Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[crownweather]

Well Harvey in a sense was homegrown and look what it amounted to, you can’t just assume there won’t be any major hurricane threats just because storms form closer to the U.S. In fact all four U.S. Cat.5 landfalling hurricanes were only Tropical Storms just three days prior to their catastrophic landfall.

Don’t forget that Michael was a CAG system that formed in the far western Caribbean. I guess you can count that as a home-grown system, and most importantly, this region could have significantly activity this season.

Yes! I was going to mention Michael since it occurred in recent years but I figured just stating that all Cat.5 U.S. impacts rapidly intensified close to landfall would make my point.

Heck! Even Katrina, and Rita first developed close-in within The Bahamas region.

And Andrew developed close in and strengthened from a tropical storm to a nearly Category 5 hurricane in about 36 hours.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1263854239710765058

I’m personally thinking that the ECMWF and UKMET will score long-range coups this season, but we’ll see. I think the active “consensus” will be in for some surprises—pleasant ones, fortunately. The UK/EC blend suggests that no major hurricanes will hit the mainland U.S. or the Greater Antilles, with MDR-related activity struggling to detach from the ITCZ, that is, lift northward of the latitude of Trinidad and Tobago. Any homegrown development will tend to be concentrated in the Gulf and hence be weaker at landfall, on average, than an MDR-type system. The northwestern Caribbean and East Coast also look to be relatively safe.

Well Harvey in a sense was homegrown and look what it amounted to, you can’t just assume there won’t be any major hurricane threats just because storms form closer to the U.S. In fact all four U.S. Cat.5 landfalling hurricanes were only Tropical Storms just three days prior to their catastrophic landfall.

I posted a graphic a couple weeks ago regarding all Cat 5 US landfalls being at TS strength in near term hours before landfall. Not sure why he is pounding this no threat theme down this forums throat the past two weeks even less than 24 hours after the NOAA admitting any confidence in tracks past two weeks out is NON existent. But, its not too much of gamble to make these predictions knowing that in a climo sense, landfalls are rare to begin with.

[Ubuntwo]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1263854239710765058

I’m personally thinking that the ECMWF and UKMET will score long-range coups this season, but we’ll see. I think the active “consensus” will be in for some surprises—pleasant ones, fortunately. The UK/EC blend suggests that no major hurricanes will hit the mainland U.S. or the Greater Antilles, with MDR-related activity struggling to detach from the ITCZ, that is, lift northward of the latitude of Trinidad and Tobago. Any homegrown development will tend to be concentrated in the Gulf and hence be weaker at landfall, on average, than an MDR-type system. The northwestern Caribbean and East Coast also look to be relatively safe.

It's May. Remember what everyone, yourself included, was saying last year? As late as August? We're not even past spring yet

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1263854239710765058

I’m personally thinking that the ECMWF and UKMET will score long-range coups this season, but we’ll see. I think the active “consensus” will be in for some surprises—pleasant ones, fortunately. The UK/EC blend suggests that no major hurricanes will hit the mainland U.S. or the Greater Antilles, with MDR-related activity struggling to detach from the ITCZ, that is, lift northward of the latitude of Trinidad and Tobago. Any homegrown development will tend to be concentrated in the Gulf and hence be weaker at landfall, on average, than an MDR-type system. The northwestern Caribbean and East Coast also look to be relatively safe.

It's May. Remember what everyone, yourself included, was saying last year? As late as August? We're not even past spring yet

I remember him saying the U.S. was "off the hook" in 2018 due to a cool MDR. The U.S. had two destructive hurricane landfalls that year, Florence and Michael, the latter of which became the first Category 5 US landfall since 1992.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1263854239710765058

I’m personally thinking that the ECMWF and UKMET will score long-range coups this season, but we’ll see. I think the active “consensus” will be in for some surprises—pleasant ones, fortunately. The UK/EC blend suggests that no major hurricanes will hit the mainland U.S. or the Greater Antilles, with MDR-related activity struggling to detach from the ITCZ, that is, lift northward of the latitude of Trinidad and Tobago. Any homegrown development will tend to be concentrated in the Gulf and hence be weaker at landfall, on average, than an MDR-type system. The northwestern Caribbean and East Coast also look to be relatively safe.

Well Harvey in a sense was homegrown and look what it amounted to, you can’t just assume there won’t be any major hurricane threats just because storms form closer to the U.S. In fact all four U.S. Cat.5 landfalling hurricanes were only Tropical Storms just three days prior to their catastrophic landfall.

First, to clarify one thing: I was implicitly referring to the fact that, per HURDAT, three-fourths of all major hurricanes to strike the mainland U.S. at that intensity first developed—that is, attained TD or greater status—in the MDR. So the “homegrown” major landfalls only comprise one-fourth of all major-hurricane impacts on the mainland U.S., although it is notable that all four Cat-5 hits since 1851 originated as part of the “homegrown” minority. On the other hand, homegrown storms tend to be more prominent in average or inactive seasons, and since SSTs tend to be lower in those years, static stability tends to be greater, so even the Cat-5 “homegrown” systems tend to be small in size, as the 1935 storm, Camille, Andrew, and Michael all were. The smaller wind radius will tend to reduce the threat of widespread, damaging storm surge, depending on the angle of approach and local bathymetry.

[Hammy]

Don’t forget that Michael was a CAG system that formed in the far western Caribbean. I guess you can count that as a home-grown system, and most importantly, this region could have significantly activity this season.

Yes! I was going to mention Michael since it occurred in recent years but I figured just stating that all Cat.5 U.S. impacts rapidly intensified close to landfall would make my point.

Heck! Even Katrina, and Rita first developed close-in within The Bahamas region.

And Andrew developed close in and strengthened from a tropical storm to a nearly Category 5 hurricane in about 36 hours.

Andrew's development (similarly to Harvey) was over a week earlier well out in the Atlantic--in fact forming around 35W in the MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes! I was going to mention Michael since it occurred in recent years but I figured just stating that all Cat.5 U.S. impacts rapidly intensified close to landfall would make my point.

Heck! Even Katrina, and Rita first developed close-in within The Bahamas region.

And Andrew developed close in and strengthened from a tropical storm to a nearly Category 5 hurricane in about 36 hours.

Andrew's development (similarly to Harvey) was over a week earlier well out in the Atlantic--in fact forming around 35W in the MDR.

Well Andrew never took off in intensity until near The Bahamas.

[ouragans]

The Servicio de Meteorologia Nacional de Mexico issued their forecast 2 days ago



TS: 15-19
H: 7-9
IH: 3-4

Source

[Shell Mound]

Perhaps CSU will slightly reduce its numbers come June, owing to the recent, persistent cooling in the MDR/Caribbean (relative to earlier dates).

[JetFuel_SE]

Perhaps CSU will slightly reduce its numbers come June, owing to the recent, persistent cooling in the MDR/Caribbean (relative to earlier dates).

Don't count on it, cooling at this time of the year is normal, and models are still predicting a warm MDR.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1265284503997685760

[Florida1118]

[/quote]

Perhaps you know more about them, but how is this blog an “expert forecast”?

[CyclonicFury]

Perhaps you know more about them, but how is this blog an “expert forecast”?[/quote]
I'm the author of said forecast. I am currently studying meteorology at NCSU, but do not consider myself an expert.

[Shell Mound]

Perhaps you know more about them, but how is this blog an “expert forecast”?

I'm the author of said forecast. I am currently studying meteorology at NCSU, but do not consider myself an expert.

CyclonicFury, why does your latest May outlook give more weight to the active African monsoon and ENSO than to the +NPMM and near-average MDR/Caribbean? The reason why my numbers have been so much lower is that I give more weight to the latter two factors than to the former two. I also consider the likelihood that the NAO will be positive during ASO, as the relatively reliable EC/UKMET models suggest, which would further elevate MSLP and increase VWS over the tropics, owing not just to the enhanced African easterly jet, but also to the possibility of shear from convection over the EPAC.

[toad strangler]

Perhaps you know more about them, but how is this blog an “expert forecast”?

I'm the author of said forecast. I am currently studying meteorology at NCSU, but do not consider myself an expert.

CyclonicFury, why does your latest May outlook give more weight to the active African monsoon and ENSO than to the +NPMM and near-average MDR/Caribbean? The reason why my numbers have been so much lower is that I give more weight to the latter two factors than to the former two. I also consider the likelihood that the NAO will be positive during ASO, as the relatively reliable EC/UKMET models suggest, which would further elevate MSLP and increase VWS over the tropics, owing not just to the enhanced African easterly jet, but also to the possibility of shear from convection over the EPAC.

How is it that you have been tracking weather since one year before you were born is what I want to know

[CyclonicFury]

Perhaps you know more about them, but how is this blog an “expert forecast”?

I'm the author of said forecast. I am currently studying meteorology at NCSU, but do not consider myself an expert.

CyclonicFury, why does your latest May outlook give more weight to the active African monsoon and ENSO than to the +NPMM and near-average MDR/Caribbean? The reason why my numbers have been so much lower is that I give more weight to the latter two factors than to the former two. I also consider the likelihood that the NAO will be positive during ASO, as the relatively reliable EC/UKMET models suggest, which would further elevate MSLP and increase VWS over the tropics, owing not just to the enhanced African easterly jet, but also to the possibility of shear from convection over the EPAC.

My forecast isn't much different, and is even lower than, some expert groups. Considering ENSO is cooler than the last two years, and the MDR is warmer than 2018/19, I am predicting a slightly more active season than 2018 or 2019.
I am just not convinced we will see near-below average activity with a near-ideal ENSO state, an MDR that is near to slightly above normal, and a strong WAM. Some seasons during the last inactive era, such as 1985 with an even colder MDR ended up more active than your 12-4-2 prediction. 2015, a Super El Niño year, was 11-4-2! To be fair you are more bearish than every expert out there. I could be wrong, but I disagree with your claims that the U.S. is probably at low risk simply because Arthur did not make landfall. Just because the MDR isn't as warm as 2005, 2010 or 2017 does not mean the MDR will be dead or the U.S. will be free from CV threats. Hurricanes such as Gloria, Andrew and Florence proved such.

[cycloneye]

Perhaps you know more about them, but how is this blog an “expert forecast”?[/quote]

I only put his forecast in the thread but not on the list of the first page of experts.

[cycloneye]

TSR goes slightly up to 17/8/3 with ACE of 135 from the April 15/7/3 numbers. Waiting for the PDF form to add it on the list.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if Phil Klotzbach leave the numbers 16/8/4 or goes up a little.

[SFLcane]

Wow! Phil goes with 19/9/4

Buckle up folks!