NWS outlook for Friday evening
The main show appears now to be Friday night through at least
midday or early afternoon Saturday as models have slowed down the
arrival of the deep latitudinal and broad Western CONUS trough
eastward across the Central Rockies and over the Plains. This has
delayed the arrival of the initial surface trough to the late
nighttime hours which will help limit the threat for strong to
severe storms at least somewhat. With this delay, I do
wholeheartedly agree with the severe weather risk for this time
frame being limited to Marginal. The environment ahead of the
surface trough will be only marginally unstable despite the
strong wind shear in place. There will still be a risk of a few
strong to possibly marginally severe storms overnight Friday night
into Saturday morning as this feature moves through the area and
exits to the east around midday Saturday.
Wind and hail will be the primary threat over night, but can't rule out a brief tornado or two from the stronger cells.