Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

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northjaxpro
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#21 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:34 am

The 12Z GFS run just rolled in and the GFS is sticking by its guns with a very strong coastal storm next weekend. 12Z run shows the Low Pressure area even a bit farther south than the previous runs, now displaying at 982 mb just offshore the Florida East Coast by 18Z next Sunday afternoon.

One thing I note on this run is that the precip is all in the form of rain, compared to the previous run cycles. The coldest air looks to be just off to the north across New England and across the Northern Mid-Atlantic region this run. It will be interesting to see in future runs if this system can draw down enough cold air southward because if it is able to achieve this, we may have wintry precip over areas of the Deep South next weekend.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#22 Postby carolina_73 » Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:59 am

Not enough cold Canadian air. That's the main culprit. The gfs has been the worst model to look at. It has shown at least 2 or 3 storms spreading decent snow outside the mountains and with colder temps than the euro. I just mainly look at the euro now and it's not showing anything outside the mountains for the rest of the month. Hoping we get a real deal -NAO come January and then hopefully the south can see better chances. I've seen a quite a few forecasts saying the mountains and foothills having a bad winter. Think they will bust this winter imo. Need that strong cold artic air to be locked and loaded and spreading south. I just have a feeling it won't be dropping down as much and we end up having a milder winter and more of a mix or ice storm events. Hopefully I'm wrong! I rather have the fluffy stuff. Anyone like to chime in and give their early inputs for winter 2019/2020?
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#23 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Dec 15, 2019 12:22 pm

:uarrow: Yeah no doubt we need that Siberian air or at least a chunk of that air to come down across the Eastern CONUS. I just spoke about this very fact in the Florida Thread.

We just have yet to see a true dump of Arctic air yet , but let's see how January fares. The NAO is at least finally going negative, so we will just wait and see if the Greenland Blocking scheme can get going to bring cold down as time progresses
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#24 Postby xironman » Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:31 am

The new GFS is still struggling with snow prediction in the long range. Last years performance was egregious, we will see if they have fix some of the problems. The Hi-Res while still overdoing it seems ok inside 120hr.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#25 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:05 pm

GFS has been struggling consistently with this storm system for the past several days. It has been all over the place with this. The only thing I will say is we will have a potent wind and rain maker of some type down especally across Florida this upcoming weekend. There is no real cold here for it to tap so it will not be a storm to bring any wintry precip , like it was showing a couple of days ago that is for sure.

12Z GFS for 12Z Decmber 22 (Sunday morning)

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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#26 Postby xironman » Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:38 pm

Looks like FL will get a decent storm out of this. The 0c 850 line is in southern Maine.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#27 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:12 pm

Well, if you believe the Canadian Model, there possibly may be just enough cold air at the surface to create a cold air damming situation potentially in Virginia and North Carolina this weekend. The Canadian is showing a 1037 mb Polar High, centered over Maine to build down the Eastern U.S. seaboard and funnel some cold air down the Lee side of the Appalachians. Some wintry precip being shown on this model. This is for 00Z Saturdayevening.

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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#28 Postby xironman » Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:58 am

Nobody can bring the crazy like the CMC, 850's supporting snow over New Orleans?

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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#29 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:48 am

:uarrow: The CMC at 132 hr is showing a potent 500 mb Closed Upper Low moving right over Louisiana. Surface.temps in mid 40s being shown on the run.

I have seen it snow, even at times mixed with rain with these strong upper Lows on a couple of occasions with surface temps in the 40s. These UL carry very cold air columns aloft, so this scenario, although not likely, it is a plausible possibility, not very far-fetched in any aspect, especially if the models verify with the potential dynamics of this system.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#30 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:40 am

The interesting thing to see over time with this potential system is if this will attempt to transition into a system which potentially could acquire subtropical characteristics as we still have warm ssts present within the GOM, which have been slow to cool down from abnormal warm levels a few months ago. This is another interesting element to watch for sure.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#31 Postby harp » Tue Dec 17, 2019 12:11 pm

This is in La La land, but check out the 12Z GFS at hour 312. Is that a ULL over south Louisiana? It shows snow.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#32 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:36 pm

12Z EURO has Gulf Storm nearly stationary or very slow drift east /southeast over the Northeast GOM in Apalachee Bay near Apalachicola at 12Z Sunday morning

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500 mb analysis shows strong ridging from New England and Mid Atlantic extending west into the Northern and Central Plains. Should this verify, it is blocking the system from moving out quickly from the Gulf region and away from the Florida peninsula into early next week.

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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#33 Postby Hammy » Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:30 pm

The takeaway is that the models (CFS as well) are trending towards a fairly significant cold air outbreak (with possible snow somewhere in the Southeast) around the first or second week of January, but this particular run is quite insane, unlikely as it is.

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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#34 Postby FireRat » Tue Dec 24, 2019 12:37 am

:uarrow:
Wow, that's quite a 10,000 B.C. Ice age type of run. :lol: :cold:
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#35 Postby xironman » Wed Dec 25, 2019 7:06 am

Never underestimate the SE ridge

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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#36 Postby Hammy » Wed Dec 25, 2019 1:06 pm

:uarrow: This seems like it's become the permanent winter setup the last several years.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#37 Postby carolina_73 » Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:09 am

I think it's a going to be one boring winter for the Southeast, but I hope i'm wrong. Euro almost nailed December and long range shows a positive NAO for Jan and Feb. Southwest flow with warmer temps.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#38 Postby snowpocalypse » Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:52 am

There's wintry stuff on the radar this weekend in NC for the high country, at least. Appears to be novelty amounts but at this point bring on anything..
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#39 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:15 am

carolina_73 wrote:I think it's a going to be one boring winter for the Southeast, but I hope i'm wrong. Euro almost nailed December and long range shows a positive NAO for Jan and Feb. Southwest flow with warmer temps.


Yeah, we are entering the brand new decade just like how much of the past decade has been during.meteorological winter seasons, dealing with the ever persistent positive NAO index. The big Southeast U.S. ridge has become just about a permanent fixture during winters around here every year.

This truly remains one of the most fascinating and persistent anomalous weather patterns I have ever seen occur in all my years in this profession, and it just will not reverse itself during meteorological winter seasons for the Southeastern United States. For a lot of folks in the Deep South, it is getting to the point now that we just do not have any true "winter" seasons any more. It definitely is not so compared to previous decades that is for sure.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#40 Postby Hammy » Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:21 pm

Looks like another no-snow winter for northeast Georgia, that much is pretty certain.
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