The next Cat 5 U.S. landfall

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1256504660866686976



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1169222326493122560



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1169364025345314816



 https://twitter.com/ABC7Brian/status/1168277417078730753



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1168249265006600192

[wayne1701]

Texas or Florida is a safe bet. Fort Lauderdale near or north of Miami. Texas: Anywhere along the coast. Galveston area.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1263456982159237126



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1263458291558109187



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1263458656240222208



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1263464599845732352

[Shell Mound]

Given current trends, I think there’s a higher-than-normal risk of another Irma-, Donna-, or 1900 Galveston-type Cat-4+ CV long-tracker that passes near or over the Leeward Islands, PR, the TCI/SW Bahamas, and South FL/Keys, with several landfalls at major-hurricane intensity, including multiple Cat-4+ strikes, possibly while en route to a final landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast in either TX or LA. I am already going to go out on a limb and speculate that we’ll not only see multiple Cat-5 cyclones in 2020, but also one or more Cat-5 landfalls each in the mainland U.S. and Caribbean (including U.S. territories such as PR/USVI). This time I think South FL’s major metropolitan area may not be as fortunate as it’s been in recent years. I would also put Houston/Galveston and/or New Orleans in the crosshairs of that potential long-tracker which I’ve mentioned. I think we may see something like this: Cat-5 storm (maybe GONZALO) makes LF on: Guadeloupe → Culebra → San Juan, PR → Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL → Freeport, TX (NE quadrant over Galveston Bay/Houston) OR Buras-Triumph, LA (with eye passing over New Orleans).

[cycloneye]

Given current trends, I think there’s a higher-than-normal risk of another Irma-, Donna-, or 1900 Galveston-type Cat-4+ CV long-tracker that passes near or over the Leeward Islands, PR, the TCI/SW Bahamas, and South FL/Keys, with several landfalls at major-hurricane intensity, including multiple Cat-4+ strikes, possibly while en route to a final landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast in either TX or LA. I am already going to go out on a limb and speculate that we’ll not only see multiple Cat-5 cyclones in 2020, but also one or more Cat-5 landfalls each in the mainland U.S. and Caribbean (including U.S. territories such as PR/USVI). This time I think South FL’s major metropolitan area may not be as fortunate as it’s been in recent years. I would also put Houston/Galveston and/or New Orleans in the crosshairs of that potential long-tracker which I’ve mentioned. I think we may see something like this: Cat-5 storm (maybe GONZALO) makes LF on: Guadeloupe → Culebra → San Juan, PR → Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL → Freeport, TX (NE quadrant over Galveston Bay/Houston) OR Buras-Triumph, LA (with eye passing over New Orleans).

[aspen]

Given current trends, I think there’s a higher-than-normal risk of another Irma-, Donna-, or 1900 Galveston-type Cat-4+ CV long-tracker that passes near or over the Leeward Islands, PR, the TCI/SW Bahamas, and South FL/Keys, with several landfalls at major-hurricane intensity, including multiple Cat-4+ strikes, possibly while en route to a final landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast in either TX or LA. I am already going to go out on a limb and speculate that we’ll not only see multiple Cat-5 cyclones in 2020, but also one or more Cat-5 landfalls each in the mainland U.S. and Caribbean (including U.S. territories such as PR/USVI). This time I think South FL’s major metropolitan area may not be as fortunate as it’s been in recent years. I would also put Houston/Galveston and/or New Orleans in the crosshairs of that potential long-tracker which I’ve mentioned. I think we may see something like this: Cat-5 storm (maybe GONZALO) makes LF on: Guadeloupe → Culebra → San Juan, PR → Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL → Freeport, TX (NE quadrant over Galveston Bay/Houston) OR Buras-Triumph, LA (with eye passing over New Orleans).

I was pretty skeptical of a Cat 4+ MDR long-tracker in the likes of Irma/Luis/Isabel/Ike, but with a +AMO now occurring alongside the enhanced MDR moisture that the models have been predicting for several months, I also agree that one seems rather likely for this season. A low-rider Cat 5 like Ivan, Dean, or Felix is also a possibility since the Caribbean won’t be a TC meat grinder this year.

The name I’m really worried about this year is Hanna. All past versions have been weak (Cat 1 at most), it’s been around for several seasons, it will likely be used in this year’s peak, and it should’ve been retired in a past season. All of these were reasons I was concerned about Matthew ‘16, although it hasn’t been around as long and its case for retirement in 2010 isn’t as strong as Hanna ‘08.

[FireRat]

Given current trends, I think there’s a higher-than-normal risk of another Irma-, Donna-, or 1900 Galveston-type Cat-4+ CV long-tracker that passes near or over the Leeward Islands, PR, the TCI/SW Bahamas, and South FL/Keys, with several landfalls at major-hurricane intensity, including multiple Cat-4+ strikes, possibly while en route to a final landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast in either TX or LA. I am already going to go out on a limb and speculate that we’ll not only see multiple Cat-5 cyclones in 2020, but also one or more Cat-5 landfalls each in the mainland U.S. and Caribbean (including U.S. territories such as PR/USVI). This time I think South FL’s major metropolitan area may not be as fortunate as it’s been in recent years. I would also put Houston/Galveston and/or New Orleans in the crosshairs of that potential long-tracker which I’ve mentioned. I think we may see something like this: Cat-5 storm (maybe GONZALO) makes LF on: Guadeloupe → Culebra → San Juan, PR → Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL → Freeport, TX (NE quadrant over Galveston Bay/Houston) OR Buras-Triumph, LA (with eye passing over New Orleans).

Yep, I can see this being a plausible worst-case scenario for 2020 with indicators continuing to paint a very suspenseful and grim picture of what may be to come this season. This is basically in line with my own thoughts as well. If we were to have all these things happening during the same year, 1780 sounds like a close analog year.
1780...
Aug - Major Louisiana Hurricane, possibly Cat 4.
Oct - Savanna La Mar Hurricane strikes Jamaica on a northward track, possibly Cat 5.
Oct - Hurricane San Calixto, ravages Leewards, and Puerto Rico on a wnw track before going out to sea. Likely a Cat 5 landfall in many locales. Irma and Maria combined is probably the closest thing in recent times comparable to what that monster did in that region, and it was likely much stronger.
Oct - Solano's Hurricane, possibly a major, tracked close or over western Cuba on a track into the eastern GOM, probably struck FL, but with few inhabitants there we won't know for sure.

1780 also had other significant storms throughout the tropical Atlantic, and I believe there were 8 known significant impactful tropical cyclones that season, which when adjusted for 'inflation' to compare to these days with our technology and ability to detect all storm systems, the year 1780 probably was hyperactive as well. 1780 had tracks and intensities similar to your out-on-a-limb thoughts, with the exception of the South FL and Texas landfall. Your thoughts may sound nuts in any other year, but I guess in 2020 anything is possible.

My own gut feeling tells me we could see a 2008/2017/1780 combination, which would be insanely catastrophic, and yeah South FL would also be in play.

All I can say, is that I hope we're all wrong about this year.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/RMolleda/status/1166858245035741184



 https://twitter.com/bnorcross/status/1164513705255669761



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1168484467167649792



 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1168945002426380288



 https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1167741572366196738

[Do_For_Love]

Well, I certainly agree that Florida got very lucky with the Dorian situation. Sadly, the Bahamas did not and they suffered heartbreaking devastation, especially on Abaco island. It kind of reminds me of Hurricane Floyd, where a big bad storm was bearing down on Florida and then seemingly decided, "eh, nah" and hit someone else instead. I believe Floyd was a larger storm but of course, Dorian was significantly stronger (185 sustained!).

In terms of the next Cat 5 landfall in the US, there are so many variables obviously that it's impossible to really predict with accuracy. One variable that weighs in favor of it happening sooner than later though is the fact that since 2016, every season has had at least one Cat 5 (and 2015 juuust missed the mark with Joaquin). So there is an argument to be made that intense storms are happening with increasing frequency in recent years. Perhaps that streak will end this year, but from what I have been seeing, I wouldn't bet on it. As long as the Cat 5s are out there, everyone in the NATL is at risk for impact, even New England which has seen it happen historically.

[toad strangler]

Well, I certainly agree that Florida got very lucky with the Dorian situation. Sadly, the Bahamas did not and they suffered heartbreaking devastation, especially on Abaco island. It kind of reminds me of Hurricane Floyd, where a big bad storm was bearing down on Florida and then seemingly decided, "eh, nah" and hit someone else instead. I believe Floyd was a larger storm but of course, Dorian was significantly stronger (185 sustained!).

In terms of the next Cat 5 landfall in the US, there are so many variables obviously that it's impossible to really predict with accuracy. One variable that weighs in favor of it happening sooner than later though is the fact that since 2016, every season has had at least one Cat 5 (and 2015 juuust missed the mark with Joaquin). So there is an argument to be made that intense storms are happening with increasing frequency in recent years. Perhaps that streak will end this year, but from what I have been seeing, I wouldn't bet on it. As long as the Cat 5s are out there, everyone in the NATL is at risk for impact, even New England which has seen it happen historically.

We just had a Cat 5 landfall in 2018. Michael.

Also, There is no evidence what-so-ever of a Cat 5 landfall anywhere near New England. Post 1851 or pre 1851. If I'm wrong I'd like to see it.
Michael is the highest latitude Cat 5 landfall in the Atlantic Basin edging out Camille. I could see a Cat 5 making it as far N as the Carolinas possibly but it's one digit away from impossible way up around New England.

[psyclone]

IIRC Hazel is the northernmost category 4 landfall and that was at the NC/SC line. Cat 5 are rare in the middle of the ocean as is. Thank goodness for that. In the US probably the highest risk of a category 5 landfall is south florida followed by south texas (Corpus and south)...those places are farther south and are geographically positioned to get creamed by a west or slightly north of west moving monster.

[toad strangler]

IIRC Hazel is the northernmost category 4 landfall and that was at the NC/SC line. Cat 5 are rare in the middle of the ocean as is. Thank goodness for that. In the US probably the highest risk of a category 5 landfall is south florida followed by south texas (Corpus and south)...those places are farther south and are geographically positioned to get creamed by a west or slightly north of west moving monster.

FL owns 3 of the 4 modern (post 1850) US Cat5 landfalls along with LA with 1

[Do_For_Love]

We just had a Cat 5 landfall in 2018. Michael.

Also, There is no evidence what-so-ever of a Cat 5 landfall anywhere near New England. Post 1851 or pre 1851. If I'm wrong I'd like to see it.
Michael is the highest latitude Cat 5 landfall in the Atlantic Basin edging out Camille. I could see a Cat 5 making it as far N as the Carolinas possibly but it's one digit away from impossible way up around New England.

Oh I'm very aware of Michael, I followed it on here actually. I was talking about when the next one will happen.

This was the hurricane I was thinking of for New England, the 1938 "Long Island Express": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_ ... _hurricane. I guess it wasn't a Cat 5 at landfall like I thought so that's my mistake, but it was at one point and did make landfall as a Cat 3. Similar to Katrina and we know how damaging that was.

Another one that I was thinking of was the "Great Colonial Hurricane". This is listed as a Cat 4 on wikipedia, but it's possible that it was a Cat 5 (also possible it was only a Cat 3) according to the article and caused up to a 20 foot storm surge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Col ... ne_of_1635.

I wasn't aware Michael was the highest latitude Cat 5 landfall confirmed. That does make me think a Cat 5 is unlikely in New England, but with average SST's being higher than they used to be it might not be impossible. Either way, NE is definitely not immune from serious hurricane impacts as we can see historically.

[chaser1]

Florida - somewhere between Melbourne and the Keys, and then into the Gulf re-curving northward toward a secondary landfall between Cedar Key and Panama City. I hope it's not this year but I'm concerned about the possibility

[HurricaneEnzo]

Cat 5 in the NE is essentially impossible in my opinion. Getting a Cat 4 close to the east coast north of Florida is a extremely rare event as it is. Hazel '54, Hugo '89, Diana '84 are the only ones in recent memory I can think of that fall into this category. There may be a couple of others I'm forgetting. Hugo was the most impressive east coast strike excluding Florida in recorded history in my opinion. An argument could be made the advisories were actually on the low side and Hugo was closer to high-end Cat 4 at landfall.

I still have a hard time believing Hazel was a Cat 4 given the time of year and area it struck. Just doesn't seem feasible to get a Cat 4 that far up the coast in mid October. I know it was moving extremely fast from the South so maybe that it how it was accomplished. Being from NC if I had to pick 1 storm I wish we had modern satellite imagery for it would be Hazel with Labor Day Storm a close 2nd.

Even getting a Cat 3 to hit NC is a rare event so getting a 5 up that far North just doesn't seem possible. In theory it might be but unless there is drastic warming of the waters even from what they are today I don't think it will ever happen.

[Shell Mound]

Cat 5 in the NE is essentially impossible in my opinion. Getting a Cat 4 close to the east coast north of Florida is a extremely rare event as it is. Hazel '54, Hugo '89, Diana '84 are the only ones in recent memory I can think of that fall into this category.

The 1898 GA hurricane and Gracie 1959 (SC) made landfalls as Cat-4 hurricanes as well. Diana ‘84 weakened to Cat-2 status by the time it made landfall. Notably, Helene 1958 was a Cat-4 at its closest approach to Cape Fear, NC. The 1821 hurricane was likely a Cat-4 as it struck eastern NC, and the 1635, 1815, and 1938 hurricanes were at least moderate to strong Cat-3 hurricanes at their respective landfalls on Long Island, NY, and/or southern New England. I definitely believe that a low-end Cat-4 hurricane is possible as far north as Long Island under certain exceptional circumstances. A Cat-5 hit on the Carolinas is certainly doable as well, though under exceptional circumstances as mentioned.

[SootyTern]

This was the hurricane I was thinking of for New England, the 1938 "Long Island Express": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_ ... _hurricane. I guess it wasn't a Cat 5 at landfall like I thought so that's my mistake, but it was at one point and did make landfall as a Cat 3. Similar to Katrina and we know how damaging that was.

Another one that I was thinking of was the "Great Colonial Hurricane". This is listed as a Cat 4 on wikipedia, but it's possible that it was a Cat 5 (also possible it was only a Cat 3) according to the article and caused up to a 20 foot storm surge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Col ... ne_of_1635.

I wasn't aware Michael was the highest latitude Cat 5 landfall confirmed. That does make me think a Cat 5 is unlikely in New England, but with average SST's being higher than they used to be it might not be impossible. Either way, NE is definitely not immune from serious hurricane impacts as we can see historically.

These two storms were likely solid 4's or 5's further south. It seems like a hit from a newly-developing Cat 3 is different from a hit from a Cat 3 that is an ex-5. Think of Floyd or Mitch; their wind energy was transferred to epic rain at their continental landfalls. I wonder if it has to do with the vast amounts of bundled energy that need to be dissipated; if it doesn't happen through wind it may happen through rain. Also these extremely strong storms have had time to build up exceptional surges. I'm not a meteorologist, though, just an observer.

As to being still a Cat 5 at landfall, I agree with those that say NC Outer Banks at the most, if climate change expands the envelope of what is possible. The Gulf Stream peels away from the coast and ocean temps drop pretty quickly after that.

[Do_For_Love]

These two storms were likely solid 4's or 5's further south. It seems like a hit from a newly-developing Cat 3 is different from a hit from a Cat 3 that is an ex-5. Think of Floyd or Mitch; their wind energy was transferred to epic rain at their continental landfalls. I wonder if it has to do with the vast amounts of bundled energy that need to be dissipated; if it doesn't happen through wind it may happen through rain. Also these extremely strong storms have had time to build up exceptional surges. I'm not a meteorologist, though, just an observer.

As to being still a Cat 5 at landfall, I agree with those that say NC Outer Banks at the most, if climate change expands the envelope of what is possible. The Gulf Stream peels away from the coast and ocean temps drop pretty quickly after that.

Yeah good point. It seems like they were both strong majors in the south and then got caught in an atmospheric setup that caused them to move exceptionally quickly to the north and hit New England while still packing a punch, on top of having that potential "ex-5" energy like you're saying.

I guess I respectfully disagree in terms of the range of a potential 5, although I certainly get where you're coming from and could be wrong, I'm no meteorologist myself. My logic on this is that climate change sometimes seems to increase extremes as well as averages. Imagine if instead of the 1938 hurricane, which wikipedia lists as being a 160 mph cat 5 at it's peak, you replaced it with 185 mph Hurricane Dorian and kept the atmospheric set up that sent the 1938 storm into New England. Maybe it would be able to maintain enough intensity to squeak in a landfall as a Cat 5. Shocking and unexpected things can happen. However, it's all hypothetical, and I know this can be touchy subject, so I won't harp on it. Just throwing my two cents.

[toad strangler]

These two storms were likely solid 4's or 5's further south. It seems like a hit from a newly-developing Cat 3 is different from a hit from a Cat 3 that is an ex-5. Think of Floyd or Mitch; their wind energy was transferred to epic rain at their continental landfalls. I wonder if it has to do with the vast amounts of bundled energy that need to be dissipated; if it doesn't happen through wind it may happen through rain. Also these extremely strong storms have had time to build up exceptional surges. I'm not a meteorologist, though, just an observer.

As to being still a Cat 5 at landfall, I agree with those that say NC Outer Banks at the most, if climate change expands the envelope of what is possible. The Gulf Stream peels away from the coast and ocean temps drop pretty quickly after that.

Yeah good point. It seems like they were both strong majors in the south and then got caught in an atmospheric setup that caused them to move exceptionally quickly to the north and hit New England while still packing a punch, on top of having that potential "ex-5" energy like you're saying.

I guess I respectfully disagree in terms of the range of a potential 5, although I certainly get where you're coming from and could be wrong, I'm no meteorologist myself. My logic on this is that climate change sometimes seems to increase extremes as well as averages. Imagine if instead of the 1938 hurricane, which wikipedia lists as being a 160 mph cat 5 at it's peak, you replaced it with 185 mph Hurricane Dorian and kept the atmospheric set up that sent the 1938 storm into New England. Maybe it would be able to maintain enough intensity to squeak in a landfall as a Cat 5. Shocking and unexpected things can happen. However, it's all hypothetical, and I know this can be touchy subject, so I won't harp on it. Just throwing my two cents.

IMO your thoughts are right out of fiction rather than the known. It's nice for a fireside chat in the winter I guess. You aren't getting a Cat 5 into New England. End of story. Climate change or not.

[HurricaneEdouard]

While a Category 5 hurricane making landfall in New England at that intensity is indeed extremely unlikely - I would say essentially meteorologically impossible in the 21st century, at least, and there is no historical or known paleotempestological evidence for such a storm going back several centuries - a Category 4 hurricane landfalling at that intensity, far north of Hazel's landfall, is very possible, and indeed, has likely happened multiple times over the past few centuries. All it takes is a sufficiently intense hurricane racing northward at approximately 50mph over warmer-than-average SSTs, with baroclinic interaction briefly enhancing intensification or slowing weakening. As noted earlier, the 1635 Great Colonial Hurricane likely struck Long Island and Connecticut as a Category 4 hurricane (yes, some have speculated a Category 5 intensity out at sea, but not at landfall) with a minimum pressure in the 930s and a storm surge of over 20 feet, likely making it the strongest hurricane to hit New England since European colonisation in 1620. (See reanalysis via SLOSH modelling at https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf) The 1815 hurricane likely struck Long Island and Connecticut as an upper-end Category 3 hurricane. The 1821 Norfolk-Long Island Hurricane likely struck New Jersey as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane (I would verge on minimal Cat 3 for NJ landfall, based on https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4258685/ and https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley ... -9615(2001)071[0027:LARIOH]2.0.CO;2), and there is sedimentary evidence of a stronger (I would argue considerably stronger, given the thickness of the overwash fan and the indication the storm surge penetrated far deeper inland, due to the coastline being further out back then) hurricane striking New Jersey between 1278 and 1438; based on the comparison to the 1821 Hurricane, I would estimate this prehistoric storm to be a Category 4 hurricane, possibly striking at high tide (the 1821 hurricane struck at very low tide), possibly even more intense than the 1635 hurricane. (See here: http://www.geo.brown.edu/georesearch/es ... Jersey.pdf)

If you want to imagine what such a northern storm might look like on satellite, look no further than Hurricane Ella in 1978, which, thanks to baroclinic instability as it interacted with a mid-latitude system, rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane just south of Nova Scotia, passing the same latitude as New York City. (It became extratropical 24 hours later; the 1938 Long Island Express, a strong Category 3 hurricane at landfall on Long Island, was likely undergoing extratropical transition at landfall, in comparison.) As you can see, it looks rather like a leaner, meaner version of Hurricane Bob.



So, in terms of doomsday storms, a Category 5 hurricane weakening to a Category 4 before striking New England is certainly possible and, indeed, a climatological inevitability. But maintaining Category 5 intensity that far north? No.

It doesn't really matter, though; a Category 4 hurricane striking New York City would still likely be the deadliest and costliest American hurricane in history. I recall one meteorologist on this site, Derek Ortt, using SLOSH simulations, minimal lead time (due to racing forward speed of such storms; the Long Island Express was actually slower than most previous New England major hurricanes) and the logistical impossibility of mass evacuations to predict a death toll of hundreds of thousands and half a trillion dollars in damages in such an event, and the insurance company Swiss Re predicted a $107 billion storm if the 1821 storm (which is far from the doomsday scenario) repeated itself.