ENSO Updates

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1177
Age: 21
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#11481 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue May 05, 2020 11:08 am

Shell Mound wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:BOM down to +0.32°C as well. The buoys show a developing tongue of cool anomalies in the Niño 3 region, and the warm subsurface anomalies have all but dissipated. The 30-day SOI average has increased to +1.6. Without any significant WWBs likely in the near future, the cooling seems likely to continue, and it may be a long time before +0.5°C is ever reached again.

However, FMA came in at +0.5°C, the fifth straight trimonthly value to reach the El Niño threshold. 2019-20 may be retroactively classified as a weak El Niño event.

What is your best estimate as to the earliest we may see trimonthly ONI values (NINO 3.4) in Niña territory in 2020? Based on current trends, while there likely won’t be any significant WWBs from now on, there also doesn’t appear to be any sustained period of well-above-average trades. I still don’t see any evidence that the CFSv2 and other bullish models will verify in regard to La Niña by ASO. Cool neutral ENSO seems to be the best bet at this point. This does make a difference in terms of steering, however, since cool neutral ENSO will likely feature less of a pronounced -PDO signature than weak La Niña or stronger. This would allow for more periods of +PNA-driven ridging along the West Coast, along with troughs along the Eastern Seaboard. Combined with an active MDR, this could imply less of a risk of landfalls on the CONUS. So ENSO conditions by ASO do matter.

I would say the absolute earliest we could see La Niña in JAS, maybe ASO. It's definitely not out of the question we could be in a weak La Niña by late summer if trades increase in strength in June/July.

I think you are overestimating the difference between cool neutral ENSO and weak La Niña ENSO. The ACE difference is negligible. For the Atlantic, the absence of El Niño is the most important.

As for landfalls, a paper from FSU suggests little difference between neutral and La Niña:
"Most previous ENSO impact studies have shown differences in hurricane activity between El Niño , neutral, and La Niña phases. In this study, differences are only observed in one out of the three phases. Along the East Coast, the effects of the El Niño and neutral phases are essentially the same, such that the scenario becomes El Niño/neutral vs. La Niña. Along the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida, there is a similar scenario. In this case, the effects of the La Niña and neutral phases are nearly identical, creating a La Niña/neutral vs. El Niño scenario."

Link to paper: https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/tropical-weather/regional-effects-of-enso-on-us-hurricane-landfalls#El%20Nino/La%20Nina
8 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119230
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates: New ECMWF update of May has La Niña for ASO

#11482 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 05, 2020 11:38 am

3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4457
Age: 42
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ENSO Updates

#11483 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 05, 2020 9:40 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Here is the new Euro seasonal for May. Once again it trended cooler with ENSO. Quite intriguing considering it supposedly has a warm-ENSO bias.

When was the last time it showed a bona fide La Niña like this around this time of the year? 2011, maybe?
https://i.ibb.co/LJXVrjM/ezgif-2-10f05974a73d.gif


What's the precip look like?
0 likes   

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#11484 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue May 05, 2020 10:54 pm

SFLcane wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Here is the new Euro seasonal for May. Once again it trended cooler with ENSO. Quite intriguing considering it supposedly has a warm-ENSO bias.

When was the last time it showed a bona fide La Niña like this around this time of the year? 2011, maybe?
https://i.ibb.co/LJXVrjM/ezgif-2-10f05974a73d.gif


What's the precip look like?

Image
0 likes   

JetFuel_SE
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 36
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#11485 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed May 06, 2020 6:03 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Here is the new Euro seasonal for May. Once again it trended cooler with ENSO. Quite intriguing considering it supposedly has a warm-ENSO bias.

When was the last time it showed a bona fide La Niña like this around this time of the year? 2011, maybe?
https://i.ibb.co/LJXVrjM/ezgif-2-10f05974a73d.gif


What's the precip look like?

https://i.ibb.co/vsN8QJw/ezgif-2-50ab7f342d99.gif


Considering how much of a dry bias the ECMWF seems to have in the MDR and Caribbean, this is concerning.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4457
Age: 42
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ENSO Updates

#11486 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 06, 2020 7:01 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Here is the new Euro seasonal for May. Once again it trended cooler with ENSO. Quite intriguing considering it supposedly has a warm-ENSO bias.

When was the last time it showed a bona fide La Niña like this around this time of the year? 2011, maybe?
https://i.ibb.co/LJXVrjM/ezgif-2-10f05974a73d.gif


What's the precip look like?

https://i.ibb.co/vsN8QJw/ezgif-2-50ab7f342d99.gif


This month the Euro does not look as favorable..That's actually pretty dry except the far south Atlantic. Has the look Maybe a 2007-like season with a couple big Caribbean storms and nothing else. It does have some biases so we'll see. Mdr looks quite cool on the model to
2 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11557
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11487 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 06, 2020 2:50 pm

More strong trades on the way:
Image
6 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 721
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates

#11488 Postby StruThiO » Wed May 06, 2020 3:50 pm

Image

Image

Image

Image
5 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11557
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11489 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 06, 2020 5:15 pm

In their VP200 forecasts the CFS and the Euro have pretty big differences. Entering June, the CFS has a developing rising air branch over the MC while the Euro continues to show strong sinking motion. CFS's solution would be expected given the trend towards La Nina. Euro is ???.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4624
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ENSO Updates

#11490 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed May 06, 2020 5:25 pm

Kingarabian wrote:In their VP200 forecasts the CFS and the Euro have pretty big differences. Entering June, the CFS has a developing rising air branch over the MC while the Euro continues to show strong sinking motion. CFS's solution would be expected given the trend towards La Nina. Euro is ???.

What is your gut telling you will really happen?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11557
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11491 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 07, 2020 2:44 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:In their VP200 forecasts the CFS and the Euro have pretty big differences. Entering June, the CFS has a developing rising air branch over the MC while the Euro continues to show strong sinking motion. CFS's solution would be expected given the trend towards La Nina. Euro is ???.

What is your gut telling you will really happen?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


The CFS solution is what should verify. A La Nina means cooler waters across the equatorial pacific. This will lead to less convection which results in less cloud clover. So the Pacific should have higher pressure and anomalously stronger +VP200 values. So in regards to the Atlantic hurricane season this is theoretically the best possible setup for an above average or hyperactive season. Especially if there's favorable local conditions in the basin.

The confusion with the Euro is that it has a strong sinking branch over the Maritime continent, minimal sinking motion near the dateline, and rising motion over the EPAC due to a rising air branch that is situated from 120W and into the Atlantic MDR. This is opposite compared to the CFS. It's normal to have some spotty rising motion over the eastern EPAC during a La Nina. But sinking motion over the Maritime continent doesn't usually happen. But the Euro forecast I'm looking at only goes out till mid June. It could switch over heading into July.

The CFS has something like this:
Image

The Euro shows something like this, but with rising motion over the Atlantic:
Image
5 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 703
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: Sand Fly Pass, Skeeter Key

Re: ENSO Updates

#11492 Postby Shell Mound » Thu May 07, 2020 5:26 am

Kingarabian wrote:In their VP200 forecasts the CFS and the Euro have pretty big differences. Entering June, the CFS has a developing rising air branch over the MC while the Euro continues to show strong sinking motion. CFS's solution would be expected given the trend towards La Nina. Euro is ???.

Considering that the May EC is far more bullish with La Niña vs. previous runs, isn’t this a bit strange? Perhaps it’s related to the lingering +PMM signature to the north of the equatorial Pacific. (We are currently in a long-term +PMM phase.) The remnant influence of the +PMM is likely one of the few factors that may keep a lid on the “ceiling” in the Atlantic basin. Another factor is the possibility that global models, especially CFSv2/JMA/EC, have been trending toward a potentially stronger-than-expected La Niña episode, more in line with the NASA models, though probably not quite as aggressive. A stronger Niña, plus the -PDO signature and warm subtropical West Atlantic, would tend to favour a +NAO during ASO. While the African monsoon should be robust due to the IO signal, the -ENSO/-PDO/+PMM/+NAO combination might favour more sinking air over the western MDR and Caribbean, despite VWS being considerably reduced, especially in the latter region. This may well prevent the overall number of NS from reaching 1995- or 2005-type levels and might also suppress ACE somewhat, but could still allow for a couple of isolated but very intense CV-type long-trackers (à la Edouard 1996, Isabel 2003, Irma 2017, etc.), along with our best chance for a late-season Caribbean major (à la Mitch 1998, Michelle 2001, Wilma 2005, etc.) in several seasons.
0 likes   
Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005
The views herein are the author’s alone. Please defer to the N.H.C./N.W.S. for official information.

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 721
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates

#11493 Postby StruThiO » Thu May 07, 2020 8:52 am

sorry to post again so soon, but it continues to quickly fall.

Image
3 likes   

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1751
Age: 32
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ENSO Updates

#11494 Postby USTropics » Thu May 07, 2020 9:30 am

30 day animation using the new NOAA 5km resolution SSTA graphs:

Image
8 likes   

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#11495 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu May 07, 2020 1:03 pm

7 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4457
Age: 42
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ENSO Updates

#11496 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 07, 2020 1:31 pm

3 likes   

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 847
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ENSO Updates

#11497 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu May 07, 2020 4:42 pm

USTropics wrote:30 day animation using the new NOAA 5km resolution SSTA graphs:

https://i.ibb.co/xfrB5F1/ssta-animation-30day-west.gif


Something else I Have noticed is that in OCT/NOV of 2019 the AMM shifted to the negative side which caused cooling off the east coast of Brazil (and dry conditions while the Amazon burned). This usually would coincide with an El Nino, or promote one. Also with the ENSO cooling the waters off Brazil are also starting to warm back from the cool anomalies this winter suggesting that the AMM has shifted back positive somewhat. That is also a plus for a busier season
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4457
Age: 42
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ENSO Updates

#11498 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 07, 2020 6:00 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
USTropics wrote:30 day animation using the new NOAA 5km resolution SSTA graphs:

https://i.ibb.co/xfrB5F1/ssta-animation-30day-west.gif


Something else I Have noticed is that in OCT/NOV of 2019 the AMM shifted to the negative side which caused cooling off the east coast of Brazil (and dry conditions while the Amazon burned). This usually would coincide with an El Nino, or promote one. Also with the ENSO cooling the waters off Brazil are also starting to warm back from the cool anomalies this winter suggesting that the AMM has shifted back positive somewhat. That is also a plus for a busier season


Sure thing if it persists.
0 likes   

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1751
Age: 32
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ENSO Updates

#11499 Postby USTropics » Fri May 08, 2020 8:21 am

SSTA for Nino 3.4 region continues to fall:
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11557
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11500 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 08, 2020 3:13 pm

Here's the latest 46day EPS:

Image

Still has the strongest +VP200 anomalies (sinking) over the MC which is between 100E-150E.

The CFS is the opposite with a developing rising air branch over the MC and organized sinking =across the EPAC heading into June.
Image

PC: Weathermodels.com and NCICS.org.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: aspen, Cleveland Kent Evans, Emmett_Brown, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], SconnieCane, Siker, Visioen and 44 guests