ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located along a
sharp surface trough from near eastern Cuba through the southeastern
Bahamas into the southwestern Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical
depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida
as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[SFLcane]

A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located along a
sharp surface trough from near eastern Cuba through the southeastern
Bahamas into the southwestern Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical
depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida
as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Yep up to 40% in 48hrs from 20%

[Evil Jeremy]

Yep up to 40% in 48hrs from 20%

And yet no increase in the 3-5 day range...

[chaser1]

One side-note about 95L. Whether or not it develops into anything strong, it ties in well with Dorian's general track toward Florida. I think this is somewhat foreboding for the Bahamas and the S.E. CONUS considering the recent run after run consistency suggesting one (or more) stronger systems approaching the Greater Antilles between 168 - 240 hrs.

[Stormcenter]

Is that not the 8am update? I don’t think
the 2pm is our yet.

[GCANE]

Firing for 3 hrs now.
Cuba is starting to light up too.

[Weatherboy1]

Things getting interesting here with 95L for sure. But the good news (in my opinion) is that anything that does spin up shouldn't have much time to deepen/organize before moving to the WNW or NW. That depends on how fast an organized LLC comes together, of course.

[cycloneye]

FYI= The The 95L Recon Thread is up . First mission is tentative for Thursday afternoon.

[chaser1]

Yep up to 40% in 48hrs from 20%

And yet no increase in the 3-5 day range...

Seems reasonable enough to me. I just interpret that for now they see an increased chance for "some" development, perhaps to a T.D. but that possibly it's approach to the Florida peninsula might limit the time necessary to deepen enough to reach T.S. intensity. At least that's my guess anyway....

[StormTracker]

It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.

I mean I did read off the map that shear tendency was increasing....

Increasing shear today does not mean increasing shear in 3 days.

Also remember, SST's are untapped in that area and it's peak season...ST

[Aric Dunn]

Still a little bit of disruption from land heating over cuba. As convection build over cuba and laters dies like yesterday it will give the circ a good booost. Tomorrow looks to be genesis time.

[GCANE]

Two possible feeder bands could develop.
One thru the Windward Passage and one from the east.
This and the fact it is firing off a dry line is starting to look like what Dorian was doing when it got early into the Bahamas.

[jlauderdal]

Yep up to 40% in 48hrs from 20%

And yet no increase in the 3-5 day range...

land interaction(the peninsula)seems more of a good bet than before vs the straits route, this may be why they held at 60

[SFLcane]

New cone showing the possibility of some development before FL.

[tgenius]

For what it's worth the low on the Euro 12Z Wednesday run disappears from 24h to 48h.

[TheProfessor]

Well I've had my eye on this system for a few days, but I haven't done any heavy duty investigation into it yet. I disappeared for a while because I got sick due to a lack of sleep from tracking Dorian. I'll be making sure I don't do that again.

[psyclone]

New cone showing the possibility of some development before FL.

Yeah that's a change from yesterday which confined the development area to the Gulf. Makes sense as it's not exactly a stretch to get a td or storm in that region...especially at this time of year..

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro has initilized the surface trough axis very weak and south side of eastern cuba. And the first 12 hours it is still over land...

Clearly that is not the case.. lets see what happens.

[SouthDadeFish]

95L definitely looks better than I thought it would at this time. Some signs of a sharp low-level trough on satellite imagery. Let's see if convection can persist through the evenings hours. If it does, I wouldn't be surprised to see genesis before reaching FL. Either way, probably will only be a rainmaker for FL.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro quickly shifts the 850mb vort north then the surface trough follows and closes off in 48hrs. Stronger than last run and slightly farther north