ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[StormTracker]

Every season we seem to go through the same thing! What seems logical to us (amateur meteorologist wanna-be's) based on what we learn from real meteorologists here (and some very intelligent students that are close to be/will become meteorologists one day) never seems to add up! The NHC is always right (+/- a few minor errors with a few storms)! Is it the FSU SuperEnsemble or what??? That's why they get payed the big bucks! Let's how this one goes...ST

[SconnieCane]

Juicy
https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2019091312/hwrf_satIR_09L_18.png

Looks like the HWRF "simulated" IR just took a snapshot of Dorian from when it was in that neck of the woods (with that big ragged eye and massive poleward outflow channel) and moved it east a few hundred miles.

Verbatim, the surf from that could take out a few NC beachfront homes weakened by Dorian.

[LarryWx]

18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US

[toad strangler]

18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US

Sweeeet

[Kazmit]

18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US

Sweeeet

EDIT: These are the 12z ensembles.

[storm4u]

18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US

All members still run off the old GFS though

[CronkPSU]

any update on the 18z Euro run?

[NDG]

any update on the 18z Euro run?

Almost identical to its earlier 12z run through 62 hrs.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM going with a loop back into South Florida:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All

[gatorcane]

[WeatherEmperor]

Gator,

Can you give me the URL link to this model page? I lost my link


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jlauderdal]

18Z NAVGEM going with a loop back into South Florida:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All

The navgem tried to hit sofla with irene, tried to hit us with td9 and going to try again.

[CDO62]

https://i.postimgyYRLN6Mz/storm-09-ens.gif

Gator,

Can you give me the URL link to this model page? I lost my link


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

Click on the ens tab.

[floridasun78]

nhc dont think will loop will go out to sea

[Blown Away]

00z GFS a little slower and SE of 18z through 48 hrs...

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS a little slower and SE of 18z through 48 hrs...

Also at 72hrs seems to have a thumb ridge developing over it where previous runs didn’t so I want to see what this does after 3 days as it could still be like the previous run but wouldn’t be surprised to see a stall or loop back

[Kazmit]

I'm not seeing the chance for a loop/stall on this run. Pretty similar to the last, but even stronger.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm not seeing the chance for a loop/stall on this run. Pretty similar to the last, but even stronger.

Yep, that trough will take anything away from the US but Bermuda may have to watch this carefully

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at this if this is any slower in the short term could have long term implications, the 0zGFS barely has the trough pick this up as it shows so if this is a touch slower it’s no guarantee it heads away from the US and would throw a monkey wrench into the forecast

[TheDreamTraveler]

Looking at this if this is any slower in the short term could have long term implications, the 0zGFS barely has the trough pick this up as it shows so if this is a touch slower it’s no guarantee it heads away from the US and would throw a monkey wrench into the forecast

Exactly. It stalling out would give enough time for the high above it to erode and the trough to pick it up northward. It was pretty close to new england and halifax on the 12z euro before turning northeast. It went from east to due north and then northeast. I'm really interested in seeing the 0z tonight.