ENSO: CPC December Update: Neutral thru Spring 2020

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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11121 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:00 am

Not sure how this affects October development in thw Caribbean but Nino 3.4 too lk a huge jump to +0.5C this week


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11122 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:19 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Not sure how this affects October development in thw Caribbean but Nino 3.4 too lk a huge jump to +0.5C this week


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I'm sure the MJO has a lot to do with all Nino regions warming up last week, eastern ENSO regions which affect the Caribbean the most still remain cool.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11123 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:07 am

That's one of the more extreme rises I've seen in one week. It's probably too late to have an impact on the hurricane seasons though. Maybe the Euro was onto something for once...lol
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11124 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:05 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Not sure how this affects October development in thw Caribbean but Nino 3.4 too lk a huge jump to +0.5C this week


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For the past two weeks trades have been below average across most of the Nino regions.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11125 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:46 pm

Massive EWB over the IO/MC. Those cold waters in Indonesia/Australia continues to separate the SOI, and ocean couplet. There are 3 major bodies of water (fuel) across the planet along the equator. The equatorial Atlantic is a non-player while the eq Indian Ocean is clashing with the eq Pacific.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11126 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:06 am

Ntxw wrote:Massive EWB over the IO/MC. Those cold waters in Indonesia/Australia continues to separate the SOI, and ocean couplet. There are 3 major bodies of water (fuel) across the planet along the equator. The equatorial Atlantic is a non-player while the eq Indian Ocean is clashing with the eq Pacific.

That's the first time Ive seen an EWB this strong over the IO in quite sometime. The disconnect between the atmosphere and ocean remains.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11127 Postby StruThiO » Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:05 am

Quite substantial downwelling Kelvin wave may be initiating:

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11128 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:08 pm

StruThiO wrote:Quite substantial downwelling Kelvin wave may be initiating:

[url]https://i.imgur.com/dot0H5x.png[url]

Its been slowly creeping eastward since early September. I've been keeping my eye on it but after the spring El Nino bust, I've been wary since 2019 does not seem a typical ENSO year. However, the fall season is when most El Nino events strengthen. We'll see if these anomalies actually reach the surface. I think a setup for some sort of El Nino winter for the CONUS continues to be in the cards. Maybe Paul Roundy's thoughts of a potential 1986 repeat holds some weight.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11129 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:17 pm

The warming of 0.7 C for this last week in 3.4 is the largest weekly warming in at the very least 29 years (since weekly records began in 1990)! Could there be a connection between that rise and Sept. 2019 being the second most -SOI month of the last 3.5 years? I bet there's some connection.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11130 Postby StruThiO » Wed Oct 02, 2019 2:03 am

Posting 9/30 update for posterity:

Image

Excerpt from latest BoM ENSO Wrap-up:

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11131 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 02, 2019 2:09 am

LarryWx wrote:The warming of 0.7 C for this last week in 3.4 is the largest weekly warming in at the very least 29 years (since weekly records began in 1990)! Could there be a connection between that rise and Sept. 2019 being the second most -SOI month of the last 3.5 years? I bet there's some connection.

Definitely some connection.Today the daily is down to -11, looks like tanking again.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11132 Postby StruThiO » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:09 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11133 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:57 am


:uarrow: Heh. Still warm neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11134 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:08 am

With hurricane season entering October and winding down soon, 850mb winds were not predominately easterly nor westerly these past 3 months:
Image

As evidenced by the SOI which is tanking again, so far the atmosphere has oddly stopped cool neutral from progressing and La Nina from developing.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11135 Postby StruThiO » Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:25 pm

Cool subsurface anomalies have been effectively terminated.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11136 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:25 am

:uarrow:
Showing up on the buoys as well:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11137 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:57 am

This week's update:

Nino 1+2 down to -0.6C
Nino 3 up to +0.3C
Nino 3.4 staying at +0.5C
Nino 4 down to +1.0C
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Re: ENSO: CPC October update : 55%-60% chance of having Neutral thru the Spring

#11138 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:40 am

CPC October update:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 October 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~85% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance).

Near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were evident in the east-central Pacific Ocean during most of September, though SST anomalies increased during the past couple of weeks [Fig. 1]. In the last week, the SST indices in the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions were +1.0°C and +0.5°C, respectively, and the indices in the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions remained near-to-below average (+0.3°C and -0.6°C respectively; [Fig. 2]). The subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased during the month [Fig. 3] partially because a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave expanded eastward [Fig. 4]. This wave was triggered by low-level westerly wind anomalies across the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. At upper-levels, easterly wind anomalies prevailed over much of the Pacific during September. Also, the region of suppressed convection over Indonesia intensified and expanded to the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Despite the recent warming, the overall oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during the next month or so before decreasing, but remaining above zero. Consequently, forecasters believe the recent oceanic warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. However, chances for El Niño remain between approximately 25-30% through the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~85% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Image

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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Re: ENSO: CPC October update : 55%-60% chance of having Neutral thru the Spring

#11139 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 10, 2019 2:41 pm

The present warm anomalies at the subsurface look fragmented and their appearence is not of a classic downwelling Kelvin wave. So I'm not sure they will be enough to tilt the scale and allow an El Nino comeback. They probably will be enough to keep ENSO leaning towards warm neutral for a little longer -- especially with the GFS's forecast of continued relaxed trades across the Nino regions.

SOI continues to be pretty negative though.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11140 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:45 am

ENSO regions cooled down last week:

Nino 1+2 down to -1.0C
Nino 3 down to -0.1C
Nino 3.4 slightly down down to +0.4C
Nino 4 slightly down to +0.9C
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