Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8901
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#61 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:49 pm

Looks like tonight's 00Z GFS has a potential interesting set-up of wintry precip/ snow for portions of the Carolinas beginning Thursday evening.

A strong 1043 mb Polar High will dive down out of Canada, to be positioned over Northern Illinois by late Thursday night. Sufficient moisture and a wave of Low pressure is being depicted to develop along the southern stream jet just off the coast of South Carolina late Thursday night into Friday morning. Thermal profiles definitely look favorable with partial thickness 540 line dipping down as far south of the South Carolina midlands into Friday morning. The big question early on here is if the deep cold air will arrive in time by Friday before the moisture moves out of the region.

The 00Z NAM is really aggressive with this situation, indicating upwards to 6 inches of snow across the central N.C. Piedmont and across extreme Eastern North Carolina, wth as much as 1-2 inches across North Georgia, and 2-4 inches from Columbia, SC to the Western North Carolina Piedmont. 00Z GFS not near as aggressive as the NAM, showing generally 1-2 inch potential snow accumulation.

Awaiting the 00Z EURO later, but an interesting situation potentially unfolding next 48-72 hours across the South as we may be seeing another winter storm in mid to late February, after such a another warm winter season for the most part. So, will monitor this the next couple of days.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

snowpocalypse
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2016 7:24 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#62 Postby snowpocalypse » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:07 am

Looks interesting. It's the first 'maybe something' outside of the mountains I've seen this season. Panovich has a good breakdown here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6KUJqBCh70
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8901
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#63 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:25 pm

Looks like the latest 00Z NAM is highlighting this to be a rather significant winter storm for Deep South standards for the Central Piedmont of North Carolina and Northeastern areas of North Carolina beginning late tomorrow morning, and continuing into late tomorrow night. NWS WFOs in both Raleigh and Greenville/Spartanburg has posted Winter Weather Advisories for tomorrow morning into the afternoon tomorrow for much of the NC Mountains and Western Piedmont on North Carolina and eastward through Central N.C. Piedmont region to the Northeastern NC. for The 18Z GFS earlier was depicting generally 1-2 inch amounts mostly, with amounts of up to 5 inches into areas from Durham east to Rocky Mount, and eastward to the coast near Elizabeth City on Friday.


00Z GFS and 00Z EURO will be out a bit later..
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8901
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#64 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:46 am

Latest guidance early this morning has Jacksonville NWS WFO getting down to 33 degrees for Saturday morning. We may see only just the third freeze of this meteorological winter season.

Friday the rain will be ending, an the sky will be clearing as cold Polar High from the Mid MS Valley region builds down into the Deep South. It will be cold and windy with brisk North winds and temps strugling to reach 50 degrees for max temps across Northeast Florida on tomorrow.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8901
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#65 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:09 am

Snow is expected to arrive by early afternoon, possibly even a bit earlier before noon, in the NC Western Piedmont , and Charlotte metro, and then arrive over the Central Piedmont around I-40 corridor from Greensboro eastward to Rocky Mount by late afternoon.

Rain will mix with sleet at times along the I-95 corridor during the afternoon , before the deeper colder air arrives there from Lumberton north to I-40 corridor, and points eastward through late afternoon. It will changeover to all snow everywhere else by sunset.
Lumberton to Fayetteville expecting up to 2 inches. The I-40 corridor could see 2-4 inches, and areas across Northeast NC.

EDIT: NWS WFO in Raleigh has upgraded much of Northeastern NC to a Winter Storm Warning. This includes Goldsboro, Rocky Mount, and Elizabeth City areas.

Also, NWS WFO in Wakefield, VA has posted a Winter Storm Warning for extreme Southeastern Virginia, which includes Norfolk, Virgina Beach and Wakefield areas. Forecast of upwards to 4 inches in those areas

Image
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8901
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#66 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:26 pm

The snow has commenced in Greensboro, NC now, moderate snow, 33 degrees currently , 3/4 mile visibility. Raleigh also has rain/ snow mix currently, 38 degrees. The changeover is in progress all along the I-40 corridor in the Central NC Piedmont region. They are going to see some significant accumulations now right on into through the evening.

Also, looking at radar, it looks like extreme North Georgia will get a potential dusting to up to an inch in some spots as the back edge of the trough axis is pivoting through that region currently. It is snowing in Chattanooga , TN, and across extreme NW Georgia, and over extreme Northeast GA mountains. It is also snowing, with sleet mixing in at times , along the I-85 corridor again in upstate SC around Greenville/Spartanburg area. Charlotte, NC metro will be changing over very shortly to snow within the next hour. They may see a brief light snow/flurries in metro Atlanta late tonight/early Friday, before the precip clears out.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8901
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#67 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:59 am

The Central NC Piedmont region was the sweet spot for yesterday's winter storm in the South. The Interstate 40 corridor from Greensboro east to Rocky Mount had the heaviest accumulations, with generally 2-3 inches along that stretch. Greensboro had just under 3 inches and Raleigh International Airport reported 2.5 inches. Goldsboro, NC reported 1.5 inches, as did Rocky Mount.

Elsewhere, outside of the Central NC Piedmont region, most amounts were generally light, with most areas vetting less than 1/2 inch accumulations.

Models are hinting later next week of another potential of a Deep South wintry event by Thursday into Friday. GFS, Canadian are latching onto a vigorous mid-upper level disturbance , which will be diving down rapidly southeast on the polar jet stream with a very sharply amplified upper level trough into the Deep South late next week. Too doon obviously to determine potential impacts, and of course, how.much.moisture will be in place is the HUGE question at this juncture. But, most definitely, something worth following closely with future model runs for the next several days.
1 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

snowpocalypse
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2016 7:24 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#68 Postby snowpocalypse » Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:58 pm

Another couple of rounds of light stuff headed to the southern Appalachians today through Saturday. It seems winter has capped the 'single-event' max accumulation at 3-4" this season :cry:
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests