ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11181 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:30 pm


I think it comes down to what MJO/CCKW activity does over the Pacific in the next few months.

Surprisingly the MJO will be back over the Pacific soon, making it its 2nd trip in that phase in less than 3 weeks. The MJO typically takes 30-45 days to circle the planet, and so if the MJO continues to frequent the Pacific this often, it's what we normally see during pre-El Nino. Models are differing with the amplitude with the GFS stronger and the Euro weaker. GFS could be over doing it, as it did the same thing last year only for the MJO to be weaker. Of course with the MJO (regardless of strength) comes westerly winds, and the GFS has a WWB in its forecast. This will likely mean the subsurface will remain warm if not become warmer.

The pattern from prior years seems to be continuing but as 2017 and 2019 showed, we could still get La Nina or Neutral. I like where the CPC has its odds.
Image
4 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138893
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO: CPC January update: 50% chance of Neutral thru Summer

#11182 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:21 pm

4 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138893
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#11183 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:56 pm

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11184 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:06 pm

:uarrow:
IMO Weather-heads have been quieter than normal on social media about the warming subsurface and the repeat WWB's near the dateline. I think it's due to what's happened in the past three years, as people will bring up the El Nino fail in 2017, weaker than advertised El Nino in 2018, and another El Nino fail that lead to warm Neutral in 2019. However it's normal to see El Nino attempts during a warm PDO regime. Plus what doesn't help the Nino argument is that the models continue to show a La Nina for the summer.

What Eric Webb is tweeting is 100% true. It has been like this since late fall. We'll have to wait and see if something disrupts the process similar to last year.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11185 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:15 am

CPC reverted their subsurface graphic back to the old color scheme:
Image
7 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138893
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#11186 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:24 am

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1644
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#11187 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:33 am

Kingarabian wrote:CPC reverted their subsurface graphic back to the old color scheme:
https://i.imgur.com/duBPZFn.png


Ah, so much better
2 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11188 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:39 pm

Nino 3.4 down to +0.5C this week.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2312
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#11189 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:05 am

will be neutral conditions again
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#11190 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:17 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:will be neutral conditions again

You can't make definitive ENSO forecasts for hurricane season in January. All options are still possible, including Neutral, El Niño and La Niña.
5 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11191 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:38 pm

OHC has been steadily rising and is approaching the same levels from last spring, with the core of the warmth in the WPAC/CPAC.
Image

Present subsurface snapshot doesn't scream full fledged El Nino. But the thermocline continues to be suppressed with the mean 29C and 28C lines well into the CPAC. 25C and 24C are present off of Peru. So despite the models trying to push for La Nina, the temperature profiles @ the subsurface are far from a La Nina.There is a building upwelling Kelvin wave that pushed off the MC, but with this substantial WWB event beginning I think it will be kept in check. We'll probably start to see +4C/+5C anomalies building as well.
Image

Key thing here is how long all these "El Nino indicators" persist. The 12z Euro shows lower than normal pressures over Darwin and normal Tahiti pressures for the next 10 days -- which mean a positive leaning SOI. Latest EPS 46 day by the end of its run, is hinting that the IO standing wave could move over the MC which could mean that the atmosphere is opening the door towards La Nina. On the contrary, per RMM the latest GFS and Euro runs show the MJO not making it to the IO and MC and bring it back over the WPAC again:
Image
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2312
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#11192 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:31 am

CyclonicFury wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:will be neutral conditions again

You can't make definitive ENSO forecasts for hurricane season in January. All options are still possible, including Neutral, El Niño and La Niña.



I said the same thing last year and look what happened, Models struggled on it bad the last 2 years and it will struggle again. Neutral conditions again just watch my man.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138893
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#11193 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:34 am

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19140
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ENSO Updates

#11194 Postby tolakram » Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:41 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:will be neutral conditions again

You can't make definitive ENSO forecasts for hurricane season in January. All options are still possible, including Neutral, El Niño and La Niña.



I said the same thing last year and look what happened, Models struggled on it bad the last 2 years and it will struggle again. Neutral conditions again just watch my man.


So are you claiming to be correct because of science and observation, or dumb luck? I don't like definitive statements, I think they're silly. Discussion is good, and interesting, which is what this thread is about. The only definitive statement that really works at this point is we have no clue what the future holds.
5 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#11195 Postby Hammy » Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:12 am

tolakram wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:You can't make definitive ENSO forecasts for hurricane season in January. All options are still possible, including Neutral, El Niño and La Niña.



I said the same thing last year and look what happened, Models struggled on it bad the last 2 years and it will struggle again. Neutral conditions again just watch my man.


So are you claiming to be correct because of science and observation, or dumb luck? I don't like definitive statements, I think they're silly. Discussion is good, and interesting, which is what this thread is about. The only definitive statement that really works at this point is we have no clue what the future holds.


Isn't there also a general rule of sorts not to come to any conclusions with El Nino prior to April?
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#11196 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:02 pm

Hammy wrote:
tolakram wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:

I said the same thing last year and look what happened, Models struggled on it bad the last 2 years and it will struggle again. Neutral conditions again just watch my man.


So are you claiming to be correct because of science and observation, or dumb luck? I don't like definitive statements, I think they're silly. Discussion is good, and interesting, which is what this thread is about. The only definitive statement that really works at this point is we have no clue what the future holds.


Isn't there also a general rule of sorts not to come to any conclusions with El Nino prior to April?

Yes, the so called Spring Barrier should shed some light come May.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11197 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:56 pm

Hammy wrote:
tolakram wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:

I said the same thing last year and look what happened, Models struggled on it bad the last 2 years and it will struggle again. Neutral conditions again just watch my man.


So are you claiming to be correct because of science and observation, or dumb luck? I don't like definitive statements, I think they're silly. Discussion is good, and interesting, which is what this thread is about. The only definitive statement that really works at this point is we have no clue what the future holds.


Isn't there also a general rule of sorts not to come to any conclusions with El Nino prior to April?

When ENSO is switching to weak La Nina or El Nino, and even Neutral, it's tough to know before May. Moderate (or stronger) La Nina's and El Nino's can be easier to predict through late winter and spring due to a lot of atmospheric and oceanic momentum pointing the favored way, but this too is not always the case.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11198 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:09 pm

Also wanted to point out how this WWB and recent WWB's since late fall have not just been anomalously weaker trades, but they are actual real and strong westerly winds present and moving across the CPAC:
Image
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11199 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:56 am

The MJO has a active convective mode (rising motion) and suppressed convective mode (sinking motion). Usually after the MJO active convective mode passes a region, the suppressed mode fills in which leads to less convection and at the same time, opens the door for trades to become above average within the region. Some interesting developments is that the CFS and EPS both show the suppressed mode of the MJO not impacting the dateline as they showed 3-4 days ago. Looks like a weak and fragile El Nino "standing wave" setting up and overpowering the MJO signal. We'll see if this lasts. Last year we saw similar scenarios only for El Nino to break down by the start of summer.

EPS:
Old
Image
New
Image
Credit: Ryan Maue @ http://www.Weathermodels.com

CFS:
Image
Carl Schreck @ NCICS.org

Edit: GFS joining the party:
Image
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11200 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:24 pm

Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C this week.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], kevin, MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS, Teban54, zal0phus and 66 guests