ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#501 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:40 pm

New GFS Rolling
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#502 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:41 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:
boca wrote:If half the ensembles are showing a loop than a turn west the NHC isn’t buying it unless this is new info after the 5pm update came out.


Well, the NHC blends all the tracks together... which is why they show very slow motion for the next 72 hours or so. So, they sort of are taking those into account, but just as an average.


They wouldn't take them into account unless the majority of the ensembles including the Operational start showing a loop, tonight's run will tell us if the trend continues or not.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#503 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:48 pm

Siker wrote:Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63

There were some runs last year where it was taking Mangkhut below 900 mb, but this one is up there. That was also around the time the HWRF broke and had the 777 mb pressure. :P
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#504 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:50 pm

Moving out E at 60hrs on 18zgfs
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#505 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:56 pm

No hint of a loop on the GFS, pretty much the same track and timing as the past 4 runs. A bit stronger though.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#506 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 14, 2019 5:13 pm

12Z Parallel HWRF Ensemble mean is pretty close to the operational HWRF in both track and intensity. Individual members vary a bit with regard to forward speed, but the overall track of the members is fairly tightly clustered.

Image

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#507 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 14, 2019 5:37 pm

Looks like trumps hair blowing in the wind lol

Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#508 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:25 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Siker wrote:Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63

There were some runs last year where it was taking Mangkhut below 900 mb, but this one is up there. That was also around the time the HWRF broke and had the 777 mb pressure. :P


I'm not sure 917mb is even physically possible at 34.4N.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#509 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:34 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:
Siker wrote:Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63

There were some runs last year where it was taking Mangkhut below 900 mb, but this one is up there. That was also around the time the HWRF broke and had the 777 mb pressure. :P


I'm not sure 917mb is even physically possible at 34.4N.

I'm fairly skeptical of the solution myself to be fair. While I don't necessarily think it's impossible, it's probably one of those several standard deviation events, which I'm doubtful we're going to be seeing here. Fairly strong hurricane, sure. 917 mb? Ehh...
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#510 Postby jdjaguar » Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:42 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:
Siker wrote:Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63

There were some runs last year where it was taking Mangkhut below 900 mb, but this one is up there. That was also around the time the HWRF broke and had the 777 mb pressure. :P


I'm not sure 917mb is even physically possible at 34.4N.[/quote
Dorian hit 910.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#511 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:46 pm

I'm not sure if it's an issue of pressure gradient as much as it is the Atlantic being able to support a Category 5 at that latitude... wasn't Michael the furthest north Cat 5 on record in our basin? And on that point, what's the strongest recorded Atlantic storm that's been observed north of 30N?
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#512 Postby DioBrando » Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:14 pm

Juicy HWRF run
Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#513 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:32 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I'm not sure if it's an issue of pressure gradient as much as it is the Atlantic being able to support a Category 5 at that latitude... wasn't Michael the furthest north Cat 5 on record in our basin? And on that point, what's the strongest recorded Atlantic storm that's been observed north of 30N?

Camille at 150 kt/900 mb at 30.3ºN. It's a very small list for either >=125 kt or <= 935 mb above 30ºN though.

Image
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#514 Postby storm4u » Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:38 pm

18z Euro?
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#515 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:06 pm

storm4u wrote:18z Euro?

no 18z yet look come out early sunday morning
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#516 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:08 pm

Tight consensus here. I think that loop scenario looks extremely unlikely now:

Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#517 Postby storm4u » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:15 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
storm4u wrote:18z Euro?

no 18z yet look come out early sunday morning



0z is early morning 18z starts around 8pm
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#518 Postby storm4u » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:16 pm

gatorcane wrote:Tight consensus here. I think that loop scenario looks extremely unlikely now:

https://i.postimg.cc/mg7THF0b/09-L-tracks-00z.png


They been like that all day...
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#519 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:22 pm

The trend of more and more EPS showing loop or stalls continues including heading to texas and central gulf coast.

Some sort of loop is looking quite possible.


https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

#520 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The trend of more and more EPS showing loop or stalls continues including heading to texas and central gulf coast.

Some sort of loop is looking quite possible.


https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off

Let’s hope for no loop as if that happens we would have no idea where this is going
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