2019 WPAC Season

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aspen
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#681 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:31 pm

mrbagyo wrote:
aspen wrote:GFS is still very consistent with the potential future low-rider and has it become a TD between Thursday and Friday.


Others have backed off on the development.

Anyway, this is the only area low enough to be that low rider - could this be the one.
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/index4.gif


I’m not sure if the precursor disturbance has formed yet. The GFS has the potential low-rider developing out of a disturbance around 5-8*N and 168-165*E by 12-18z Thursday.

Even if the low-rider develops later or slower than anticipated, it should definitely be watched closely. The waters down below 15*N can easily support a <900 mbar storm according to the latest maximum potential intensity charts. In fact, the region of 0-10*N and 180-150*E can support an intensity of <880 mbar, as can a blob of high OHC east of the Philippines extending to 140*E and between 7-15* N. There’s quite a lot of room for it to go nuts if given the chance.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#682 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:22 pm

Take note before Halong proved the models wrong the GFS was aggressive in developing the model storm that eventually became 91W.

Still, we could get an invest out of this.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#683 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:38 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Take note before Halong proved the models wrong the GFS was aggressive in developing the model storm that eventually became 91W.

Still, we could get an invest out of this.


I guess it depends on how strong TD 26W gets. If it unexpectedly bombs out, we could very well see another Halong/91W situation.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#684 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:14 pm

GFS modeled low rider reminds me of haiyan's track a little bit

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#685 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:24 am

Generally good agreement on a typhoon near Luzon 9 days out.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#686 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:42 pm

The latest GFS and Euro runs continue to have some good agreement on the low-rider, showing a TD between 96-120 hr (Friday-Saturday) and a typhoon heading into the Philippines by 190+ hrs out.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#687 Postby climateconcernnew » Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:16 pm

Let's see if this (future system) will follow the footsteps of notable Haiyan or Bopha and the like in terms of intensity here.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#688 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:47 am

I can see a slight turning motion near 170°E just 2 to 3 degrees north of the Equator

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#689 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:27 am

:uarrow: Definitely from the area at 160E-170E.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#690 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:43 am

:uarrow: That seems to be the precursor to the potential low-rider.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#691 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:45 am

A new disturbance is forming south of Majuro in the Marshall Islands.
It is expected to move west-northwestward, generally in the direction
of Yap and Guam. The National Weather Service and the Joint Typhoon
Warning Center will be monitoring this area closely.
mrbagyo wrote:I can see a slight turning motion near 170°E just 2 to 3 degrees north of the Equator

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/20191113_172725.gif

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/wgmsvor.gif

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/WMBds68.png
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#692 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:13 am

Based on the latest GFS runs, the low-rider disturbance could develop into a tropical depression anytime between midday tomorrow (unlikely) and early to midday Saturday (more likely).
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#693 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:00 pm

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#694 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:30 am

UKMET now detects it but where it goes depends on Kalmaegi, it continues to insist a poleward track.

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#695 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:08 pm

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#696 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:45 pm

Based on the latest GFS runs, the low-rider is probably going to develop into a TD between late Saturday and early Monday, and should stay in the region with a minimum possible pressure of 900 mbar or less.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#697 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:38 pm

Vorticity is slowly increasing.
It has a lot of moisture to work on

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#698 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:39 pm

The last several small systems have found some space to really intensify.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#699 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:54 am

The low-rider will be passing over an area whose OHC is enough to support a sub-900 mbar (or even a sub-890 mbar) system starting mid to late Sunday. The latest GFS run shows it developing into a TD within 48 hours and making landfall in the Philippines by 130+ hours.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#700 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:56 pm

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