ENSO Updates

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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11541 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 23, 2020 8:03 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11542 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 24, 2020 5:05 am

Also:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1264289956618436608




But you can also see the Euro kicking off a strong large-scale suppressed phase that spreads from the MC and into the EPAC.
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1264236102472421379




It remains like this into the first week of July on the long range Euro.

The CFS kicks of the La Nina standing wave around mid-June:
Image

It's strange to see such substantial differences remain between the models while we exit the SPB.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11543 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 24, 2020 7:34 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11544 Postby toad strangler » Sun May 24, 2020 8:52 am

cycloneye wrote:Another post from Ventrice.



So Ventrice went on to talk about an "Atlantic La Nina" also forming. I have to admit that I haven't read much about that phenomenon but he suggested it would strengthen or enhance the WAM. Not sure what that would signal for the MDR or Atlantic Basin on a whole. He did not elaborate.

 http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1264525876840083457



 http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1264526432212000771


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11545 Postby chaser1 » Sun May 24, 2020 9:55 am

toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Another post from Ventrice.



So Ventrice went on to talk about an "Atlantic La Nina" also forming. I have to admit that I haven't read much about that phenomenon but he suggested it would strengthen or enhance the WAM. Not sure what that would signal for the MDR or Atlantic Basin on a whole. He did not elaborate.

http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1264525876840083457?s=20
http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1264526432212000771?s=20


The general implication is that the "WAM" (West African Monsoon) could be on overdrive, suggesting increased tropical wave activity. What i'm not entirely sure about would be whether this would or would not suggest a more enhanced ITCZ throughout the MDR. I tend to think that an enhanced WAM would certainly aid toward the expectation of a higher aggregate number of tropical cyclones within the basin but such a robust low level flow might inhibit much of the development until such waves reach a longitude where either the lower flow might slacken a bit (or where vertical shear may be more relaxed). Overall I think that a strong WAM portends of a good deal more activity and perhaps storm tracks through the Caribbean then displayed during recent years.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11546 Postby StruThiO » Sun May 24, 2020 8:55 pm

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11547 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun May 24, 2020 8:56 pm

:uarrow: Wonder if Niño 3.4 could reach -0.5°C this week!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11548 Postby JetFuel_SE » Mon May 25, 2020 12:40 am

CyclonicFury wrote::uarrow: Wonder if Niño 3.4 could reach -0.5°C this week!

Highly doubt it, maybe next weekly update.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11549 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 25, 2020 3:05 pm

Models setting up a modest WWB from the end of May through the first week of June in the EPAC.
Image

Could slow surface cooling a little bit.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11550 Postby NDG » Mon May 25, 2020 4:26 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Models setting up a modest WWB from the end of May through the first week of June in the EPAC.
https://i.imgur.com/u9gOiPE.png

Could slow surface cooling a little bit.


That's from the MJO, correct?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11551 Postby NDG » Mon May 25, 2020 4:29 pm

CyclonicFury wrote::uarrow: Wonder if Niño 3.4 could reach -0.5°C this week!


Not quite, this will be tomorrow's update:
Nino 3 saw the biggest drop.


Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C
Nino 3 down to -0.6C
Nino 3.4 down to -0.4C
Nino 4 down to +0.1C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11552 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon May 25, 2020 4:39 pm

NDG wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote::uarrow: Wonder if Niño 3.4 could reach -0.5°C this week!


Not quite, this will be tomorrow's update:
Nino 3 saw the biggest drop.


Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C
Nino 3 down to -0.6C
Nino 3.4 down to -0.4C
Nino 4 down to +0.1C

If the WWB that Kingarabian showed comes to fruition, which of the Nino regions is most likely to warm and how much warming is likely to take place?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11553 Postby NDG » Mon May 25, 2020 4:50 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
NDG wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote::uarrow: Wonder if Niño 3.4 could reach -0.5°C this week!


Not quite, this will be tomorrow's update:
Nino 3 saw the biggest drop.


Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C
Nino 3 down to -0.6C
Nino 3.4 down to -0.4C
Nino 4 down to +0.1C

If the WWB that Kingarabian showed comes to fruition, which of the Nino regions is most likely to warm and how much warming is likely to take place?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Most likely the eastern regions, but there's a big pool of cool waters underneath them so I doubt it will be my much.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11554 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 25, 2020 5:51 pm

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Models setting up a modest WWB from the end of May through the first week of June in the EPAC.
https://i.imgur.com/u9gOiPE.png

Could slow surface cooling a little bit.


That's from the MJO, correct?

Yes a combination of MJO/CCKW entering the area. Similar to what we saw during mid April. It will be nothing but temporarily.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11555 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon May 25, 2020 10:03 pm

The weekly value of -0.4C should be enough to push MAM below Nino territory.
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Re: ENSO: CPC WEekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.4C

#11556 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 26, 2020 8:11 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC WEekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.4C

#11557 Postby StruThiO » Tue May 26, 2020 10:58 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC WEekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.4C

#11558 Postby StruThiO » Wed May 27, 2020 10:37 am

impressive change in just one month

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11559 Postby StruThiO » Thu May 28, 2020 10:24 am

CFS wants it

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11560 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2020 10:39 am

StruThiO wrote:CFS wants it

https://i.imgur.com/b8Btbhk.png


Some members dont understand the graphics mainly the ladies in S2k and because of that I ask what do you mean when you posted CFS wants it?
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