ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like it may be pushing to the NE.

[Steve]

Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.

Probably not much. You're going to have to wait another week or so for that I think.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.

After Dorian’s intensification near Puerto Rico/VI and subsequent rapid intensification in this area, all of which caught the models off guard, I’m definitely keeping a close eye on it.

[Evil Jeremy]

Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.

I'm never settled with the concept of a system developing over the SE Bahamas, with 48+ hours of warm waters between it's current location and Florida (should that ever be the expected heading).

Shear should keep this in check, but a rainy weekend with some nice TS gusts seems to be in the cards.

Would Dorian related upwelling from a week and a half ago still be an inhibiting factor, or have ocean temperatures reset by now?

[TallyTracker]

Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.

I'm never settled with the concept of a system developing over the SE Bahamas, with 48+ hours of warm waters between it's current location and Florida (should that ever be the expected heading).

Shear should keep this in check, but a rainy weekend with some nice TS gusts seems to be in the cards.

Would Dorian related upwelling from a week and a half ago still be an inhibiting factor, or have ocean temperatures reset by now?

This system is southwest of where Dorian camped out. Waters are plenty warm and deep for this to intensify. Only major impediment is shear and later land interaction.

[Emmett_Brown]

The Euro has been trending a little stronger each run with approach to SFL (still weak, but more defined)

[northjaxpro]

Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.

After Dorian’s intensification near Puerto Rico/VI and subsequent rapid intensification in this area, all of which caught the models off guard, I’m definitely keeping a close eye on it.

Great point.

I also wanted to stress that any time you get strong vortivcity in this area of the basin known for spawning major tropical cyclones, you NEVER, EVER let your guard down. There is always a potential for these systems to pose a significant threat!!

[xironman]

Looks like it may be pushing to the NE.

My thought was the "center" so to speak is being pulled to the greater convection.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1171870705656434688

[NDG]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

[Evil Jeremy]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Well then....

[Aric Dunn]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Agreed. With 72 hours of water ahead.. plenty of time.

[SFLcane]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Well jeez...

[northjaxpro]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Yep. I have been stating from the very beginning stages of this system since Sunday that I have had an un-settling feeling about this system organizing quicker than the models have had showing from previous runs the past several days.

You just can never, ever, underestimate these systems!!

[Aric Dunn]

Euro 78 hours.

[NDG]

One place that does not need the inclement weather that will be moving in over the next 3 days or so is the northern Bahamas, insult to injury.

[Aric Dunn]

1km visible. You can see the western side of the circ just under the canopy. Pretty clear now. Right near whre that new tower fired to the sw of main convection

[Sanibel]

Late bloomer?

[sma10]

One place that does not need the inclement weather that will be moving in over the next 3 days or so is the northern Bahamas, insult to injury.

https://i.imgur.com/RkktC5F.gif

Yeah, I've been commenting this week that the last thing the NW Bahamas needs is a slow moving Tropical Depression (let alone anything stronger ... and God Forbid what might be coming along next week)

[Raebie]

Hope this comes right through NC and dumps a bunch of rain. It's positively crunchy outside.