Texas Winter 2019-2020

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gpsnowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3081 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:49 pm

Quixotic wrote:18z GFS with one more troll job.

Mike Ventrice talks of a negative EPO as March arrives. Too little too late?
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3082 Postby TXdaddy217 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:52 pm

Quixotic wrote:18z GFS with one more troll job.

Was just gonna comment on that. Looks good if it holds out. :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3083 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:45 pm

the winter of cold rains :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3084 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:48 pm

Brent wrote:the winter of cold rains :lol:


I wish areas farther south could get in on some cold rain action! All we get is drizzle...

Models had our area getting up to 1 inch of rain with this event and it looks like most will be seeing less than 0.25 inch. :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3085 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:31 pm

Today's rain at DFW moves us up to 2nd wettest start to the year. 03z HRRR shows almost another 1" at DFW but even that will leave us well short of '32 and 1st place.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3086 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:30 am

bubba hotep wrote:Today's rain at DFW moves us up to 2nd wettest start to the year. 03z HRRR shows almost another 1" at DFW but even that will leave us well short of '32 and 1st place.


Lucky! I wish we were having a record wet start to the year down here.

Hey if yall can complain about no snow all winter then I can complain about a lack of rain :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3087 Postby Cerlin » Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:47 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Today's rain at DFW moves us up to 2nd wettest start to the year. 03z HRRR shows almost another 1" at DFW but even that will leave us well short of '32 and 1st place.


Lucky! I wish we were having a record wet start to the year down here.

Hey if yall can complain about no snow all winter then I can complain about a lack of rain :wink:

By all means! We’d love to send you some of our extra rain if it means we can complain about our snow hole a little more. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3088 Postby jasons2k » Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:01 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
Brent wrote:the winter of cold rains :lol:


I wish areas farther south could get in on some cold rain action! All we get is drizzle...

Models had our area getting up to 1 inch of rain with this event and it looks like most will be seeing less than 0.25 inch. :(


Yep, I was expecting about an inch over here, and I've had nothing but drizzle.They busted last week too - not only with the precip., but also with the temps too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3089 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:08 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Today's rain at DFW moves us up to 2nd wettest start to the year. 03z HRRR shows almost another 1" at DFW but even that will leave us well short of '32 and 1st place.


Lucky! I wish we were having a record wet start to the year down here.

Hey if yall can complain about no snow all winter then I can complain about a lack of rain :wink:


I wish I could give you all the rain that we and the folks up north of me have been receiving for the last six weeks. The rivers are way too high here, my front lawn is turning into a swamp, and I'm sure you're aware of what happening up in Jackson, Ms
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3090 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:50 am

TheProfessor wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Today's rain at DFW moves us up to 2nd wettest start to the year. 03z HRRR shows almost another 1" at DFW but even that will leave us well short of '32 and 1st place.


Lucky! I wish we were having a record wet start to the year down here.

Hey if yall can complain about no snow all winter then I can complain about a lack of rain :wink:


I wish I could give you all the rain that we and the folks up north of me have been receiving for the last six weeks. The rivers are way too high here, my front lawn is turning into a swamp, and I'm sure you're aware of what happening up in Jackson, Ms


Yeah I know the yard is so swampy here too I'm so over it and my mom lives in Alabama and it's even worse over there shes over it too and they didn't see any snow the other week either like places nearby did(sounds familiar to DFW's winter) :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3091 Postby Tejas89 » Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:54 pm

We don't see the frequency or severity of arctic outbreaks we used to. DFW hasn't recorded a single digit low since the 90s. The record books of this millennium are chock full of record highs and record high minimums... with a small dusting of record lows.

Growing up in NTX in the 70s-80s, we could count on some sleet/ice and a decent snowfall or two. What happened to the once-fabled Dallas ice storms?
Of course I remember many, many busts back then as forecasting wasn't as advanced. But that was still the good ole days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3092 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:26 pm

Southern Texas hasn't been as fortunate with the rains as central and northern areas. But it looks like above normal precip and below normal temps in the short term for southern Texas at least.

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Latest Seasonal Assessment - Drought will likely persist in the Pacific Northwest, with additional drought expected to develop in Oregon and eastern Washington in association with below-normal precipitation favored during the March-April-May (MAM) period. Drought development is also becoming more likely across much of California due to a drier than normal wet season heading into to the upcoming climatological dry season. The long-term drought in the Four Corners region will likely persist as warmer and drier conditions are forecast for much of the Southwest. Some southward expansion of drought into Arizona and New Mexico is also favored. Much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS has seen above-normal precipitation in recent months due to a progressive jet stream pattern and active storm track. As such, the northern High Plains, Midwest, Northeast, and much of the Southeast will likely remain drought free. Drought conditions have improved in recent weeks in central Texas (Southern region) due to rainfall in excess of 6 inches in central portions of the state. However, drought is favored to continue for portions of Southern Texas south of the I-10 corridor extending from the Rio Grande Valley to inland areas of the Gulf Coast. Additional development may occur in western portions of the Southern region in association with above-normal temperatures coupled with below-normal precipitation favored for the period. In the Southeast, drought removal (D1 areas) and improvement (D2 areas) is favored for the Florida Panhandle, with above-normal precipitation favored across all short-range and long-range forecasts. Recent positive precipitation anomalies and continued above-normal precipitation favored over all of Alaska in the short-term favors no drought development for the period. Drought improvement or removal is likely in Hawaii, with enhanced probabilities for above-normal precipitation during the period. Although conditions are drier than normal in northwestern Puerto Rico, drought development is not favored due to weak precipitation signals.


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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3093 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:45 pm

Tejas89 wrote:We don't see the frequency or severity of arctic outbreaks we used to. DFW hasn't recorded a single digit low since the 90s. The record books of this millennium are chock full of record highs and record high minimums... with a small dusting of record lows.

Growing up in NTX in the 70s-80s, we could count on some sleet/ice and a decent snowfall or two. What happened to the once-fabled Dallas ice storms?
Of course I remember many, many busts back then as forecasting wasn't as advanced. But that was still the good ole days.


Heck I moved here in 2014 and I haven't seen an ice storm yet

I don't know what's up I mean did we just have enough snow in the first part of the decade to last 10-20 years or what lol

Or is the pattern really changing where it's gonna be less and less likely? The number of record highs vs lows lately we've set is definitely concerning

but then I think about the last few storms and it wasn't like it was too warm statewide... I mean it snowed south of us, so what gives? Nothing makes any sense to me anymore about this.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3094 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:03 pm

I'm starting to lose my cold tolerance. The windchill is down to 43 degrees and I went out in my t-shirt and shorts to walk the dog and it was a little bit chilly. :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3095 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:56 pm

I’m 54 and have lived through two infamous ice storms, one in Memphis as a kid (the same ice storm that crippled Dallas in Jan. 1979) and the Silver Christmas ice storm here in the Red River Valley in December 2000.

Be careful what you ask for. There is nothing desirable about a history making ice storm.

In the 2000 storm here in Denison, it was in the mid-20s on Christmas Day with heavy rain. The ice buildup in trees and on powerlines was horrible that afternoon and overnight. I stood on my front porch that night watching transformers blow on my end of town as power lines started coming down.

I was the news and sports director for two local radio stations and worked three straight days from dark to dark relaying information to our listeners. I was on the air every 15 minutes.

The roads weren’t too bad as a whole, but the bridges were and there was a fatality accident or two. No one had power or generators, the newspaper had problems printing and delivering, and few people could see any of the TV news. Radio info was all many people had.

The power grid was crippled here in Grayson County as big transmission towers crumpled, power lines snapped, poles buckled, and big trees came down. The tree damage from here to Broken Bow, Oklahoma was extensive.

Thousands went without power for days to weeks - the street directly behind my house was without power for right at two weeks.

Big snowstorm? Yes, give me all you want. Crippling ice storm? No thanks, you can keep them.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3096 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:13 pm

Tejas89 wrote:We don't see the frequency or severity of arctic outbreaks we used to. DFW hasn't recorded a single digit low since the 90s. The record books of this millennium are chock full of record highs and record high minimums... with a small dusting of record lows.

Growing up in NTX in the 70s-80s, we could count on some sleet/ice and a decent snowfall or two. What happened to the once-fabled Dallas ice storms?
Of course I remember many, many busts back then as forecasting wasn't as advanced. But that was still the good ole days.

It has to be due to the concrete. Only 2 hours North, this is the first year in a long time that we haven’t registered a single digit low.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3097 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 20, 2020 9:56 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Tejas89 wrote:We don't see the frequency or severity of arctic outbreaks we used to. DFW hasn't recorded a single digit low since the 90s. The record books of this millennium are chock full of record highs and record high minimums... with a small dusting of record lows.

Growing up in NTX in the 70s-80s, we could count on some sleet/ice and a decent snowfall or two. What happened to the once-fabled Dallas ice storms?
Of course I remember many, many busts back then as forecasting wasn't as advanced. But that was still the good ole days.

It has to be due to the concrete. Only 2 hours North, this is the first year in a long time that we haven’t registered a single digit low.


Increased urbanization and the disregard of the effect it has on the boundary layer is something that doesn't get talked about enough amongst meteorologist and climatologist imo. We have the Urban Heat Island effect, but I personally think it extends beyond that with changes in our heat budget.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3098 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:14 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:I’m 54 and have lived through two infamous ice storms, one in Memphis as a kid (the same ice storm that crippled Dallas in Jan. 1979) and the Silver Christmas ice storm here in the Red River Valley in December 2000.

Be careful what you ask for. There is nothing desirable about a history making ice storm.

In the 2000 storm here in Denison, it was in the mid-20s on Christmas Day with heavy rain. The ice buildup in trees and on powerlines was horrible that afternoon and overnight. I stood on my front porch that night watching transformers blow on my end of town as power lines started coming down.

I was the news and sports director for two local radio stations and worked three straight days from dark to dark relaying information to our listeners. I was on the air every 15 minutes.

The roads weren’t too bad as a whole, but the bridges were and there was a fatality accident or two. No one had power or generators, the newspaper had problems printing and delivering, and few people could see any of the TV news. Radio info was all many people had.

The power grid was crippled here in Grayson County as big transmission towers crumpled, power lines snapped, poles buckled, and big trees came down. The tree damage from here to Broken Bow, Oklahoma was extensive.

Thousands went without power for days to weeks - the street directly behind my house was without power for right at two weeks.

Big snowstorm? Yes, give me all you want. Crippling ice storm? No thanks, you can keep them.


oh I don't want an ice storm either... it was just fitting into talking about the lack of extreme cold and snow lately...
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3099 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:21 am

Another 0.5" of cold rain this week. Should be a decent wildflower season I would think. But that is for the Spring thread I guess. :P :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3100 Postby Portastorm » Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:01 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:Another 0.5" of cold rain this week. Should be a decent wildflower season I would think. But that is for the Spring thread I guess. :P :D


I drove down and back to the Rio Grande Valley this week for work and saw a lot of bluebonnets (already!) along I-37 south of San Antonio.
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