(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.0N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK, PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. A 191321Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ARC OF
DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION EXTENDING
EAST OVER LAND NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
NEAR MUMBAI HAVE RECORDED LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND. 96A
IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY, DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY MOVING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE KATHIAWAR
PENINSULA, BEFORE ACCELERATING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN WEAK, LIKELY NOT REACHING THE BASIN
WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS. NAVGEM IS THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER IN
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY, THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FARTHER NORTH,
TAKING THE STORM INTO THE GULF OF OMAN AND EVENTUALLY THE PERSIAN
GULF AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS ASSESSED AS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.