in....

[galaxy401]

So much for what I said in the first page on this possibly being the storm to track...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This weak
disturbance is accompanied by limited shower activity that has
been gradually diminishing today. This system is forecast to move
westward toward unfavorable upper-level winds, and tropical cyclone
formation is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[Monsoonjr99]

Looks like that's it for this wave. If it doesn't get absorbed by the wave behind it, may become Lorena down the road.

[Astromanía]

ThIs iS ThE bIg OnE oF ThE sEaSoN!