2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

The 2020 thread for models is up but all is quiet in the Atlantic on the models front at this first day of the year. Let's see if this year brings some upgrades to models.

[Homie J]

GFS has been consistent in forming two cyclones north of Australia around monday.
ECWMF has something somewhat similar to gfs as well.

[aspen]

The GFS is still consistent with a system forming this weekend NW/NNW of Australia that ends up strengthening into a <950 mbar storm next week.

[wxman57]

I'd give it a 70-80% chance of a TC forming off NW Australia Monday or Tuesday. First one of the season. I can see it already starting to take shape on satellite.

[Homie J]

I'd give it a 70-80% chance of a TC forming off NW Australia Monday or Tuesday. First one of the season. I can see it already starting to take shape on satellite.

Where are you getting the satellite imagery?

[gatorcane]

I'd give it a 70-80% chance of a TC forming off NW Australia Monday or Tuesday. First one of the season. I can see it already starting to take shape on satellite.

Where are you getting the satellite imagery?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[aspen]

GFS is pretty aggressive in its 06z run and has a 921 mbar system making landfall in NW Australia in 120 hrs. The Euro has remained very, very tame, with barely any development.

[Astromanía]

GFS is pretty aggressive in its 06z run and has a 921 mbar system making landfall in NW Australia in 120 hrs. The Euro has remained very, very tame, with barely any development.

NW Australia is not that populated, isn't it? or how can that system potentiallly affect that area?, is any city over there?

[1900hurricane]

It's Invest 91S now.

[Astromanía]

GFS is pretty aggressive in its 06z run and has a 921 mbar system making landfall in NW Australia in 120 hrs. The Euro has remained very, very tame, with barely any development.

GFS is not that bullish anymore but show it reaching major status still, tho maybe land interaction could prevent that to happen because it will be to close to land, but idk...

[Monsoonjr99]

ECM teasing in January

[TheStormExpert]

ECM teasing in January

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Trfw5Fp/ecmwf-uv850-vort-atl-6.png [/url]

Wouldn’t be the first time, remember Alex in 2016?

[cycloneye]

Nothing to see here.

[cycloneye]

GFS makes a very small comeback but ECMWF still dominates.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1222746480513110016

[Calasanjy]

The latest GFS model runs show some scary activity possible in the coming 2 weeks in the South Pacific - 3 tropical cyclones in fact. The first one (potential Uesi) is invest 92L. It shows 2 further storms (potential Vicky and Wasi) reaching 930 mb intensity thereafter with the third storm nearing Fiji. I believe an MJO is forecast to move over the region during this time.

[cycloneye]

The surprise is the CMC passing GFS.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1229491471914602499

[cycloneye]

This for early 2022.

Two new Cray computers, an operational primary and backup, will be located in Manassas, Virginia, and Phoenix. The computers — each with a 12 petaflop capacity — will be operational and ready to implement model upgrades by early 2022 after a period of code migration and testing. They will replace the existing Cray and Dell systems, "Luna" and "Mars" in Reston, Virginia, and "Surge" and "Venus" in Orlando, Florida.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-t ... g-capacity

[cycloneye]

More upgrades to GEFS and FV3 comming.

 https://twitter.com/wxjoe/status/1234879103825825794

[CyclonicFury]

More upgrades to GEFS and FV3 comming.

https://twitter.com/wxjoe/status/1234879103825825794

I'm ready for season cancelling to happen when the late July 35 day GEFS shows nothing through early September.

[cycloneye]

Maybe or not? This is 12z GFS on days 10-12. 12z ECMWF has something on day 9 in NGOM but goes inland to the northeast.