2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[N2FSU]

6z GFS ensembles


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[N2FSU]

0z Euro ensembles


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[kevin]

Of course still far away into the fantasy region (216 hours), but here's a slightly more in depth look in the current 0z euro control run. First image is the standard Tropical Tidbits overview, second image also shows 3h gust velocities in km/h. So this euro run has a landfall at roughly 117 km/h gusts.

[Ubuntwo]

Hmmm... 12z GFS is back on time with development, but intensity is more in line with other models this time around. Just a weak tropical storm.

[stormlover2013]

CMC tropical storm upper Texas coast

[wxman22]

Yeah the EURO and CMC are becoming consistent with a tropical storm forming next week and affecting the northwestern Gulf.This will have to be watched as monsoonal/gyre origin tropical storms can have a tremendous amount of moisture to work with.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 100&fh=168

[Ubuntwo]

Since apparently everyone's distracted by the Gulf....

There is a moderate signal for subtropical cyclogenesis about 8 days out, far off the North Carolina coast.
It's on quite a few models including the ICON, Euro, and CMC, all around the same timeframe.
Looks like a trough drops down into the southwest Atlantic and vorticity bundles at its end.


Euro

CMC

ICON

[chaser1]

Batter Up! Next on the fantasy long range comes in about 306 hr.'s. This long range threat brought to you by - 2020 CAG "The Gyre that keep's on Giving"
GFS showing another spin-off low developing in the N.W. Caribbean. This for 3 consecutive model runs at this point. Will have to see if the GFS continues to rein in the time-frame on this or whether any focus on development is further west (or on the E. PAC side).

[Cpv17]

Batter Up! Next on the fantasy long range comes in about 306 hr.'s. This long range threat brought to you by - 2020 CAG "The Gyre that keep's on Giving"
GFS showing another spin-off low developing in the N.W. Caribbean. This for 3 consecutive model runs at this point. Will have to see if the GFS continues to rein in the time-frame on this or whether any focus on development is further west (or on the E. PAC side).

Yeah I’m already looking forward to the next one. I could see at least 2 more systems happening in June.

[CyclonicFury]

I know it's just a few EPS members showing this, but it's EARLY JUNE

[StruThiO]

I know it's just a few EPS members showing this, but it's EARLY JUNE

https://i.imgur.com/ePdXS7h_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1268225774588321793

[aspen]

I know it's just a few EPS members showing this, but it's EARLY JUNE

https://i.imgur.com/ePdXS7h_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

If that were to come true, it would be very similar to Bret ‘17 in terms of intensity, track, and timing. Certainly not completely ludicrous.

[StruThiO]

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/fk6f19L.png

Kidding of course but looking at that map, I'd put my money on Western Kentucky for cyclogenesis

[aspen]

Both the 18z GFS and the 12z Euro show a potential STC developing in the middle of the NW Atlantic on Wednesday. I think we might have Dolly on the horizon...

EDIT: the CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON also show signs of development on Tuesday/Wednesday.

[plasticup]

Euro, GFS, CMC, and Navy all show a STS by Bermuda on June 9-10. Excellent agreement but a very weak, short-lived system.

[aspen]

The Euro is more aggressive with “future Dolly” in its 12z run, and so far is the most aggressive out of the global models, even though the GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON do show at least something. However, it also had a much harder time trying to tighten up Cristobal before landfall on Sunday.

[cainjamin]

Long range GFS is showing a tropical system developing from the merger of a tropical wave and decaying front near Bermuda in about 200 hours. Likely a phantom storm, but the waves that it forecasts coming off Africa are very impressive for this time of year.

[Kingarabian]

Recent Euro runs have been hinting @ some potential BOC mischief: