EPAC: DOUGLAS - Models

[Kingarabian]

00z GEFS mean not budging.

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS mean continues to be further south.

[Bocadude85]

00z EPS mean continues to be further south.
https://i.imgur.com/kSkkoeb.png

If I’m not mistaken that is farther south then the 12z.

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS mean continues to be further south.
https://i.imgur.com/kSkkoeb.png

If I’m not mistaken that is farther south then the 12z.

That's likely due to ensembles coming in weaker on the 00z compared to the 12z.

[Bocadude85]

So far the 6z GFS is coming in slightly stronger and slightly southwest of the 0z.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS brushes Oahu and Kauai.


06z ICON still into the Big Island.

[Kingarabian]

06z HMON much more SW through hour 45... my head is spinning. Borderline cat.2 into Oahu.

[Kingarabian]

06z GEFS:



06z Euro is a subtle shift north and grazes Kauai and Oahu. But it's close enough that a wobble would result in landfall.

[Kingarabian]

12z ICON shifted north and now has a Maui landfall.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS continues to clear Hawaii and keeps the center about 30 miles off shore.

[Kingarabian]

Big shift north on the 12z UKMET and has it missing all the islands. Good news.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is a bit more south and it does appear that some part of the center makes landfall over Oahu. Definitely hits Kauai more cleanly compared to previous runs.

12zHMON has a borderline cat.2 barely miss Oahu. It's hard to see 100% due to the fast movement of Douglas where even 3hr increments arent precise.

12z CMC not budging from its Maui landfall.

[Bocadude85]

12z Euro is a bit more south and it does appear that some part of the center makes landfall over Oahu. Definitely hits Kauai more cleanly compared to previous runs.

12zHMON has a borderline cat.2 barely miss Oahu. It's hard to see 100% due to the fast movement of Douglas where even 3hr increments arent precise.

12z CMC not budging from its Maui landfall.

According to the CPHC Douglas has moved due west the last 3 hours, at 5 am he was at 19.1 N 148.4, at the 8am intermittent advisory Douglas was at 19.1 N 149.1 W. It’s hard to see how any of those more northerly model runs come to fruition if this more westward motion continues much longer.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is a bit more south and it does appear that some part of the center makes landfall over Oahu. Definitely hits Kauai more cleanly compared to previous runs.

12zHMON has a borderline cat.2 barely miss Oahu. It's hard to see 100% due to the fast movement of Douglas where even 3hr increments arent precise.

12z CMC not budging from its Maui landfall.

According to the CPHC Douglas has moved due west the last 3 hours, at 5 am he was at 19.1 N 148.4, at the 8am intermittent advisory Douglas was at 19.1 N 149.1 W. It’s hard to see how any of those more northerly model runs come to fruition if this more westward motion continues much longer.

Yeah clearly it has veered southwest from the official track. Could be a short term thing. But these movements will count down the line since we're literally walking a tight rope here.

[Kingarabian]

12z GEFS mean is still pretty south of the forecast track:


12z EPS mean continues to be south as well:


However it has a few stronger members clearing the islands to the north.

[Bocadude85]

12z GEFS mean is still pretty south of the forecast track:
https://i.imgur.com/myMQy4h.png

12z EPS mean continues to be south as well:
https://i.imgur.com/PJTFiK0.png

However it has a few stronger members clearing the islands to the north.

Douglas will need to resume a more northerly heading very soon for those northern members to verify.

[Kingarabian]

12z GEFS mean is still pretty south of the forecast track:
https://i.imgur.com/myMQy4h.png

12z EPS mean continues to be south as well:
https://i.imgur.com/PJTFiK0.png

However it has a few stronger members clearing the islands to the north.

Douglas will need to resume a more northerly heading very soon for those northern members to verify.

Agreed. It's pretty clear in these verification plots.

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON rakes Maui county:

[Kingarabian]

The July 24th 12z GFS Parallel continues to show a landfall compared to the operational July 24th 12z GFS. The GFS parallel is running a full day late so we can only compare it with previous OP GFS runs.

18z GFS similar to previous runs.

[Kingarabian]

18z HMON clears the islands to the north.