ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

It looks to be stronger now - although it might be a tall order, could it become a major hurricane before the Azores? That would be unprecedented.

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Although this is certainly not final, here is how I would have the best track of Lorenzo up to this point. Regarding the peak intensity, the Dvorak constraints probably should go out the window (at both rapid intensification periods - neither of which peaked at synoptic time) and the ADT is probably the best estimate. In addition, Recon and Dvorak were largely in tune every time there was a flight.

AL132019, LORENZO, xx
20190921, 1800, , LO, 10.5N, 13.9W, 25, 1010,
20190922, 0000, , LO, 10.5N, 15.2W, 25, 1010,
20190922, 0600, , LO, 10.6N, 16.5W, 25, 1009,
20190922, 1200, , LO, 10.6N, 17.7W, 25, 1009,
20190922, 1800, , TD, 10.7N, 18.9W, 30, 1008,
20190923, 0000, , TD, 10.8N, 20.3W, 30, 1008,
20190923, 0600, , TS, 10.9N, 21.8W, 35, 1007,
20190923, 1200, , TS, 11.0N, 23.4W, 40, 1005,
20190923, 1800, , TS, 11.2N, 24.7W, 45, 1003,
20190924, 0000, , TS, 11.4N, 26.0W, 50, 1001,
20190924, 0600, , TS, 11.8N, 27.3W, 55, 999,
20190924, 1200, , TS, 12.2N, 28.7W, 55, 998,
20190924, 1800, , TS, 12.6N, 30.2W, 60, 994,
20190925, 0000, , HU, 13.0N, 31.7W, 65, 989,
20190925, 0600, , HU, 13.4N, 33.2W, 75, 982,
20190925, 1200, , HU, 13.8N, 34.5W, 80, 979,
20190925, 1800, , HU, 14.2N, 36.0W, 80, 978,
20190926, 0000, , HU, 14.5N, 37.6W, 85, 974,
20190926, 0600, , HU, 14.8N, 38.8W, 90, 969,
20190926, 1200, , HU, 15.2N, 39.8W, 105, 956,
20190926, 1800, , HU, 15.9N, 40.5W, 120, 946,
20190927, 0000, , HU, 17.1N, 41.2W, 130, 937,
20190927, 0300, I, HU, 17.7N, 41.6W, 135, 934,
20190927, 0600, , HU, 18.1N, 41.9W, 125, 941,
20190927, 1200, , HU, 18.9N, 42.7W, 110, 953,
20190927, 1800, , HU, 19.5N, 43.4W, 100, 958,
20190928, 0000, , HU, 20.2N, 44.1W, 95, 963,
20190928, 0600, , HU, 21.0N, 44.6W, 95, 962,
20190928, 1200, , HU, 22.0N, 44.9W, 100, 960,
20190928, 1800, , HU, 22.9N, 45.0W, 115, 949,
20190929, 0000, , HU, 23.8N, 45.0W, 130, 934,
20190929, 0300, I, HU, 24.2N, 44.8W, 140, 928,
20190929, 0600, , HU, 24.7N, 44.8W, 135, 930,
20190929, 1200, , HU, 25.6N, 44.6W, 115, 942,
20190929, 1800, , HU, 26.4N, 44.3W, 95, 947,
20190930, 0000, , HU, 27.2N, 43.9W, 90, 951,
20190930, 0600, , HU, 28.2N, 43.4W, 90, 952,
20190930, 1200, , HU, 29.3N, 43.1W, 85, 955,
20190930, 1800, , HU, 30.3N, 42.7W, 85, 955,
20191001, 0000, , HU, 31.3N, 41.9W, 85, 954,
20191001, 0600, , HU, 32.7N, 40.5W, 85, 954,
20191001, 1200, , HU, 34.3N, 39.0W, 85, 953,
20191001, 1800, , HU, 36.0N, 37.8W, 90, 950,
20191002, 0000, , HU, 37.8N, 34.3W, 85, 952,
20191002, 0600, , HU, 40.4N, 31.2W, 80, 955,
20191002, 1200, , EX, 43.0N, 28.9W, 75, 957,
20191002, 1800, , EX, 46.0N, 25.5W, 70, 958,

[bob rulz]

A sad update on the Bourbon Rhode sinking as one body was recovered yesterday. 10 sailors remain missing.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnew ... inique.amp

Any update on why the boat was out there? The only excuses for this to happen in this day and age are engine troubles or extreme human error.

[Buck]

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN AZORES AS LORENZO BARRELS FASTER TOWARD THE ISLANDS...
8:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1
Location: 37.8°N 34.3°W
Moving: NE at 32 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[CrazyC83]

Do we have a site to observations in the Azores? As for Bourbon Rhode, this definitely sounds like negligence on someone's part.

[galaxy401]

Really moving fast now! About to slam the Azores.

11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1
Location: 39.1°N 32.7°W
Moving: NE at 40 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the eye (or what is left of it) will stay just west of Flores, but the hurricane force winds extend outwards 150+ miles so most of the islands will see them.

[CrazyC83]

This could also be a bigger hit than first thought for the British Isles, especially Ireland, later this week. Models keep it strong as it turns into Ireland on Friday.

[sikkar]

Not finding any live obs from Azores.

[1900hurricane]

Flew right through the Azores. Looks like it's barely holding onto tropical characteristics right now. 06Z or 12Z might be the last tropical point.

[jconsor]

Not finding any live obs from Azores.

https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/d ... =&hours=36 (Horta Airport - Faial, central Azores)

https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/d ... 0&hours=36 (Santa Cruz Airport - Flores, western Azores)

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1179335641110339585

[cycloneye]

It becomes extratropical.


...LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM...

[sikkar]

Racing towards Ir. Huuuge circulation. Might miss most of the rain.

https://en.sat24.com/en/eu/km

[sikkar]

Impressive rain shield.

https://en.vedur.is/weather/observations/radar/

[1900hurricane]

Integrated Kinetic Energy got very large when Lorenzo began transitioning and wind radii increased. SDP actually bumped up to the 6.0 cap. TIKE is the second highest so far this year, just a little behind Krosa.

Month Day Hour V RMW avg r34 avg r50 avg r64 IKE SDP Track IKE
9 21 6 15 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 21 12 15 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 21 18 15 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 22 0 20 90 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 22 6 20 90 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 22 12 25 90 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 22 18 30 90 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 23 0 30 90 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 23 6 30 90 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 23 12 35 20 10 0 0 0.262 0.2 0.262
9 23 18 40 20 20 0 0 0.763 0.4 1.025
9 24 0 45 20 50 0 0 6.877 1.5 7.902
9 24 6 55 15 68 15 0 11.972 2.0 19.874
9 24 12 55 15 92 25 0 26.375 2.8 46.249
9 24 18 55 15 92 25 0 26.375 2.8 72.623
9 25 0 60 15 128 28 0 46.644 3.6 119.267
9 25 6 70 20 130 28 12 47.231 3.6 166.498
9 25 12 75 20 125 38 12 43.973 3.5 210.471
9 25 18 80 20 125 38 18 44.232 3.5 254.703
9 26 0 85 20 130 58 20 49.440 3.6 304.143
9 26 6 95 20 130 58 20 49.615 3.6 353.758
9 26 12 110 20 155 75 28 72.500 4.2 426.257
9 26 18 115 20 155 75 28 72.618 4.2 498.876
9 27 0 125 20 155 75 28 72.861 4.2 571.736
9 27 6 125 20 180 108 34 103.921 4.8 675.658
9 27 12 120 20 182 108 34 104.833 4.8 780.490
9 27 18 110 20 192 115 34 115.708 4.9 896.199
9 28 0 105 20 185 98 40 101.621 4.7 997.820
9 28 6 100 20 185 98 40 101.412 4.7 1099.232
9 28 12 100 20 178 80 42 90.307 4.6 1189.539
9 28 18 110 20 178 80 42 91.071 4.6 1280.611
9 29 0 135 20 178 80 42 93.091 4.6 1373.702
9 29 6 135 20 178 80 42 93.091 4.6 1466.792
9 29 12 125 20 190 98 49 107.720 4.8 1574.512
9 29 18 100 20 188 95 65 107.117 4.8 1681.629
9 30 0 95 25 190 105 75 114.930 4.9 1796.559
9 30 6 90 25 190 105 75 113.945 4.9 1910.503
9 30 12 90 25 190 105 75 113.945 4.9 2024.448
9 30 18 90 25 225 128 78 157.584 5.4 2182.032
10 1 0 90 30 258 160 82 209.362 5.7 2391.394
10 1 6 85 30 258 160 80 209.991 5.7 2601.385
10 1 12 85 30 258 160 80 209.991 5.7 2811.376
10 1 18 85 30 270 155 80 220.001 5.8 3031.377
10 2 0 85 40 302 205 108 306.671 6.0 3338.048
10 2 6 80 40 302 205 108 305.030 6.0 3643.077
10 2 12 70 80 302 202 108 0.000 0.0 3643.077

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]