92C INVEST 191012 0600 18.4N 162.9W CPAC 25 NA
CPAC: EMA - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Nancy Smar
- Category 5
- Posts: 1081
- Age: 23
- Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm
CPAC: EMA - Post-Tropical
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:16 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15437
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
Ahh this is the system that brought loud and strong thunderstorms over Oahu last night. Sounded like fighter jet sonic booms.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- somethingfunny
- ChatStaff
- Posts: 3926
- Age: 35
- Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
- Location: McKinney, Texas
Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
This looks classifiable.
0 likes
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
- Nancy Smar
- Category 5
- Posts: 1081
- Age: 23
- Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm
- Nancy Smar
- Category 5
- Posts: 1081
- Age: 23
- Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm
Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
CP, 01, 2019101212, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1633W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 20, 0, 0, 1012, 60, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, EMA, M,
0 likes
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: CPAC: EMA - Tropical Storm
CPHC went as high as 45 kt at 18Z. Also, thanks Ema for helping me find a bug in one of my scripts!
3 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
- Steve820
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 188
- Age: 24
- Joined: Sat May 17, 2014 8:04 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
Re: CPAC: EMA - Tropical Storm
This is my first post on this forum in 2 years, welcome me back! Now THAT formation was a surprise. Reminds me of how Melissa formed, both of which went from 20/20 AOIs to a TC very quickly. Looks like it has already peaked and is on its way out due to increasing shear.
019
WTPA45 PHFO 130255
TCDCP5
Tropical Storm Ema Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 PM HST Sat Oct 12 2019
The deep convection that had been over the low-level circulation
center (LLCC) of Ema overnight and this morning has now been
shunted to the northeast, due to southwesterly vertical wind shear
near 25 kt. Latest GOES-17 high-resolution 1-minute imagery reveals
an increasingly exposed LLCC about 150 miles southwest of the
convection associated with a well developed mid-level center. An
ASCAT-C pass around 2100Z validated the 45 kt initial intensity used
in the previous advisory, and was also used to fine tune wind radii
for this forecast. Given these data, the initial intensity estimate
for this advisory has been lowered to 40 kt.
With the cyclone becoming increasingly shallow, the primary
steering mechanism is a surface high centered far to the northeast,
and the initial motion estimate for this advisory is 310/10 kt. This
general motion is expected until dissipation occurs. With Ema now
north of a mid- and upper-level ridge axis, continued strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear will likely preclude significant
convection from persisting over the center, and a steady spin-down
is expected. Given this forecast philosophy, Ema is expected to
become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours before
dissipating shortly thereafter. The updated track and intensity
forecasts are supported by most of the reliable dynamical models.
Given uncertainties associated with the rate of weakening and
eventual path of Ema, a Tropical Storm Watch remains posted for
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 21.7N 164.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.7N 165.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 24.6N 167.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Birchard
WTPA45 PHFO 130255
TCDCP5
Tropical Storm Ema Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019
500 PM HST Sat Oct 12 2019
The deep convection that had been over the low-level circulation
center (LLCC) of Ema overnight and this morning has now been
shunted to the northeast, due to southwesterly vertical wind shear
near 25 kt. Latest GOES-17 high-resolution 1-minute imagery reveals
an increasingly exposed LLCC about 150 miles southwest of the
convection associated with a well developed mid-level center. An
ASCAT-C pass around 2100Z validated the 45 kt initial intensity used
in the previous advisory, and was also used to fine tune wind radii
for this forecast. Given these data, the initial intensity estimate
for this advisory has been lowered to 40 kt.
With the cyclone becoming increasingly shallow, the primary
steering mechanism is a surface high centered far to the northeast,
and the initial motion estimate for this advisory is 310/10 kt. This
general motion is expected until dissipation occurs. With Ema now
north of a mid- and upper-level ridge axis, continued strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear will likely preclude significant
convection from persisting over the center, and a steady spin-down
is expected. Given this forecast philosophy, Ema is expected to
become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours before
dissipating shortly thereafter. The updated track and intensity
forecasts are supported by most of the reliable dynamical models.
Given uncertainties associated with the rate of weakening and
eventual path of Ema, a Tropical Storm Watch remains posted for
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 21.7N 164.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.7N 165.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 24.6N 167.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Birchard
2 likes
Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.
I wish for you to
I wish for you to
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2635
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: CPAC: EMA - Tropical Storm
Welcome back, and I hope my post doesn't get deleted for being off topic.
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 32 guests