Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Cerlin]

Definitely onboard with that 1050 high coming down the plains mid month. Liking the ensemble shifts so far. Very much looking forward to tomorrow’s runs to see if these trends continue.

[Brent]

the EPS has the greatest cold east of us

[Lagreeneyes03]

18z GFS would be absolutely crippling, easily 2+ inches of liquid precipitation falling at frozen precip. This would make the 2013 Ice storm look like a tea party. I know yall want winter weather up there, but this isn't what you want. This wouldn't even be something I'd chase if I could lol. Good thing it's 300 hours out where things can drastically change, but I'd seriously think twice about rooting for a solution like this.

This must be why Delkus was saying on FB that he can't rule out a White Christmas this year. Interesting stuff. I

[bubba hotep]

the EPS has the greatest cold east of us

The trend since early Fall has been for the models to correct westward with the cold. There is a good bit of cold air to our north on the Euro, just need to get it down our way.

[bubba hotep]

Last 3 GEFS runs, cold risk seem to be increasing, this could set off another cold stretch lasting into January.

[wxman57]

0Z GFS loses the ice storm completely. Poof! Gone! Not a trace of it. LOL!

How totally shocking....not

I snuck into NCEP and tweaked the 18Z model run as a joke.

[weatherdude1108]

We really need some rain in the Austin area. Been very dry the last few months. Unfortunately both the GFS and Euro look dry the next two weeks.

I've noticed that too. We've had these drizzly/misty events that filth up the cars and do nothing for the soils. I turned on my water Saturday while it was foggy and misting/light raining because my yard soils were dry, and knowing that sunny, breezy, cool weather (evaporation) would prevail for the foreseeable future (and they prorate our water usage during the winter months starting in December for "average Winter usage" on the "sewer" portion of the bill, so I wanted to get as much water down as I could before December 1st ).

I shut my water off in October last year until late Spring because we had those regular rain events and minimal evaporation. Not that fortunate this year.

When it rains this time of the year, it’s usually on the light side. I’ve noticed during the months from November through February when it rains, it’s usually just mist or drizzle.

Yeah, I guess I got spoiled the past few Falls of having heavier rain events, when the pattern was more Ninoesque.

[wxman57]

I see that the 12Z GFS has all that Texas ice and snow (yesterday's 18Z) for the 14th over Illinois and Iowa. Oh well...

Hey! I'll be in Chicago that weekend for a Christmas party. Snow for me!

[EnnisTx]

I see that the 12Z GFS has all that Texas ice and snow (yesterday's 18Z) for the 14th over Illinois and Iowa. Oh well...

Hey! I'll be in Chicago that weekend for a Christmas party. Snow for me!

[weatherdude1108]

Today's CPC maps show some liquid hope over the next couple weeks fwiw. Temps slightly above to slightly below normal. Not crazy worth posting on the temps. I'm more interested in rain at this point.

[weatherdude1108]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
237 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Clear skies are prevailing across South-Central Texas at the present
time with southwesterly flow at the service in response to a surface
low in North Texas. The southwest winds are allowing temperatures to
reach into the 70s for most locations and should see temperatures
rise another couple of degrees before reaching their daily high.
Clear skies will likely continue though the night as a weak frontal
boundary moves into the area on the backside of the low. Minimum
temperatures tonight will reach into the lower 40s for most of the
area. Much of the same can be expected tomorrow with mostly sunny
skies and light northeast winds continuing. Highs tomorrow will top
out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. South winds return Wednesday
night with lows in the middle to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Southwest winds return Thursday in response to the next low pressure
system in the Southern Plains. Highs will reach the middle to upper
70s for most locations. This system will then send a cold front into
the area Thursday night, but with the bulk of the lift to our north,
not expecting any appreciable rainfall with this FROPA. North winds
behind the front Friday morning will be in the 12-20 mph range with
some higher gusts. Lows Friday morning will be in the 40s and 50s
with highs Friday back in the 60s to lower 70s.

The progressive pattern will continue through the beginning of next
week. Southerly flow returns by Saturday afternoon with the next
system/front arriving Monday night. The GFS remains dry with the
FROPA and the wetter ECMWF has become a bit more dry versus its
previous runs. Think the pattern is remaining too progressive for
much rainfall and knocked down the PoPs from the blends to just 20
percent Monday night and into Tuesday.

[Brent]

When the GFS had the ice storm yesterday

[gpsnowman]

When the GFS had the ice storm yesterday

https://i.ibb.co/wKPzq4J/gfs-T2ma-scus-44.png

Seriously? What a farce. Looks like Destin Florida for the win!!!!. Vomit.

[starsfan65]

When the GFS had the ice storm yesterday

https://i.ibb.co/wKPzq4J/gfs-T2ma-scus-44.png

This map will change

[harp]

The gfs is all over the place after about 180 hours.... hard to even see a trend.

[wxman57]

When the GFS had the ice storm yesterday

https://i.ibb.co/wKPzq4J/gfs-T2ma-scus-44.png

Ice storm/heat wave, what's the difference? My coworker, South Texas Storms, was pointing out that the 12Z Euro has 3-6 inches of snow across the Houston area around the 14th-15th. That's the extended range beyond 10 days. I believe it as much as yesterday's 18Z GFS.

Still looking like I might see some significant snow in Chicago that weekend, though...

[harp]

Well, the 0Z GFS is COLD around the 16th on this run. Next run may be in the 70's.

[Brent]

Well, the 0Z GFS is COLD around the 16th on this run. Next run may be in the 70's.

I'll believe it when I see it

I still bet the more interesting weather will be to our NE

[hamburgerman7070]

Well, the 0Z GFS is COLD around the 16th on this run. Next run may be in the 70's.

Harp, focus on the ensembles so far out. I think a few shots of colder weather toward mid month, mainly epo driven, but i believe most want to see some winter precipitation if its cold.

[hamburgerman7070]

Well, the 0Z GFS is COLD around the 16th on this run. Next run may be in the 70's.

I'll believe it when I see it

I still bet the more interesting weather will be to our NE

Ive got my first fantasy snow storm for me.