TheProfessor wrote:6z 84 hour NAM goes out to 18z Friday. Right now it has cooler temps than the 0z GFS at that time. There's a temperature inversion at the surface, which would mean elevated convection, which would limit any tornado threat early in the day. What is interesting is how much turning it has in the low levels, absolutely crazy. If you get some surface heating in the afternoon with that amount of turning, look out! There is a small layer of VBV, which is something to watch the next few days. Hour 84 NAM is like hour 240 GFS so a lot can change still, but I do think this could be something more people need to pay attention too and I'm worried the cooler temps midweek could lure people into a false sense of security.
I'm learning more toward the NAM with high's on Friday in the 67-69 range as I don't see many peaks of sun. There may be a brief break in the cloud cover late in the afternoon, but the front is expected to pass through DFW around 6pm or after which of course by then the sun has dropped below the horizen. While the tornado threat in not 0, it is low but I think the biggest issue may be hail from some of the stronger cells, quarter to golfball size.
Something else to watch as well is the highs on Thursday, the trend has been lower temps from 56 now down to 52, and may trend a little lower to upper 40's. The next cold front is expected over night Sunday with monday and tuesday forecast to be in the 50's. Front could be a little earlier Sunday than expected.