ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11661 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:25 am

You can tell it's La Niña/cool neutral when this post is dead for an entire week :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11662 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:35 am

Appears that the longstanding easterly wind burst is initiating another upwelling Kelvin wave:

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11663 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:15 pm

Also the SOI is finally opening up for a La Nina event, the first time in 3 years. I think come October both the ocean and atmosphere will be primed for a La Nina to completely take over. Cool neutral will continue in the meanwhile.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11664 Postby StruThiO » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:59 am

Image

Basin-wide cooling at the surface continues as relentlessly strong trades across nearly the entire Pacific refuse to relax

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11665 Postby St0rmTh0r » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:06 am

Kingarabian wrote:Also the SOI is finally opening up for a La Nina event, the first time in 3 years. I think come October both the ocean and atmosphere will be primed for a La Nina to completely take over. Cool neutral will continue in the meanwhile.

If this happens the season will have a longer peak well into October and November!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11666 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:10 am

St0rmTh0r wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Also the SOI is finally opening up for a La Nina event, the first time in 3 years. I think come October both the ocean and atmosphere will be primed for a La Nina to completely take over. Cool neutral will continue in the meanwhile.

If this happens the season will have a longer peak well into October and November!


Hmmmm, I just saw another post elsewhere on this site saying essentially the exact opposite...that a brief 2017-style La Nina was looking more likely.
Last edited by SconnieCane on Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11667 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:36 am

SconnieCane wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Also the SOI is finally opening up for a La Nina event, the first time in 3 years. I think come October both the ocean and atmosphere will be primed for a La Nina to completely take over. Cool neutral will continue in the meanwhile.

If this happens the season will have a longer peak well into October and November!


Hmmmm, I just saw another post elsewhere on this site saying essential the exact opposite...that a brief 2017-style La Nina was looking more likely.


Yeah I saw that too and disregarded.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11668 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:45 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Also the SOI is finally opening up for a La Nina event, the first time in 3 years. I think come October both the ocean and atmosphere will be primed for a La Nina to completely take over. Cool neutral will continue in the meanwhile.

If this happens the season will have a longer peak well into October and November!


Hmmmm, I just saw another post elsewhere on this site saying essentially the exact opposite...that a brief 2017-style La Nina was looking more likely.

2017's event was a complete La Nina that lasted from September 2017 through April 2018. 2005's event started later. I think maybe a mixture of the two. I believe cool neutral conditions will be present for the most of the season, similar to 2005 and 2017.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11669 Postby StruThiO » Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:58 am

Massive trade burst underway:

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11670 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:07 am

Big cool down last week.

Nino 1+2 at -1.1C
Nino 3 at -0.7C
Nino 3.4 at -0.8C
Nino 4 at -0.4C
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.8C

#11671 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:30 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11672 Postby StruThiO » Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:42 am

ONI for MJJ was -0.2C..
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for MJJ down to -0.2C

#11673 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:58 pm

We're running cooler than 2005 and 2017 at this point in time. There's is still that small pool of warm anomalies beneath Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 that will help keep ENSO cool-neutral for longer.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11674 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:07 pm

Trades will relax over the EPAC and there might be a WWB over the CPAC/east of the dateline. This will slow down the snowball towards a full fledged La Nina that we've seen in the past month, and keep things cool neutral for a little longer.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11675 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 10, 2020 6:47 am

Central ENSO regions warmed up some last week.
Today's update:

Nino 1+2 down to -1.2C
Nino 3 up to -0.6C
Nino 3.4 up to -0.6C
Nino 4 up to -0.3C
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC monthly update: 60% of La Niña by the fall

#11676 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:49 am

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 August 2020

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch


Synopsis: There is a ~60% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~55% chance).

By early August 2020, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were below average in the equatorial Pacific from the Date Line to the west coast of South America [Fig. 1]. The four Niño indices were negative during the latest week, with the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 indices at -0.6°C [Fig. 2]. Negative equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W), which had weakened during June and early July, began re-strengthening in mid-July [Fig. 3] as below-average subsurface temperatures re-emerged in the east-central equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. During July, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across most of the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over portions of the far western, central, and eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and was near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] are split between La Niña and ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the fall and winter, but slightly favor La Niña from the August-October through the November-January seasons. Based largely on dynamical model guidance, the forecaster consensus favors La Niña development during the August-October season, lasting through winter 2020-21. In summary, there is a ~60% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


Image

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC monthly update: 60% of La Niña by the fall

#11677 Postby StruThiO » Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:38 pm

Indeed the recent easterly wind stress has generated an upwelling Kelvin wave even stronger than the last.

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC monthly update: 60% of La Niña by the fall

#11678 Postby StruThiO » Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:43 pm

July PDO fell to -0.38. Coolest July since 2013.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC monthly update: 60% of La Niña by the fall

#11679 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:16 pm

StruThiO wrote:Indeed the recent easterly wind stress has generated an upwelling Kelvin wave even stronger than the last.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/omwvm7g.png[url]


Modoki La Nina anyone?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11680 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:14 pm

SOI has been in the cool-neutral range of about +4/+6 since July. So the atmospheric coupling is there. Let's see if it can reach the +10/+15 (La Nina) range after the MJO leaves the Pacific.
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