ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Post-Tropical

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ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:20 am

91W INVEST 190919 0600 18.0N 72.0E WPAC 15 0
91A INVEST 190919 0600 18.0N 72.0E WPAC 15 0
96A INVEST 190919 0600 18.0N 72.0E IO 15 1010
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:08 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: NIO: invest 96A

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:44 am

ARABIAN SEA:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, NORTH KONKAN &
SOUTH GUJARAT COAST BY TOMORROW. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS.



SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL, NORTH EAST & EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA OFF KONKAN-KARNATAKA AND KERALA COASTS & GULF OF CAMBAY.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:





24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL MOD HIGH HIGH HIGH
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: invest 96A

#3 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:24 am

This system exited from the Indian landmass as predicted by the models, most notably the ECMWF. Not looking too shabby right now.

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: invest 96A

#4 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Sep 19, 2019 5:09 am

But after several runs of being aggressive, the latest(00Z) ECMWF model run has really backed off in intensity. Other global models are still not very excited either.

Image
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UKMET:
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.09.2019



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 20.0N 71.0E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.09.2019 20.0N 71.0E WEAK

12UTC 21.09.2019 20.9N 70.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.09.2019 21.3N 69.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: invest 96A

#5 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:48 pm

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.0N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK, PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. A 191321Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ARC OF
DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION EXTENDING
EAST OVER LAND NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
NEAR MUMBAI HAVE RECORDED LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND. 96A
IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY, DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY MOVING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE KATHIAWAR
PENINSULA, BEFORE ACCELERATING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN WEAK, LIKELY NOT REACHING THE BASIN
WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS. NAVGEM IS THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER IN
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY, THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FARTHER NORTH,
TAKING THE STORM INTO THE GULF OF OMAN AND EVENTUALLY THE PERSIAN
GULF AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS ASSESSED AS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: invest 96A

#6 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:05 am

Appears to have a closed circulation based on VIS images and a recent partial ASCAT pass but convection is slightly sheared to the west.

96A INVEST 190921 0000 19.4N 70.4E IO 20 1002

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: invest 96A

#7 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Sep 21, 2019 6:41 am

It appears that the main hindrance to 96A's development will be lots of dry air in the northern Arabian Sea. Global models keep the system weak, showing a minimal/weak tropical storm at most, as it heads generally westward and eventually moving into northern or central Oman by mid next week.

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: invest 96A

#8 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:27 pm

Image
Image
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.2N 70.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 69.9E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
WEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 211901Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS 96A IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-25 KNOTS) AND HAS VERY LITTLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, ECMWF SHOWS 96A REACHING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

96A INVEST 190922 0000 19.7N 69.5E IO 25 1001
96A INVEST 190921 1800 19.2N 69.9E IO 25 1002
96A INVEST 190921 1200 19.2N 70.2E IO 25 1001
96A INVEST 190921 0600 19.2N 70.5E IO 25 1002
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: invest 96A

#9 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:59 am

ARB/02/2019
Dated: 22.09.2019
A depression lies over Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast. To intensify further and move towards Oman coast.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: Deep Depression ARB 02 (03A)

#10 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:08 pm

FKIN20 DEMS 230257
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20190923 /0000Z
TC: HIKAA
NR: 03
PSN: N2030 E06612
MOV: W08KT
C: 0997HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 23/0600Z N2030 E06518
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 35 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 23/1200Z N2024 E06430
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 23/1800Z N2024 E06312
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 24/0000Z N2024 E06200
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 40KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190923 /0900Z
TOO: 230800 HRS IST
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:12 pm

Second Season has begun in the NIO!
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:01 am

SATCON at 55kts at the time of the microwave pass below. 00Z estimates by JTWC and IMD were 45kts and 35kts respectively.
CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THREE (03A) 2019
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09230256
SATCON: MSLP = 992 hPa MSW = 56 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 56.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 55 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 125 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA


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Re: ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:08 am

JTWC gave 55kts for 06Z. They also increased the 00Z intensity to 50kts.
03A HIKAA 190923 0600 20.2N 64.6E IO 55 994
03A THREE 190923 0000 20.3N 66.0E IO 50 995
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:35 am

Convection north of the center appears rather weak, but this system is looking impressive on VIS imagery nonetheless.

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby Tailspin » Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:29 am

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby Tailspin » Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:57 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 SEP 2019 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 20:12:00 N Lon : 63:37:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 976.9mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 2.9

Center Temp : -38.0C Cloud Region Temp : -57.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 47nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MSG1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.5 degrees
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:28 am

Is this the part where we start screaming at the IMD for being way too low on intensity estimates?
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:06 pm

03A HIKAA 190924 0000 20.1N 60.9E IO 85 972
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:15 pm

Not bad, but still the weakest system of the NIO season so far. : P
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: HIKAA - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:21 pm

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