ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11501 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 09, 2020 8:12 am

All the areas are now going up after falling for a few days. I guess the trade winds have weaken but the question is what is going to occur in the next few weeks.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11502 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat May 09, 2020 8:18 am

cycloneye wrote:All the areas are now going up after falling for a few days. I guess the trade winds have weaken but the question is what is going to occur in the next few weeks.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11503 Postby OURAGAN » Sat May 09, 2020 11:09 am

Nino 3-4 is not going up for now , it’s steady at -0,001
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11504 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat May 09, 2020 11:10 am

At this point trade wind relaxations will only slow the progression towards La Niña.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.2C

#11505 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 11, 2020 10:52 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.2C

#11506 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 11, 2020 4:45 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11507 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 12, 2020 5:01 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11508 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 12, 2020 5:54 pm

There's still a significant difference between the CFS and Euro in their 200mb VP forecasts. I'm confused on why the Euro is sinking so much over the MC when there's a developing La Nina. And it's not weak or scattered anomalies either.
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO down to -0.57

#11509 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 13, 2020 6:15 am

The April PDO update is down to -0.57 from -0.82 of March.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11510 Postby jconsor » Wed May 13, 2020 7:38 am

The atmospheric signal often lags the oceanic trend by a few months. An additional factor is the current normal to warmer than normal SSTs from around the dateline west, with little significant cooling recently. Taken together, this would suggest some lingering Nino-type VP patterns persisting, especially in the western-central Pacific, through at least end of Jun if not a little later IMHO. The competing factors of little changed SST west of dateline and rapid cooling in the E. Pacific would suggest that a blend of the CFS and EPS VP forecasts likely makes the most sense.

Image
Image

A good indicator of how Nino-like the atmosphere is, is the presence of a positive AAM (atmospheric angular momentum). The AAM since Mar has averaged positive, whereas from Jul-Oct 2019 the AAM was consistently neutral to negative.

Image

The negative AAM last hurricane season is likely related to the drop in upper-ocean heat anomalies in the equatorial C/E Pacific from Jun to early Sep 2019.

Image

Another indicator of Nino like atmosphere is the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation), which shows the tendency of AAM over time. Here is a quick explanation of the significance of the GWO and a chart showing the main phases:
https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/gwo_maproom_new.htm

Image

The GWO has cycled counter-clockwise from phase 5 to 8 past month: https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/aam/cfsv2_gwo_fcst.php. The CFS forecast has the GWO remaining mainly in phases 7 to 8 next three weeks, though I personally would not be surprised to see it enter phase 1 by early Jun. However, even phase 1 still does yet not represent a true La Nina-like atmosphere.

Image


Kingarabian wrote:There's still a significant difference between the CFS and Euro in their 200mb VP forecasts. I'm confused on why the Euro is sinking so much over the MC when there's a developing La Nina. And it's not weak or scattered anomalies either.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11511 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 13, 2020 9:41 am

jconsor wrote:The atmospheric signal often lags the oceanic trend by a few months. An additional factor is the current normal to warmer than normal SSTs from around the dateline west, with little significant cooling recently. Taken together, this would suggest some lingering Nino-type VP patterns persisting, especially in the western-central Pacific, through at least end of Jun if not a little later IMHO. The competing factors of little changed SST west of dateline and rapid cooling in the E. Pacific would suggest that a blend of the CFS and EPS VP forecasts likely makes the most sense.

https://i.ibb.co/JjdDsV8/ssta-tropics.png
https://i.ibb.co/KrCw2pm/ssta-change-tropics.png

A good indicator of how Nino-like the atmosphere is, is the presence of a positive AAM (atmospheric angular momentum). The AAM since Mar has averaged positive, whereas from Jul-Oct 2019 the AAM was consistently neutral to negative.

https://i.ibb.co/PQbRv79/AAM-12-month.png

The negative AAM last hurricane season is likely related to the drop in upper-ocean heat anomalies in the equatorial C/E Pacific from Jun to early Sep 2019.

https://i.ibb.co/qrCDb1t/Eq-heat-anom.png

Another indicator of Nino like atmosphere is the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation), which shows the tendency of AAM over time. Here is a quick explanation of the significance of the GWO and a chart showing the main phases:
https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/gwo_maproom_new.htm

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/gwo_phase_fig4.jpg

The GWO has cycled counter-clockwise from phase 5 to 8 past month: https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/aam/cfsv2_gwo_fcst.php. The CFS forecast has the GWO remaining mainly in phases 7 to 8 next three weeks, though I personally would not be surprised to see it enter phase 1 by early Jun. However, even phase 1 still does yet not represent a true La Nina-like atmosphere.

https://i.ibb.co/Fm7sYyN/GWO-fcs.png


Kingarabian wrote:There's still a significant difference between the CFS and Euro in their 200mb VP forecasts. I'm confused on why the Euro is sinking so much over the MC when there's a developing La Nina. And it's not weak or scattered anomalies either.


After all the above is fair to say it will be at least cool Neutral or there is still a chance for La Niña on ASO?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11512 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 13, 2020 4:16 pm

jconsor wrote:The atmospheric signal often lags the oceanic trend by a few months. An additional factor is the current normal to warmer than normal SSTs from around the dateline west, with little significant cooling recently. Taken together, this would suggest some lingering Nino-type VP patterns persisting, especially in the western-central Pacific, through at least end of Jun if not a little later IMHO. The competing factors of little changed SST west of dateline and rapid cooling in the E. Pacific would suggest that a blend of the CFS and EPS VP forecasts likely makes the most sense.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/JjdDsV8/ssta-tropics.png[url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/KrCw2pm/ssta-change-tropics.png[url]

A good indicator of how Nino-like the atmosphere is, is the presence of a positive AAM (atmospheric angular momentum). The AAM since Mar has averaged positive, whereas from Jul-Oct 2019 the AAM was consistently neutral to negative.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/PQbRv79/AAM-12-month.png[url]

The negative AAM last hurricane season is likely related to the drop in upper-ocean heat anomalies in the equatorial C/E Pacific from Jun to early Sep 2019.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/qrCDb1t/Eq-heat-anom.png[url]

Another indicator of Nino like atmosphere is the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation), which shows the tendency of AAM over time. Here is a quick explanation of the significance of the GWO and a chart showing the main phases:
https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/gwo_maproom_new.htm

[url]https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/gwo_phase_fig4.jpg[url]

The GWO has cycled counter-clockwise from phase 5 to 8 past month: https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/aam/cfsv2_gwo_fcst.php. The CFS forecast has the GWO remaining mainly in phases 7 to 8 next three weeks, though I personally would not be surprised to see it enter phase 1 by early Jun. However, even phase 1 still does yet not represent a true La Nina-like atmosphere.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Fm7sYyN/GWO-fcs.png[url]


Kingarabian wrote:There's still a significant difference between the CFS and Euro in their 200mb VP forecasts. I'm confused on why the Euro is sinking so much over the MC when there's a developing La Nina. And it's not weak or scattered anomalies either.


Thanks for the explanation, this makes much more sense. I agree that the most likely outcome is a compromise between the CFS and the Euro. The latest CFS Nino 3.4 forecast has also backed off a significant La Nina event:
Image.

I think there still remains a possibility of a cool neutral to weak La Nina going into JAS as long as the atmosphere continues to lag.
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO down to -0.57

#11513 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 13, 2020 4:34 pm

Kingarabian As long El Niño will not be present, cool Neutral to Weak La Niña= Active Atlantic season.
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO down to -0.57

#11514 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 14, 2020 2:49 am

In the past two weeks CDAS and OISST anomaly maps show the once pronounced -PDO ring has switched closer to a warmer/positive ring.
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO down to -0.57

#11515 Postby Shell Mound » Thu May 14, 2020 5:24 am

Kingarabian wrote:In the past two weeks CDAS and OISST anomaly maps show the once pronounced -PDO ring has switched closer to a warmer/positive ring.
https://i.imgur.com/9jpe127.png

At this point, the EPAC looks to be at least as active as the Atlantic, if not more so, based on SST trends over the past two to three weeks. The MDR is now the coldest tropical basin relative to global SSTs, while the other basins are near or above the global mean. The long-term trend shows more of a -AMO rather than +AMO “ring,” despite a cold Eastern Seaboard due to the recent -NAO. The fact that the MDR is not warming back up in spite of the -NAO suggests that there is a -AMO at work via North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). On the other hand, neutral ENSO and a more positive look to the PDO might mean a more elongated Bermuda–Azores High, which would increase the threat of landfalls in the Gulf and FL vs. the Carolinas and New England.
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Re: ENSO: CPC May update:has Neutral at 65% thru Summer / Down to 45%-50% by Autumn

#11516 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 14, 2020 8:52 am

La Niña was at 30% on the April update and in this May one goes up to 38% for ASO. Cool Neutral is what likely will ASO have and that is good for an active North Atlantic season.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 May 2020

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: There is a ~65% chance of ENSO-neutral during Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with chances decreasing through the autumn (to 45-50%).

During April 2020, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies weakened and were near zero by the end of the month [Fig. 1]. All of the Niño indices decreased during the month, with the latest weekly Niño index values near +0.2°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) declined further and were below average [Fig. 3], due to the eastward expansion of below-average subsurface temperatures into the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Also during the month, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across the central and east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central and eastern portions of the basin. Tropical convection was near average around Indonesia and suppressed over the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] favor ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere autumn, though considerable spread is evident at longer lead times. Nino 3.4 index values are expected to decrease through the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring and into the summer; with the possibility of below-average temperatures becoming more established toward the latter half of the year. The consensus of forecasters favors ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer and fall, and slightly tilts toward La Niña at the end of the year (~45% chance). There is a ~10% chance of El Niño from the summer through the end the year. In summary, there is a ~65% chance of ENSO-neutral during Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with chances decreasing through the autumn (45-50%; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -cpc_plume

Image
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Re: CPC May update: Neutral at 65% thru Summer / La Niña at 38% by ASO / El Niño at 10%

#11517 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 14, 2020 10:06 am

Cool Neutral looks the most likely for this hurricane season. Of course that doesn’t really lessen the chances of seeing an above average season compared to if you were to have weak La Niña conditions.
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO down to -0.57

#11518 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 14, 2020 3:17 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:In the past two weeks CDAS and OISST anomaly maps show the once pronounced -PDO ring has switched closer to a warmer/positive ring.
https://i.imgur.com/9jpe127.png

At this point, the EPAC looks to be at least as active as the Atlantic, if not more so, based on SST trends over the past two to three weeks. The MDR is now the coldest tropical basin relative to global SSTs, while the other basins are near or above the global mean. The long-term trend shows more of a -AMO rather than +AMO “ring,” despite a cold Eastern Seaboard due to the recent -NAO. The fact that the MDR is not warming back up in spite of the -NAO suggests that there is a -AMO at work via North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). On the other hand, neutral ENSO and a more positive look to the PDO might mean a more elongated Bermuda–Azores High, which would increase the threat of landfalls in the Gulf and FL vs. the Carolinas and New England.


Well this Pacific warmup north of the 5N could be related to intra-seasonal variability. Because I remember back in 2017, around the same time, Joe Bastardi pointed out how the Pacific seemed like it was on fire despite the cooling happening over the Nino regions. It had a similar look to what's currently present on CDAS and OISST maps. I remember I posted the graphic on here showing how warm the Pacific has become. But I can't find it.

It's certainly possible that the EPAC won't be as dead as it was in 2010. Maybe something like 2017. But I doubt we see it go gangbusters as we've seen in recent years.
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Re: CPC May update: Neutral at 65% thru Summer / La Niña at 38% by ASO / El Niño at 10%

#11519 Postby USTropics » Thu May 14, 2020 3:56 pm

Here are some filters for top 12 ACE value years of EPAC vs. ATL ACE along with ONI values for 3 trimonthly averages of peak season months:
Image

I've done the same for top 12 ACE values years of ATL vs. EPAC:
Image

Data:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC ENSO Blog=Road trip

#11520 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 14, 2020 4:43 pm

Quite a ride thru all the things they look at to determine how is ENSO doing and in this ENSO Blog ,they explain about the three months of ONI. Is a great read.
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