ATL: JERRY - Models

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SpaceyLacey
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#301 Postby SpaceyLacey » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:56 am

Any thoughts on the NAVGEM model?
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#302 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:02 am

I count 14/51 (27%) the 06Z EPS members leaving Jerry behind...... that's actually an uptick I believe...


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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#303 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:03 am

SpaceyLacey wrote:Any thoughts on the NAVGEM model?


This is model verification so far. The first really tall light blue bar is the NAVGEM. It's usually one of the most wrong when it comes to predicting storm location.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#304 Postby SpaceyLacey » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:13 am

tolakram wrote:
SpaceyLacey wrote:Any thoughts on the NAVGEM model?


This is model verification so far. The first really tall light blue bar is the NAVGEM. It's usually one of the most wrong when it comes to predicting storm location.

https://i.imgur.com/aX9jT8e.png

Yeah that explains why it’s showing almost a loop around in the latest model run I just seen and every other one is out to sea. Although I think the ICON showed it almost sitting out there
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#305 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:14 am

tolakram wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:There’s no way this will hit the US mainland. Definite recurve for sure


Why be so definitive? How about, if the upper air pattern the models are showing is correct this should curve away from the US mainland. Nothing is set in stone though, if models can be wrong about a storm hitting Florida they can also be wrong about showing a recurve.



If I’m wrong, then I would be the first person to say I’m wrong, and vice versus. But a high pressure ridge isn’t going to magically form out of the blue, and stretch across the Atlantic and provide no escape route. Not this time of year
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#306 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:53 am

Though hard to believe, the 12Z GFs has a very interesting solution with Jerry looping almost all of the way back to where he is now after 288 hours!
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#307 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:56 am

LarryWx wrote:Though hard to believe, the 12Z GFs has a very interesting solution with Jerry looping almost all of the way back to where he is now after 288 hours!


:lol:

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#308 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:57 am

12Z GFS - lol :lol: :lol:

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#309 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:02 pm

12Z GEFS at hour 120 has more laggards that stay well to the SW (E of Bahamas) vs prior runs. It might be a good idea to make sure this isn't a trend.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#310 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:12 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z GEFS at hour 120 has more laggards that stay well to the SW (E of Bahamas) vs prior runs. It might be a good idea to make sure this isn't a trend.


Eric mentions in the 11am jerry discussion that the models have become extremely slow in the 3-5 day range. And as we all know, the very first sign of a stall/loop is the models hinting at a dramatic slow down.

I think the smart money now is still on a recurve, but a stall is at least on the table as a possibility. If it happens, let's hope it does it way out at 60W and not at 70W
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#311 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:25 pm

Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in :roll:

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#312 Postby nativefloridian » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:28 pm

SFLcane wrote:Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in :roll:

https://i.imgur.com/K2aijsk.png


Although that's predicted to happen 16 days from now.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#313 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:29 pm

SFLcane wrote:Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in :roll:


Please don't 384post :lol:

I won't rest easy until October is past me (currently staying in FL..)
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#314 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:29 pm

Highly unlikely it comes back to much further west before getting turned away. Its been the story this entire season
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#315 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:29 pm

SFLcane wrote:Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in :roll:

https://i.imgur.com/K2aijsk.png


That's the 384hr GFS. You might as well have posted a picture of a clown's face :lol:
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#316 Postby SpaceyLacey » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:30 pm

I seen the loop earlier with other models, that’s why I asked about the NAVGEM and the ICON did it as well. Pretty sure CMC had a run earlier that’s similar too.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#317 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:31 pm

sma10 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in :roll:

https://i.imgur.com/K2aijsk.png


That's the 384hr GFS. You might as well have posted a picture of a clown's face :lol:


This time of year though there will definitely be a trof waiting. :wink:
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#318 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:34 pm

SFLcane wrote:
sma10 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in :roll:

https://i.imgur.com/K2aijsk.png


That's the 384hr GFS. You might as well have posted a picture of a clown's face :lol:


This time of year though there will definitely be a trof waiting. :wink:


I agree and that's why the GFS solution with a big 'ol loop way out at 30n 60w is relatively benign. But fwiw, the HWRF and HMON also stall now, but much further to the SW
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#319 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:35 pm

SFLcane wrote:This time of year though there will definitely be a trof waiting. :wink:


you are probably right, but I have seen much weirder things happen in the world of tropical weather

happy 4000th post!
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#320 Postby aperson » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:35 pm

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