bubba hotep wrote:From the FWD AFD:
By Sunday, nearly continuous troughing will connect a mid-latitude
longwave emerging from the Rockies to a relative weakness in the
Gulf. This will result in a steady transition to a tropical,
moist-adiabatic profile above North and Central Texas. While this
will reduce the severe potential, persistent lift will maintain
widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms throughout Sunday
and Monday. Extraordinary precipitation efficiency through this
protracted rain event could mean considerable flooding by Memorial
Day, both short-scale flashing flooding and more prolonged
flooding of our near-capacity river/reservoir systems.
this was amazing too
The rainfall will further strengthen the troughing aloft, which
will in turn lead to more rain events. This feedback loop will
steadily develop a semi-permanent cyclone over the Lone Star
State. A blocking high over the eastern seaboard will keep the
low anchored, additional rain events only reinforcing its gloom.
It`s often a tall task for largely sub-synoptic processes to
disrupt the background pattern to this extent, but extended
guidance remains in remarkably good agreement. Warm season
patterns like this typically demonstrate considerable ensemble
spread, but that is also not the case. A prolonged heavy rain
event this time of year tends to prevent the development of
subtropical ridging; as a result, a wet pattern is projected to
dominate through the summer solstice.