Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Great points above on a dearth of hits from the east as well. the peninsula has had exceptionally...indeed almost comedic good luck in recent years. When was the last time a hurricane tore across the state from the east and headed into the gulf? It seems that should happen with far greater frequency than it has in recent years. Dorian looked like it was going to do that and yet it was another fake out.

[TheStormExpert]

This is another effort to draw desired conclusions from the unknowable. The last time we hit 99 at Tampa was 1985. Elena waves hello. I'm not suggesting we're going to have an Elena scare. That would be silly. As would any other conclusion at this point. We have enough trouble and headaches with a 5 day track. Enjoy the downtime

1985 might be another good analog year considering there was a La Niña. Although I’d expect way more than 11 named storms, more like 18-20. And a slightly higher total in terms of hurricanes and major hurricanes. ACE that year was also fairly low at 88 units which is near normal. ACE this year could be well into the 100’s in my opinion.

Still have at least the slightest bit of uneasy feeling especially for the peninsula of Florida in regards to a Tropical Storm or Hurricane threat this season. I’m more concerned about something coming up from the south and west as opposed to the east from a long tracking Cape Verde type storm like Irma, Frances, or Andrew.

Irma came from the South. Even though she was a CV system. She still came from the south. The only true E coast landfalls I can think of this century are:

2004 Frances CAT 2
2004 Jeanne CAT 3
2005 Katrina CAT 1

Somebody please correct me if I missed something but I don't think I did. We are at 15 years now without a E Coast hit. tick, tick, tick, tick

We had three huge close calls BUT NO CIGAR this century so far:

2016 Matthew CAT 4
2017 Irma Cat 4
2019 Dorian CAT 5

Yes Irma did come from the south even though it tracked nearly due west all the way from just west of the Cape Verde islands to the northern coast of Cuba. So in a sense it still qualifies as a threat from the east. Storms like Irene (1999), Charley (2004), and Wilma are what I’m referring to when I say south and west.

And yes you’re correct on that it’s been 15 years since a hurricane hit on the east coast of Florida. The SE Coast of Florida is way overdue for a hurricane hit and the clock is ticking!

Was it you that posted the return period of when hurricanes strike the U.S. coastline? If so do you mind posting it again?

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1277556557153173507



 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1277553461798875138



 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1277212705418600449



 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1277593208822743040



 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1277595721676607490

[psyclone]

The last couple weeks have certainly demonstrated the old axiom... if it doesn't rain it gets hot. Water temps from Key west/Florida bay up toward Cedar Key are near 90. Once this high pressure relents we're going to have quite a convective blow off. Imagine if a pattern like this preceded a significant tropical threat and a system had near 90 water temps within 20-50 miles of shore...yikes..

[gatorcane]

Wow this SAL has put a big dent in the rain here in South Florida. After a record-breaking month of May rain, it has been bone dry. I don’t think it has rained a lot since 6/19. Things are hot and dusty out there. Strange because end-of-June is usually our wettest time.

[FireRat]

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1277556557153173507

Damn, the most disturbing thing about that graphic is how ALL the top 10 warmest average Miami days have been in 2017, 2019 and this 2020 so far. Those waters off Southeast FL must be cooking, and have been cooking for quite some time without any major hurricanes to churn them up or have major cold fronts chill them down. I think that perhaps, the lack of hurricane strikes on southeast FL have contributed to the existence of this untouched bathwater surrounding the metro areas, which might have had an extra effect on less cold winters down there and now this ridiculous warmth. Perhaps it's Nature's way to level the balance with a big hurricane, which will cool off the waters and allow for more normal water temps to affect the weather in Southeast FL...soon perhaps?

The years after Andrew were cool in the Miami area, but gradually became hotter from 2000 up until Wilma hit in 2005 (Georges and Irene probably cooled waters some in the late 90s), then temps became more bearable for longer periods of time from 2006 to 2010, but after 2011 things got ridiculously hotter and hotter with each passing year...and of course no hurricane hits. That's how I remember it being when I used to live down there up until 2016, and this insanity of 2019-2020 sounds like a breaking point.

Irma could have done it had she not just brushed the area, although she may have cooled the waters around the keys.for a time. Perhaps it takes more than 1 hurricane for this effect on SSTs down there. On the contrary, no hits occurred in Southeast FL in the years between 1966 and 1991, and the 1980s had cold winters...but I have a feeling there must be some tie between lack of hurricanes and hotter South FL weather...and then once things get out of balance, comes a big monster hurricane to even things out again...and yeah the clock is ticking!

I really hope you guys down there have a hurricane plan in case a big one does head for Miami-Ft Lauderdale or Palm Beach this season.
Dorian was a close one, but too far away to have any effect on the waters near South FL, it might have been a "warning shot" of what could happen when a 'Cane comes through untouched bathwater.

I'd rather you guys get that heat instead of a monster knocking on your door, the luck will run out eventually, just a matter of time and this heat phenomenon in Miami the last few years is eerie to say the least. What do u guys think, am I nuts?

[floridasun78]

we hit 98 here in miami on tue real hot days of summer

[northjaxpro]

Latest 00Z GFS and 00Z UKMET hinting strongly of potential tropical cyclone development out of Apalachee Bay this holidsy weekend over North and Northeast Florida, with potential TC development just off shore of Jacksonville per 00Z GFS by Sunday morning.

Very wet, stormy weekend here for sure. More later....

[Patrick99]

I’m surprised no ones mentioned that this ridge sitting on top of us is basically the SE ridge we all have a love/hate relationship with in the winter months.

This is somewhat anecdotal, but in my experience the hottest summers in South-Central FL tend to precede uneventful hurricane seasons, in terms of local TC impacts, whether from CV or “homegrown” (late-season) systems. Perhaps this is related to the fact that the west-coast sea-breeze tends to dominate when the Bermuda High is weak and/or displaced farther north(-east) than it typically is, resulting in very high temperatures over coastal and interior portions of the southern and central peninsula. So maybe this current spate of heat is an auspicious signal for the rest of the hurricane season.

This is another effort to draw desired conclusions from the unknowable. The last time we hit 99 at Tampa was 1985. Elena waves hello. I'm not suggesting we're going to have an Elena scare. That would be silly. As would any other conclusion at this point. We have enough trouble and headaches with a 5 day track. Enjoy the downtime

Ah, Elena. We were vacationing in Sarasota at the time, and the rising waters at our beach hotel scared us into going home. As it turned out, just staying would have been fine, but I guess no way to know that back then as we didn't have reliable models or anything.

I'd wager that none of us will see a storm like Elena ever again. What a weirdo storm/track that was.

[Patrick99]

Maybe a dumb question.......if I'm trying to figure out what the general thunderstorm motion will be for any given day, what level of the atmosphere should I really be looking at for best results?

Somehow, I have a feeling that the answer may be "it depends," but if any meteorologists could weigh in on this, it would be appreciated.

[Nuno]

This unseasonably dry spell preceded the SAL burst though, didn't it? There doesn't seem to be any relief in sight, as if Florida's climate has temporarily turned into SoCal, just bone dry. Miami-FTL area short three, approaching four inches from normal of precipitation during this two week period.

[Patrick99]

This unseasonably dry spell preceded the SAL burst though, didn't it? There doesn't seem to be any relief in sight, as if Florida's climate has temporarily turned into SoCal, just bone dry. Miami-FTL area short three, approaching four inches from normal of precipitation during this two week period.

I swear this is the way it has been for many wet seasons now. We get most of our rain in a handful of "rain events" from May-October, and the rest is mostly dry. Something about the normal daily cycle of widespread seabreeze/landbreeze driven convection has been breaking down for weeks at a time, a few times a year, every season of late. And it isn't just SAL, because SAL comes around every year, and doesn't necessarily always tamp us down to 0% rain chances. It used to be that even if all the afternoon convection was getting strongly pushed over to the west coast of FL, on the east coast we would at least stand a chance of getting some in the early morning hours from land breeze-enhanced stuff drifting onshore. That rarely happens these days! Now, there are no morning thundershowers, and even the west coast doesn't get as much in the afternoon. On the balance, I feel like something has changed. Not to say that we never have the big seabreeze convection days on both coasts anymore, but I do think it is more rare than it used to be.

It actually is more similar to California weather now. They get most of their rain from their occasional "atmospheric river" rain events, and lately, we get ours from abnormally wet surges of moisture from the Caribbean.

[psyclone]

strong high pressure occasionally tamps down our convection. it's part of the routine of summer. it is rare for it to last this long. when it does, pressure builds until it boils over. we're way past due for a boil over and it is likely sooner than later. the longer a summer dry spell lasts, the more dramatic its eventual end is.

[toad strangler]

Good prospects in my neck of the woods. White dot is me in St. Lucie West

[Patrick99]

There is convection over inland SFL, slowly drifting toward the metros. Dollars to donuts the sun goes down and these storms run out of steam just as they are reaching our western-most suburbs.

[toad strangler]

Good prospects in my neck of the woods. White dot is me in St. Lucie West

Fail. I got fringed

[psyclone]

In 2 decades here...never have I seen drought stressed, burned out grass on july 1...until this year. Absent wetting rains in the next few days... we run a risk of fireworks induced wildfires.. a risk that may be extra enhanced due to cancelation of public fireworks displays and more people buying their own. rain chances might be increasing just in time..

[Patrick99]

I am happy to have been somewhat wrong. Just rained. It didn't rain a lot, but it was measurable at least - first in several weeks. Did get some gusty winds as the outflow boundary rolled through.....looks like the storms intensified briefly just before sundown and held on enough to affect the metro area.

[chaser1]

Maybe a dumb question.......if I'm trying to figure out what the general thunderstorm motion will be for any given day, what level of the atmosphere should I really be looking at for best results?

Somehow, I have a feeling that the answer may be "it depends," but if any meteorologists could weigh in on this, it would be appreciated.

Not a dumb question at all. So, the quick and somewhat oversimplified answer is the 500mb level of the atmosphere. That can of course range up or down a bit but generally speaking the 500mb level is roughly 18,000'-20,000 feet elevation and considered the "mid-level" of our atmosphere and the level commonly responsible for pushing/moving developing thunderstorms along.

Lower base elevation (or diurnal) showers that come in on the surface breeze are often carried in by the lower (roughly 700mb-1000mb) levels but once these showers begin to develop vertically and begin to reach 20,000' and higher, here is where the broader core of the mid level winds begin to more broadly "grab" a maturing thunderstorm (or large area of convection) and push it in the general direction of that 500mb flow. Not the perfect example but when you think in terms of children playing football, tackling a child carrying the ball usually would mean grabbing him/her around their midsection which might only around 2' above the ground. In real life though, trying to tackle a 6' tall football player moving with a good deal of momentum around 2' off the ground might trip them up but the forward momentum will likely continue forward. Tackling a taller adult generally requires a momentum and grabbing hold around their mid-section to better exert control over their forward motion.

Of course we here in Florida may easily see thunderstorms that are able to reach well above 40,000-50,000' too. Within a fairly "flat" mid level pattern where steering is minimal, there are circumstances where the upper level winds that may range between 200mb-300mb may influence motion slightly. In those weird circumstance where the 500mb level is fairly "flat" or perhaps very very light in one direction, and yet where the upper level winds might be from the opposite direction.... where you might see a thunderstorm appear to be moving away (or mostly stationary) but the upper anvil appears to be moving or expanding toward you. That could induce a thunderstorm to expand it's overshooting tops and some rain to spread out a little.

Same general theory applies to motion of tropical storms. The less sophisticated "BAM Models" generally consist of a BAMS or "shallow" (direction of primarily surface trade winds approx 850mb-1000mb level), a BAMM "mid-level" (roughly the 400mb-750mb level), and a BAMD which takes into account the broader average flow of winds that take a slice of lower, mid level, and upper winds into account. Less vertically developed and weaker tropical storms might have their motion more affected by the lower part of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, deep and well developed hurricanes primarily track as a result of the 500mb (mid atmospheric) flow of the atmosphere. Ultimately, a combination of lower, to mid and upper level flow can influence short & long term track of a well developed hurricane especially when taking into account TUTT's and Cut-Off Lows. Those features can themselves be transient or more or less stationary.

[Patrick99]

Maybe a dumb question.......if I'm trying to figure out what the general thunderstorm motion will be for any given day, what level of the atmosphere should I really be looking at for best results?

Somehow, I have a feeling that the answer may be "it depends," but if any meteorologists could weigh in on this, it would be appreciated.

Not a dumb question at all. So, the quick and somewhat oversimplified answer is the 500mb level of the atmosphere. That can of course range up or down a bit but generally speaking the 500mb level is roughly 18,000'-20,000 feet elevation and considered the "mid-level" of our atmosphere and the level commonly responsible for pushing/moving developing thunderstorms along.

Lower base elevation (or diurnal) showers that come in on the surface breeze are often carried in by the lower (roughly 700mb-1000mb) levels but once these showers begin to develop vertically and begin to reach 20,000' and higher, here is where the broader core of the mid level winds begin to more broadly "grab" a maturing thunderstorm (or large area of convection) and push it in the general direction of that 500mb flow. Not the perfect example but when you think in terms of children playing football, tackling a child carrying the ball usually would mean grabbing him/her around their midsection which might only around 2' above the ground. In real life though, trying to tackle a 6' tall football player moving with a good deal of momentum around 2' off the ground might trip them up but the forward momentum will likely continue forward. Tackling a taller adult generally requires a momentum and grabbing hold around their mid-section to better exert control over their forward motion.

Of course we here in Florida may easily see thunderstorms that are able to reach well above 40,000-50,000' too. Within a fairly "flat" mid level pattern where steering is minimal, there are circumstances where the upper level winds that may range between 200mb-300mb may influence motion slightly. In those weird circumstance where the 500mb level is fairly "flat" or perhaps very very light in one direction, and yet where the upper level winds might be from the opposite direction.... where you might see a thunderstorm appear to be moving away (or mostly stationary) but the upper anvil appears to be moving or expanding toward you. That could induce a thunderstorm to expand it's overshooting tops and some rain to spread out a little.

Same general theory applies to motion of tropical storms. The less sophisticated "BAM Models" generally consist of a BAMS or "shallow" (direction of primarily surface trade winds approx 850mb-1000mb level), a BAMM "mid-level" (roughly the 400mb-750mb level), and a BAMD which takes into account the broader average flow of winds that take a slice of lower, mid level, and upper winds into account. Less vertically developed and weaker tropical storms might have their motion more affected by the lower part of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, deep and well developed hurricanes primarily track as a result of the 500mb (mid atmospheric) flow of the atmosphere. Ultimately, a combination of lower, to mid and upper level flow can influence short & long term track of a well developed hurricane especially when taking into account TUTT's and Cut-Off Lows. Those features can themselves be transient or more or less stationary.

This is very helpful. Thanks!