ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.

So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?

[wxman57]

I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.

So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?

Upper TX coast landfall with flooding TX and LA

[Cpv17]

I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.

So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?

It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.

[plasticup]

I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.

So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?

Upper TX coast landfall with flooding TX and LA

What do you think of Florida? I know that is 6-7 days out but do you care to give us a wild speculation?

[La Breeze]

their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.

[SoupBone]

I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.

So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?

It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.

No shot calling, he referred to a specific system so I was curious what his thoughts are.

[SoupBone]

their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.

One of the models showed that earlier taking a hard right turn into Texas following it scraping across the Louisiana coast.

[stormlover2013]

Florida will get some rain but this won’t be a Florida system

[Cpv17]

So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?

It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.

No shot calling, he referred to a specific system so I was curious what his thoughts are.

I don’t think anyone except the man upstairs could accurately predict where this is going right now.

[Blinhart]

I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.

So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?

It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.

He is a Pro-Met, he has information than us, so I believe a lot of what he says, don't say it is too early, a week isn't a lot of time.

[La Breeze]

Oh boy, this one has roared to life far sooner than I thought it would.

I sure hope this isn't an Audrey 1957 type scenario, but that's the vibe I'm getting (setup, location, time of year, and projected track).

Stay safe everyone and think good thoughts.

Although I was quite young, I do remember Audrey - I've also lived through many others including Rita, I certainly hope that we don't experience any of this again. My grandfather always told me, "Never turn your back on the Gulf" - I have found this to be true. The Gulf holds lots of surprises.

[Blinhart]

their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.

Which channel KATC or KLFY??? No matter what it looks like we will be getting a lot of rain and possible flooding, so going to Rockefeller Wednesday for some crabbing.

[La Breeze]

their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.

One of the models showed that earlier taking a hard right turn into Texas following it scraping across the Louisiana coast.

"hard right turn"?

[Blinhart]

Oh boy, this one has roared to life far sooner than I thought it would.

I sure hope this isn't an Audrey 1957 type scenario, but that's the vibe I'm getting (setup, location, time of year, and projected track).

Stay safe everyone and think good thoughts.

Although I was quite young, I do remember Audrey - I've also lived through many others including Rita, I certainly hope that we don't experience any of this again. My grandfather always told me, "Never turn your back on the Gulf" - I have found this to be true. The Gulf holds lots of surprises.

I don't even want to think about an Audrey like storm coming in with everything going on right now, this will be horrible if that happens.

[Blinhart]

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.

One of the models showed that earlier taking a hard right turn into Texas following it scraping across the Louisiana coast.

"hard right turn"?

I think they mean after making a hard left turn at Vermillion Bay going West until around Galveston Bay and turning hard right.

[La Breeze]

their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.

Which channel KATC or KLFY??? No matter what it looks like we will be getting a lot of rain and possible flooding, so going to Rockefeller Wednesday for some crabbing.

KATC

[La Breeze]

One of the models showed that earlier taking a hard right turn into Texas following it scraping across the Louisiana coast.

"hard right turn"?

I think they mean after making a hard left turn at Vermillion Bay going West until around Galveston Bay and turning hard right.

Ah, ok, got it.

[Cpv17]

So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?

It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.

He is a Pro-Met, he has information than us, so I believe a lot of what he says, don't say it is too early, a week isn't a lot of time.

Models are all over the place. Central Texas coast to Florida panhandle are all in play. Ensemble spreads is wide. You can’t let your guard down.

[wayne1701]

Over the last 30+ years I have seen many of these cyclones turn Southwest into the mountains of Mexico and dissipate.

[davidiowx]

So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?

It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.

He is a Pro-Met, he has information than us, so I believe a lot of what he says, don't say it is too early, a week isn't a lot of time.

While he does have more info than us, a week is a significant amount of time for track adjustments and potential impacts from a storm.

However, a week is not a lot of time to be prepared. It’s Hurricane season and everyone along the gulf coast should be getting their supplies, kits and plans ready. It’s a little tougher with everything going on but now is the time to start.