ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#1 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:00 pm

AL, 92, 2019100800, , BEST, 0, 273N, 814W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 30, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 92, 2019100806, , BEST, 0, 281N, 800W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 30, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 92, 2019100812, , BEST, 0, 290N, 780W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#2 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:03 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#3 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:05 pm

This has a good shot to be a named storm within the next couple of days, possibly even much sooner.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:40 pm

Recent satellite wind data indicate that a small area of low
pressure has formed in association with an area of disturbed weather
located a few hundred miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.
The system is producing winds to near tropical storm strength and
the associated thunderstorm activity has recently shown some signs
of organization. Although upper-level winds, are not particularly
favorable for additional development, only a small increase in
organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression
or storm later today or tonight. On Wednesday, the system is
forecast to merge with the low off the east coast of the United
States, and further development is not anticipated after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#5 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:51 pm

Not sure how much further increase in organization they're looking for as it looks better than 4-6 of the tropical/subtropical storms we've already had this year
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#6 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:52 pm

northjaxpro wrote:This has a good shot to be a named storm within the next couple of days, possibly even much sooner.


Should already be..

I mean the center is exposed now but at least we know its well defined lol.. convection was just over it. Its organized..

No reason not to be classified
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#7 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:02 pm

:uarrow: Yeah ASCAT has verified 35 KT wind. So yeah, they can technically classify it now. I agree. This may be one of these special advisory or update situations here for NHC in this case. We will see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#8 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:05 pm

I think it has weakened since earlier this morning. I've indicated where I see the center. The little hook south of my crosshairs is mid to high-level clouds. Low-level winds are out of the SW there. This system will have merged with the front by tomorrow. It's window for being classified as tropical by the NHC is closing fast. The NHC is saying that there's only a 30% chance they'll name the storm system it merges with tomorrow.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#9 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:06 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Yeah ASCAT has verified 35 KT wind. So yeah, they can technically classify it now. I agree. This may be one of these special advisory or update situations here for NHC in this case. We will see.


Brown (NHC) only went 40% with the PM outlook, which indicates that the NHC is going to just let it do unclassified since it won't be around by tomorrow morning (separate from the cold front).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#10 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:10 pm

Good point 57. I was thinking about the merge with the front a few minutes ago before my last post. Yeah, Invest 92L may have missed its opportunity to be classified on its own, at least as a TD, although I still think this will and should be discussed in post analysis
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#11 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:14 pm

Standards for tropical cyclone classification seem dramatically stricter than for subtropical cyclones lately. Don't understand it but eh, not my call.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#12 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:19 pm

They may end up doing this one in post season. Its pretty clear it was a tc late last night and of course now.

Interesting to see how this system evolves.. models... none (up until recent runs) showed this much development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#13 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Yeah ASCAT has verified 35 KT wind. So yeah, they can technically classify it now. I agree. This may be one of these special advisory or update situations here for NHC in this case. We will see.


Brown (NHC) only went 40% with the PM outlook, which indicates that the NHC is going to just let it do unclassified since it won't be around by tomorrow morning (separate from the cold front).

I still think it's possible they may classify it. If they were certain about not classifying it they would not have raised chances by 30%. NHC classified TD 3 in a similar borderline case earlier this year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#14 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:57 pm

They waited till near dissipation to classify that depression last year too so if it doesn't degrade more I won't count it out, but they've likely missed the strongest point.

Though... they also ignored this last year so...
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#15 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:28 pm

92L is currently being sheared apart this afternoon. It will merge with the front by tomorrow morning and be part of a significant storm system east of New Jersey by Thursday morning. Here's a plot of the latest Euro with wind contours in mph. That light blue is 55+ mph. Tides 2-3 feet above normal along the coast Wed-Fri. TS winds Cape Cod to New Jersey coast.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#16 Postby Nimbus » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:32 pm

Moving NE with the front after drifting around out there for days. Just add it to Karens numbers.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#17 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:46 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#18 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Oct 08, 2019 8:42 pm

Nice swirl. If it had time over the Gulf Stream plus more favorable upper level winds, Sandy Jr. would be born.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#19 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:19 pm

Looks like it's just about gone this evening. It'll become part of the big east coast low tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#20 Postby USTropics » Wed Oct 09, 2019 5:01 am

Most model guidance has invest 92L and invest 91L being absorbed by the low-pressure area developing off the mid-Atlantic coast (talk about a black hole effect :D). System should stall for a few days thanks to a blocking high over Newfoundland before slowly dissipating/moving off to the NE:

Image
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