ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Just WOW. A Category 5 at 45W is absolutely nuts.

[EquusStorm]

Wouldn't be too surprised if this was at like 15N and 45W, but this thing is in the middle of a freakin' recurve waaay up at a latitude that'd be fairly impressive for a GULF hurricane (Katrina/Camille/Michael notwithstanding) ... 24 hours after it looked like it was dying on the vine. Storms lately want to go bizarro anywhere BUT the deep Atlantic MDR lol

[FireRat]

It sure seems like 25 N is the magic latitude lately, or thereabouts (24 - 26 ish). Also, the trend of overachievers continues, 2019ing!!

[HurricaneRyan]

Lorenzo pulling a Billie Eilish and getting that Cat 5 peak.

[kevin]

I've only really been following the hurricane seasons the last 3/4 years or so. Therefore to me it feels like every season pretty much always has a cat 5, like it's a normal thing. Of course, that's completely wrong. For most people studying hurricanes for a long time cat 5s are a rarity, between 2007 and 2016 there wasn't a single one in the Atlantic. The last few seasons truly have been something special.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 13, 2019092900, , BEST, 0, 238N, 450W, 135, 936, HU
AL, 13, 2019092906, , BEST, 0, 247N, 447W, 135, 925, HU,

The best track has been changed, maybe Lorenzo did not reach Category 5 strength.
This is the anterior best track:

AL, 13, 2019092900, , BEST, 0, 238N, 450W, 140, 936, HU

[Hammy]

Weird being away from the weather for one day to find out not only did Lorenzo get upgraded to a 5, but that it looks like they decided just hours later to change their mind on what the intensity was at the time.

[Nancy Smar]

Weird being away from the weather for one day to find out not only did Lorenzo get upgraded to a 5, but that it looks like they decided just hours later to change their mind on what the intensity was at the time.

Probably we should wait for the post-analysis report that can comfirm whether Lorenzo reached Category 5 strength or not.

[somethingfunny]

I can't recall the Atlantic ever having a Category 5 storm based off of satellite intensity alone. Recon has always been involved (and recon only investigates storms that threaten land)

Aside from that anthropogenic reasoning, I also think that Lorenzo is likely to be a very large circulation and perhaps have more struggles with dry air than most people are expecting it to. I still think a really sweet Category Four peak is likely but I don't think we're going to see anything record-breaking out here.

Well then

[DioBrando]

Lorenzo pulling a Billie Eilish and getting that Cat 5 peak.

You should see me in a crown, I'm gonna burn these nothing records... because I'm the CAAAAAT 5. DUH!

(Welp. I'm now a 4.)

[Astromanía]

Lol maybe they just trolled us

[Bostonriff]

IMO Lorenzo will be (or should be) lowered back to cat-4 in post-analysis. It looked great bursting on satellite for a few hours, but the eye was never perfectly crisp. In fact, it looked pretty sloppy to me, and no better than most on-the-large-size low-end cat-4s in the past that never made it close to cat-5.

[Do_For_Love]

The thing we have to remember: the record for intense hurricanes in the position of Lorenzo is quite short. It is certainly possible that there were other category 5 storms out there where Lorenzo is, but they would have gone undetected until about 50 years ago.

It is possible, but that's still 50 years without one even remotely close to this location. If Lorenzo does hold Category 5 status into the record books, the fact that its the only one out there in the satellite era seems groundbreaking to me.

[Do_For_Love]

I've only really been following the hurricane seasons the last 3/4 years or so. Therefore to me it feels like every season pretty much always has a cat 5, like it's a normal thing. Of course, that's completely wrong. For most people studying hurricanes for a long time cat 5s are a rarity, between 2007 and 2016 there wasn't a single one in the Atlantic. The last few seasons truly have been something special.

I've been following longer, not always diligently, but I feel the same way at this point. We're at 4 seasons in a row with a Cat 5 now, which I think is a record. I actually remember reading the Hurricane Felix thread on this forum back in 2007 when that little guy hit Cat 5 just to the north of South America. Very weird to think we went basically a decade without a Cat 5 following that storm, especially with how insane 2005 had been. I suppose we could get another long break...I wouldn't bet on it personally, though.

[DioBrando]

IMO Lorenzo will be (or should be) lowered back to cat-4 in post-analysis. It looked great bursting on satellite for a few hours, but the eye was never perfectly crisp. In fact, it looked pretty sloppy to me, and no better than most on-the-large-size low-end cat-4s in the past that never made it close to cat-5.

Respectfully disagree

[northjaxpro]

There is sufficient data for maintaining Lorenzo's Cat 5 status with the wind and T 7.0 . Recon was in there this time around to support Cat 5 data and presentation.

I would be rather surprised for NHC to pull an abrupt about face about this now.

Lorenzo will remain in the record book as a groundbreaking one at that being the farthest Easternmost Cat 5 tropical cyclone ever in the North Atlantic basin.

[Kazmit]

Has that ever happened before? The NHC classifying a cat 5 and then dropping it back to cat 4 post-season?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1178279945006731264

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There is sufficient data for maintaining Lorenzo's Cat 5 status with the wind and T 7.0 . Recon was in there this time around to support Cat 5 data and presentation.

I would be rather surprised for NHC to pull an abrupt about face about this now.

Lorenzo will remain in the record book as a groundbreaking one at that being the farthest Easternmost Cat 5 tropical cyclone ever in the North Atlantic basin.

They're not going to. Best Track will be updated correctly to reflect the intensity I'm sure, but the NHC forecasters are all on twitter this morning talking about Lorenzo reaching Category 5 last night.

[wx98]

The Navy COAMPS model was posted in the Models thread Wednesday morning and it showed Lorenzo becoming a Cat 5 at roughly the time and area it has been in the last 12 hours. I was very skeptical after it didn’t make it the first time and thought it would just remain a Cat 3 or get back to a weak Cat 4 after that EWRC; did not see this coming at all. The first round of intensification to Cat 4 came when the COAMPS said it would still be Cat 1, but it definitely nailed the second round of intensification.