ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

it is incredibly clear where the center is. and has become quite well defined the last few hours as it is near the coast and pretty much right ontop of the radar so its only looking maybe 100 up.

watch the loop and its very clear

https://i.ibb.co/BwsnNrg/202006011430.gif

https://i.ibb.co/vchYbYT/bbbbbbb.gif

Yep, and is starting to show up nicely on vis sat loop.

[SoupBone]

it is incredibly clear where the center is. and has become quite well defined the last few hours as it is near the coast and pretty much right ontop of the radar so its only looking maybe 100 up.

watch the loop and its very clear

https://i.ibb.co/BwsnNrg/202006011430.gif

https://i.ibb.co/vchYbYT/bbbbbbb.gif

Yep, and is starting to show up nicely on vis sat loop.

Hey there, Dennis. Another season starting. What are your thoughts on this one? I saw the last Euro going in around Corpus but the GFS has a LaTex setup.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1267478176818696192

[cycloneye]

Mark Sudduth (Hurricanetrack) discussion of 93L.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1267470032625373191

[Aric Dunn]

Im amazed at how much the overall GYRE has consolidated.. im not sure we are going to see much of a cyclonic loop anymore. looking more likely to stay offshore..

[PTrackerLA]

Im amazed at how much the overall GYRE has consolidated.. im not sure we are going to see much of a cyclonic loop anymore. looking more likely to stay offshore..

If that happens then lookout. The 12z ICON shows this possibility.

[NDG]

it is incredibly clear where the center is. and has become quite well defined the last few hours as it is near the coast and pretty much right ontop of the radar so its only looking maybe 100 up.

watch the loop and its very clear

https://i.ibb.co/BwsnNrg/202006011430.gif

https://i.ibb.co/vchYbYT/bbbbbbb.gif

Yep, and is starting to show up nicely on vis sat loop.

Hey there, Dennis. Another season starting. What are your thoughts on this one? I saw the last Euro going in around Corpus but the GFS has a LaTex setup.

Hi there, nice to see you back.
I am keeping a watch on the Euro ensembles' trend which has been for its mean track to stay over water, which will keep it on the stronger side, not a good thing. As far as track is way too early to say when it is still 5-7 days away, anywhere from TX to the FL Panhandle need to keep an eye on it, but especially LA.
IMO.

[Siker]

A low level vort (not the main one we're looking at) is rotating with the gyre off to the west right now.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1267489770206183426

[GCANE]

IR Sat analysis, 1.5 hrs ago, puts the LL CoC here:

[NDG]

The COC even though is not over completely over water yet is over flat marshy coastline with low vergetation, the reason why it looks to be getting better organized.

[Dean4Storms]

Hopefully if this does sit for days in the BOC it upwells cooler water and keeps it in check.

[SoupBone]

So what are the potential hindrances for a system like this? Size? Shear?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Geeze if this keeps up it will be near a TS by the time it splashes down

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[BYG Jacob]

A low level vort (not the main one we're looking at) is rotating with the gyre off to the west right now.

https://i.imgur.com/6U0jr1Y.gif

If I didn't know any better, I'd say that looks like Cristobal already

[Nederlander]

Hopefully if this does sit for days in the BOC it upwells cooler water and keeps it in check.

Yep, but unfortunately it’s about to hit the warmest water in the GoM. I guess the bright side is that it’s not quite the 85-90 degF temps seen later in the season.

[Nederlander]

So what are the potential hindrances for a system like this? Size? Shear?

SSTs imo.. it’s already got a pretty good structure with a large anticyclone building aloft. It’s just early in the season, and like I said above, yes it’s moving over the warmest gulf waters currently, but not as warm as in September.

[SoupBone]

So what are the potential hindrances for a system like this? Size? Shear?

SSTs imo.. it’s already got a pretty good structure with a large anticyclone building aloft. It’s just early in the season, and like I said above, yes it’s moving over the warmest gulf waters currently, but not as warm as in September.

Shear right now is pretty high in the GoM, I forget where the futurecast is for it though. 30-40 knots currently. Is it expected to lessen in the coming days?

[TheProfessor]

So what are the potential hindrances for a system like this? Size? Shear?

SSTs imo.. it’s already got a pretty good structure with a large anticyclone building aloft. It’s just early in the season, and like I said above, yes it’s moving over the warmest gulf waters currently, but not as warm as in September.

SSTs won't be a problem for at least hurricane strength, the southern BoC can support a slow moving storm with pretty decent Ocean Heat Content as well.



The environment and possible land interaction will likely be the two main hindrances for this system.

[TheProfessor]

As for SSTs the only area in the Gulf that might not support a hurricane is near the deep purple shade in the northeast GoM. Everywhere else is 26 degrees Celsius or higher.