ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

[cycloneye]

TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
1500 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...AND NEVIS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...AND ST. MARTIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MAARTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
* GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...AND ST. MARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 53.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 90 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 53.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 52.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.8N 56.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.0N 60.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.3N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 60SE 0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.8N 67.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.1N 70.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.3N 73.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.1N 77.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N 80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 53.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 53.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, including
Vieques, and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat,
St. Kitts, and Nevis.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of St. Maartin has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maartin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maartin

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.8 North, longitude 53.7 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion
should continue during the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on
Wednesday, and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development and a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Wednesday and spread into the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce total rain
accumulation of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
possible across the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce
life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential
riverine flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased overnight and this
morning in association with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Recent visible
satellite imagery and ASCAT data show that the system's circulation
is quite elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Observations
from NOAA buoy 41040 and ASCAT suggest that the system is
already producing winds of 30-35 kt, and the systems's initial
intensity has been set to 35 kt. Dry air located just to the north
of the system has been hindering development over the past couple of
days, but environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive
for development over the next couple of days. Therefore, the system
is likely to become a tropical storm before it reaches the Leeward
Islands and advisories are being initiated in order to issue
Tropical Storm Warnings for a portion of the Leeward Islands, the
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. A U.S. Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system early this afternoon, and should provide additional
information on the intensity and structure of the low pressure
area.

It cannot be stressed enough that since the system is still in the
formative stage, greater than average uncertainty exists regarding
both the short-term and longer-term track and intensity forecasts.
A subtropical ridge that extends westward from the central Atlantic
is expected to be the dominant steering mechanism over the next
several days, and the flow around this ridge should steer the low
pressure area generally west-northwestward. However, the details in
the track forecast could change depending on exactly where within
elongated circulation the center forms. Regardless of the exact
track, the system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to
much of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical-storm-force winds to
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
within the next 24-48 hours. After that time, a general west-
northwestward heading should continue but as mentioned before,
uncertainty exists as to how close the system tracks to
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. The NHC track forecast
is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. It
should be noted that a stronger cyclone is likely to favor a more
northern track, while a weaker system is likely to remain more
equatorward. Users should remember that the long-term average NHC
track forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are 140 and 175 n mi,
respectively.

Given the current structure of the system, only gradual
strengthening is predicted during the next day or two, however the
system is expected to become a tropical storm when it is near the
Leeward Islands on Wednesday. After 48 hours, possible land
interaction with the Greater Antilles, and increasing south to
southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough could temper further
strengthening. The global models generally weaken the system due to
these negative factors and the NHC forecast calls for little change
in strength at the longer range. Interests in Hispaniola, the
Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as
changes to both track and intensity are likely.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Wednesday
through Thursday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and
wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a
well-defined center and could move over portions of the Greater
Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some
rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the
Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should
monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.8N 53.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/0000Z 14.8N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 29/1200Z 16.0N 60.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 30/0000Z 17.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 18.8N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 20.1N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 21.3N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 24.1N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 26.8N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT BEGINNING TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE...
...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 54.8W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maartin
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.1 North, longitude 54.8 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with some
reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the
Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or
Wednesday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development and a tropical storm is forecast to form
tonight or Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is currently investigating the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high ...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Wednesday and spread into the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning. These conditions could begin reach portions of the north
coast of the Dominican Republic early Thursday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce total rain
accumulation of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
possible across the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce
life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential
riverine flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Blown Away]

Wow, TS winds 230 miles away from center. It's coming for you Luis in PR...

[caneseddy]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 282039
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 55.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern coast
of the Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominica
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern
coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the
southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.


For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.4 North, longitude 55.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with
some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move
through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over
Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development and a tropical storm is forecast to form
tonight or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning and spread across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning. These conditions are expected to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early
Thursday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.

Rainfall is also expected in the following locations:

Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[caneseddy]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 282040
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

The overall structure of the disturbance has not changed much since
this morning. New clusters of convection have developed over the
northern portion of the elongated circulation and the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has been unable to find a
well-defined center. The aircraft measured some SFMR winds of
30-35 kt well to the northwest of the trough axis, and these data
along with the earlier ASCAT form the basis of the 35 kt initial
intensity. The lastest dynamical model guidance still suggests that
the system will consolidate over the next 12-18 hours and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the Leeward Islands on Wednesday.

The particulars of the track forecast remain uncertain since
the system lacks a well-defined center. The initial motion estimate
is a highly uncertain 285/20 kt. The overall track foreast reasoning
remains the same, with the disturbance expected to move
west-northwestward over the next several days to the south of a
subtropical ridge that extends westward over the western Atlantic.
The 12Z track guidance is in agreement on the overall scenario, but
some differences are noted due primarily to the system's strength
and vertical depth. Models such as the UKMET and HWRF, which
depict a stronger cyclone, are along the northern side of the
guidance envelope, while the weaker solutions remain more
equatorward. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and lies a little south of the various consensus
aids. Regardless of the exact track, the system is expected to
bring locally heavy rainfall to much of the Lesser Antilles, and
tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico within the next 24-36 hours.

The global model guidance suggests that the system will consolidate
overnight and should acquire a better defined center. As this
occurs, the disturbance is likely to gradually strengthen within
the low vertical wind shear environment that it is situated in.
Between 36 and 72 hours, the strength of the system will largely be
dependent on the amount of land it encounters. If the system moves
over the Greater Antilles it is likely to be weaker than indicated
in the official forecast, but a path north or south of Hispaniola
could result in a stronger system. Later in the period, some
southwesterly shear could also temper further strengthening. The
GFS and ECMWF models generally weaken the system in the longer
range due to these negative factors. The NHC intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous advisory, but an usually high degree of
uncertainty regarding the future track and intensity of the system
remains. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida
should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both track and
intensity are likely.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of
the Dominican Republic beginning Wednesday and spreading westward
through Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these
areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as
rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the
system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a
well-defined center and it could move over portions of the Greater
Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some
rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the
Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should
monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 14.4N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/0600Z 15.4N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 16.7N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 18.2N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 19.7N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 20.9N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 22.2N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 24.7N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 27.0N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DISTURBANCE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 58.7W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominica
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern
coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the
southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance center has re-formed near
latitude 14.2 North, longitude 58.7 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (40 km/h), and this general
motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to
move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over
Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Wednesday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
tonight or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high... 90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning, and spread across the
U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early
Thursday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.

Rainfall is also expected in the following locations:

Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 59.4W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the Turks and Caicos Islands. The government of the Dominican
Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast
of its country from the border with Haiti eastward to Punta
Caucedo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominica
* Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and
then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to
Punta Caucedo
* Turks and Caicos Islands

Interests elsewhere in the southeast and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 14.6 North, longitude 59.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move
through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning, and spread across the
U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas on Thursday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.

Rainfall is also expected in the following locations:

Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

Earlier wind data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft and a
recent 0038Z ASCAT-A overpass indicate that the disturbance has not
become any better organized since the previous advisory. There were
indications of a circulation center located near the position
estimate used in this advisory. However, there was a sharp cusp
noted in the ASCAT wind field, and that was used for positioning
the disturbance since it lies closest to the strong convective band
and best upper-level divergence. The initial intensity of 35 kt is
based on several ASCAT wind vectors of 35-36 kt located well north
of the center. The 35-kt intensity is also consistent with a 0000Z
TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/22 kt. The ridge to
the north of the disturbance is forecast to remain strong for the
next 36-48 h, which keeps the system moving in a general
west-northwestward direction across the Lesser Antilles tonight and
Wednesday, and near or over the Greater Antilles Wednesday night and
Thursday. For such a loosely organized system at this time, the
models are in fairly good agreement on the large disturbance
slowing down significantly after 48 h, reaching forward speeds of
only 10-12 kt when it reaches the very warm waters of the Straits
of Florida in 72-96 h. On days 4 and 5, the system is expected to
slow even further and turn northward into a break in the subtropical
ridge that is expected to develop across Florida and the Bahamas.
The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a little south of the
previous advisory track, mainly due to the more westward initial
position, and lies along the southern portion of the guidance
envelope near the middle of the consensus models. Regardless of
the exact track, the system is expected to bring locally heavy
rainfall to much of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical-storm-force
winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.

The intensity forecast remains problematic for primarily two
reasons: 1) the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind
field and 2) likely land interaction to some degree. In the
short-term, a bonafide center could develop tonight in response to
the expected development of intense convection caused by orographic
forcing by the mountainous islands of the central and northern
Leeward Islands. Once a center closes off, which has likely been
inhibited from doing so due to the disturbance's fast forward speed
in excess of 20 kt, the low-level convergence will improve and
convection will become more organized and symmetrical, allowing for
strengthening to occur. The main question is how much land
interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will disrupt the
circulation in the 36-48-hour period. Assuming the system remains
intact after emerging off the coast of Hispaniola, the slow track
over the very warm waters of the Straits of Florida would result in
more strengthening, assuming the system doesn't interact with the
Cuban landmass. Although the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity
guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of
20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the
Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced
shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's
impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations. As a
result, this is not being considered a negative intensity factor
compared to land interaction. Due to aforementioned uncertainties,
the new NHC intensity forecast remains on the conservative side, and
lies between the slightly weaker IVCN and stronger NOAA-HCCA
consensus models. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and
Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both the
track and intensity are likely.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of
the Dominican Republic beginning Wednesday and spreading westward
through Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these
areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as
rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the
system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a
well-defined center and it could move over portions of the Greater
Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some
rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the
Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should
monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.6N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1200Z 15.7N 62.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 17.4N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 18.7N 69.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 20.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 31/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 22.8N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 25.7N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/0000Z 27.9N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the north coast of
Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern
border with the Dominican Republic.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominica
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and
then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to
Cabo Caucedo
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

Interests in the central and northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should
monitor the progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.3 North, longitude 61.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with
some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center will move through the
southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, near or over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, near or over
Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over the southeastern Bahamas
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast today, with weakening
likely on Thursday due to land interaction, and some
restrengthening possible late week.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center. Antigua recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph
(76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the
Leeward Islands now and will spread across the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through
Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas
on Thursday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and the Turks and
Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of
12 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be
affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These dangerous conditions
are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic and
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on
Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

Satellite and surface data indicate that the system remains a
trough of low pressure, elongated from SSW to NNE, with almost all
of the strong winds far north of the center position. The most
significant curvature in the low-level wind field and on radar are
near Dominica now, which has good continuity from the previous
advisory, so this feature will continue to be used as the center.
A combination of unflagged SFMR winds from an Air Force plane and
earlier scatterometer winds support 40 kt as the initial wind speed.

The initial motion estimate is about the same as before or 295/20
kt. The ridge to the north of the disturbance is forecast to remain
strong for the next 36 h, which keeps the system moving speedily in
a general west-northwestward direction just south of the Leeward
Islands today, and near or over the Greater Antilles on Thursday.
The ridge is forecast to weaken after that time, which should cause
the cyclone to slow down, and potentially gain more latitude over
the southwestern Atlantic. The model guidance is generally showing
a narrow ridge persisting for a bit longer, however, causing a
small south and west shift in the new NHC forecast at long range.
However, it should be emphasized that this forecast track is highly
uncertain until a true center forms.

Satellite images indicate that a large burst of convection is
occuring near the poorly defined center, which will likely lead to
the system becoming a tropical storm later today. Further
intensification is possible before landfall in the Dominican
Republic on Thursday, assuming the structure continues to improve,
and the wind speed forecast is adjusted slightly higher in the near
term. The cyclone will probably take some time to recover after
moving over the very high mountains of Hispaniola, and some of the
guidance after that time shows an increase in southwesterly shear
over the Straits of Florida that could limit the potential of the
cyclone. Simply put, there are a lot of hurdles in the system's
way, so it is best to stay on the conservative side at the moment
and continue to stress the large uncertainty after it leaves the
Caribbean. Little change was made to the forecast intensity,
although the guidance has come down at longer range for many of the
models.

Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should
continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both the track and
intensity are likely.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and
spreading westward to portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti
on Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas.
Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and
wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a
well-defined center and it could move over portions of the Greater
Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some
rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and
Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should monitor its
progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 15.3N 61.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1800Z 16.3N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 30/0600Z 17.8N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 19.3N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0600Z 20.6N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 31/1800Z 22.1N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 23.3N 78.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 25.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 28.5N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 62.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and
then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to
Cabo Caucedo
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

Interests in the central and northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should
monitor the progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.1 North, longitude 62.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with
some reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days.
On the forecast track, the system will move near or over Puerto Rico
tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over the
southeastern Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast today, with weakening
likely on Thursday due to land interaction, and some restrengthening
possible late week.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
primarily to the north and northeast of the center. A wind gust of
46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported on St. Kitts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the
Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through
Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas
on Thursday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and the Turks and
Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of
12 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be
affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to
reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

490
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 63.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The
government of the Bahamas has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and
then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to
Cabo Caucedo
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.8 North, longitude 63.7 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move near
or just south of Puerto Rico later today and tonight, near or over
Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over eastern Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with
weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some
restrengthening is possible by this weekend.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
primarily to the north and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the
Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning.
These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on
Thursday and Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos:
3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12
inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be
affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to
reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

Surface observations from the Lesser Antilles show that the broader
circulation of the disturbance has become slightly better defined
but a recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was still
unable to find a well-defined circulation. Therefore, the system
has not yet become a tropical cyclone. The aircraft measured peak
flight-level winds of 46 kt and several SFMR winds of around 35 kt,
so the initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.

The system continues moving briskly west-northwestward at 290/20 kt.
The forecast reasoning remains unchanged as a ridge to the north of
the system is expected to steer the disturbance west-northwestward
during the next couple of days. This motion should bring the system
near or over Hispaniola on Thursday and near eastern Cuba Thursday
night and Friday. The ridge is forecast to weaken by the weekend
which should cause a reduction in forward speed. It still must be
stressed that since the system lacks a well-defined center and
remains in its formative stage, uncertainty in the specifics of the
track forecast remain high in both the short and longer range. The
latest NHC track foreast has been nudged slightly south of the
previous advisory and lies between the latest ECMWF solution and the
various consensus aids.

Deep convection has consolidated and there is some evidence of
banding over the northern and western portions of the large
circulation. As a result, the system is still expected to become a
tropical storm later today or tonight. Some additional
intensification is then possible before the system reaches
Hispaniola on Thursday, but weakening is likely to occur while it
interacts with land. After that time, the system's close proximity
to eastern Cuba and an expected increase in southwesterly shear are
likely to inhibit significant re-strengthening. The latest NHC
wind speed forecast has been lowered from the previous advisory at
72-120 h. Given the expected land interaction and less than ideal
upper-level environment it is best to remain conservative at this
time.

Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should
continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both the track and
intensity are likely.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today and will
spread westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos on Thursday and
Thursday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these
areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as
rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the
system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a
well-defined center and it is expected to move near or over portions
of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could
bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the
central and northwest Bahamas, and Florida later this week and this
weekend. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to
the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 15.8N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 30/0000Z 16.9N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/1200Z 18.5N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 19.9N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1200Z 21.4N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR COAST
60H 01/0000Z 22.7N 78.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/1200Z 23.8N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 26.3N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 29.0N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...DISTURBANCE BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 64.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning along the south coast of the Dominican Republic west
of Cabo Caucedo to the border with Haiti.

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Martinique and Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.2 North, longitude 64.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the system will move near or just south of
Puerto Rico later today and tonight, near or over Hispaniola on
Thursday, and near or over eastern Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with
weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some
restrengthening is possible by this weekend. A wind gust of 44
mph (71 km/h) was recently reported at the Luis Munoz Marin
International Airport in San Juan. A wind gust of 44 mph mph (71
km/h) was also reported at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands
within the past few hours. In St. Maarten, a wind gust to 51 mph
(81 km/h) was observed late this morning.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
primarily to the north and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the
Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning.
These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on
Thursday and Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos:
3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12
inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be
affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to
reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 65.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Anguilla
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.4 North, longitude 65.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with
a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the system will pass south of Puerto Rico later
tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, near eastern Cuba
and the southeastern Bahamas on Friday, and approach the
northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with
weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some
restrengthening is possible by this weekend.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
primarily to the north of the center. A wind gust of 52 mph (83
km/h) was recently reported at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico through tonight. These conditions are forecast to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area
by late tonight or early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following
rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos:
3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Across the Inagua Islands and southeastern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be
affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico through Thursday. These swells are forecast to
reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

Deep convection has continued to increase in association with the
disturbance since the previous advisory. More recently, a band has
developed over the southwestern portion of the broad circulation
and it appears that the system may be closer to acquiring a
well-defined center. Earlier ASCAT data that arrived shortly after
the release of the previous advisory revealed a large area of 35-40
kt winds well to the north of the vorticity maximum. This
supports maintaining the initial intensity of 40 kt.

The estimated motion remains a brisk 290/20 kt. A strong
subtropical ridge that extends westward over the western Atlantic
should continue to steer the system west-northwestward over the next
couple of days, bringing the system near or over Hispaniola late
tonight and Thursday. A mid-latitude trough moving into the central
United States on Friday is foreast to weaken the western portion of
the ridge which should cause a reduction in the forward speed of the
system and a turn toward the northwest and north later in the
forecast period. The latest iterations of the dynamical models have
trended toward a more eastward solution, taking the system near or
just east of the Florida peninsula. Since the system still lacks a
well-defined center it is not surprising to see these
inconsistencies in the model runs. As a result, the NHC forecast
has been shifted eastward, but it remains to the west of the latest
multi-model consensus aids out of respect for continuity and the
continued possibility of further model shifts.

The system is still forecast to become a tropical storm before
reaching Hispaniola, and some slight strengthening could occur
before landfall Thursday morning. Some weakening is likely as the
system moves over that island. The system is likely to take some
time to recover after its passage over land, and given the forecast
for at least moderate south to southwesterly shear, only
gradual strengthening is indicated at that time. As mentioned
above, some of the global models are now showing a track farther
away from eastern Cuba and east of Florida, and if that occurs the
NHC intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative. Interests
in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor
forecasts as changes to both the track and intensity are likely.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy
rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the
Inagua Islands into the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
tonight and will spread westward to portions of the Dominican
Republic, Haiti, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos
on Thursday and Thursday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are in
effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track
forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the
center of the system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a
well-defined center and it is expected to move near or over portions
of the Greater Antilles later this week and move near or over
Florida this weekend. While this system could bring some rainfall
and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the central and northwest
Bahamas, and Florida later this week and this weekend, it is too
soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts.
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and
updates to the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 16.4N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 30/0600Z 17.5N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/1800Z 19.2N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0600Z 20.9N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 31/1800Z 22.3N 76.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 23.6N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 25.5N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/1800Z 28.6N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/1800Z 31.5N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Anguilla
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.0 North, longitude 66.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the system will continue to pass south of Puerto
Rico tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, near eastern Cuba
and the southeastern Bahamas on Friday, and approach the
northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with
weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some
restrengthening is possible by this weekend.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico through tonight. These conditions are forecast to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area
by late tonight or early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following
rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos:
3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Across the Inagua Islands and southeastern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be
affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico through Thursday. These swells are forecast to
reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS (PRONOUNCED
ees-ah-EE-ahs)...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 67.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Anguilla.

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
for the Central Bahamas to a Tropical Storm Warning and has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 67.0 West. Isaias is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola on
Thursday and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is likely when the center moves over Hispaniola
with some strengthening expected by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico through tonight. These conditions are forecast to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area
by late tonight or early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are
possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Across the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3
to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
eastern Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches.

Across the southeastern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will be affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Thursday. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

Deep convection has continued to increase in association with the
disturbance since the previous advisory. More recently, a band has
developed over the southwestern portion of the broad circulation
and it appears that the system may be closer to acquiring a
well-defined center. Earlier ASCAT data that arrived shortly after
the release of the previous advisory revealed a large area of 35-40
kt winds well to the north of the vorticity maximum. This
supports maintaining the initial intensity of 40 kt.

The estimated motion remains a brisk 290/20 kt. A strong
subtropical ridge that extends westward over the western Atlantic
should continue to steer the system west-northwestward over the next
couple of days, bringing the system near or over Hispaniola late
tonight and Thursday. A mid-latitude trough moving into the central
United States on Friday is foreast to weaken the western portion of
the ridge which should cause a reduction in the forward speed of the
system and a turn toward the northwest and north later in the
forecast period. The latest iterations of the dynamical models have
trended toward a more eastward solution, taking the system near or
just east of the Florida peninsula. Since the system still lacks a
well-defined center it is not surprising to see these
inconsistencies in the model runs. As a result, the NHC forecast
has been shifted eastward, but it remains to the west of the latest
multi-model consensus aids out of respect for continuity and the
continued possibility of further model shifts.

The system is still forecast to become a tropical storm before
reaching Hispaniola, and some slight strengthening could occur
before landfall Thursday morning. Some weakening is likely as the
system moves over that island. The system is likely to take some
time to recover after its passage over land, and given the forecast
for at least moderate south to southwesterly shear, only
gradual strengthening is indicated at that time. As mentioned
above, some of the global models are now showing a track farther
away from eastern Cuba and east of Florida, and if that occurs the
NHC intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative. Interests
in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor
forecasts as changes to both the track and intensity are likely.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy
rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the
Inagua Islands into the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
tonight and will spread westward to portions of the Dominican
Republic, Haiti, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos
on Thursday and Thursday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are in
effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track
forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the
center of the system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a
well-defined center and it is expected to move near or over portions
of the Greater Antilles later this week and move near or over
Florida this weekend. While this system could bring some rainfall
and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the central and northwest
Bahamas, and Florida later this week and this weekend, it is too
soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts.
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and
updates to the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 16.4N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 30/0600Z 17.5N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/1800Z 19.2N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0600Z 20.9N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 31/1800Z 22.3N 76.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 23.6N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 25.5N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/1800Z 28.6N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/1800Z 31.5N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO...
....HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 68.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system. Watches may be required for a portion of
the Florida peninsula later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 68.9 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola today and move
near the Southeastern Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Isaias is
forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and approach
the Northwest Bahamas or southern Florida Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is possible as Isaias moves over Hispaniola
today. Re-strengthening is forecast on Friday and Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
primarily to the north of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds are
occuring along the southern coast of Puerto Rico. A Weatherflow
station at Las Mareas, Puerto Rico, reported sustained winds of 45
mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A wind gust of 60
mph (96 km/h) was recently reported at Punta Cana on the eastern
tip of the Dominican Republic.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early afternoon.
These conditions are spreading over portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti within the warning area, and are expected to
spread over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos later
today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central
Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and
southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida
Saturday morning. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

The satellite presentation of Isaias has improved over the past 24
hours with a concentrated area of deep convection occurring near
and to the northeast of the low-level center. Radar imagery from
Puerto Rico has shown a mid-level circulation that moved over the
Mona passage and is now along the northern coast of Hispaniola.
Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft, however, continue to place the center near
the southeastern coast of Hispaniola. It is possible that a new
center will re-form along the northern coast of Hispaniola as the
system interacts with high terrain of that island later today or
tonight. The initial intensity remains 50 kt, and is based on the
earlier Doppler radar data and observations along the southern coast
of Puerto Rico.

Isaias is moving northwestward or 310/16 kt. A high pressure ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Isaias on a west-
northwestward to northwestward heading over the next couple of days,
but the likelihood of a center re-formation during the next 12-18
hours means that some adjustments to the track and motion are
possible. By late Friday, a mid-latitude trough moving into the
east-central United States is expected to weaken the western portion
of the ridge. This pattern should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward to north-northwestward on Saturday when it is near
the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida. As the trough slides
eastward over the United States, this should steer Isaias northward
and northeastward early next week. Although the bulk of the track
guidance agrees on this overall scenario, the confidence in the
track forecast remains lower than usual due to the expected land
interaction and possible center reformation in the short term. The
new NHC track forecast is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus
and the TCVA multi-model consensus, and is similar to the previous
advisory.

The intensity forecast remains challenging. The structure of the
storm is likely to be disrupted by its passage near or over
Hispaniola today, and some weakening is likely. Once the system
moves away from the Greater Antilles gradual strengthening is
anticipated. The global models and the SHIPS guidance suggest that
Isaias will encounter an area of moderate southwesterly shear over
the weekend, and the NHC intensity forecast is again leveled off at
that time. There are models that continue to suggest Isaias could
become a hurricane when it is near the U.S., but given the continued
uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the intensity
consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida
Saturday morning, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban
flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early afternoon and will
spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks
and Caicos and the Bahamas later today through Friday, and Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the
details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will
extend far from the center of the system.

3. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge along portions of the U.S. east coast beginning this weekend
in Florida and spreading northward to the Carolinas and southern
mid-Atlantic states early next week. Due to Isaias interacting with
Hispaniola, the details of the track and intensity forecast remain
uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location
of these potential impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. Tropical storm
or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida
later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 18.1N 68.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 19.7N 71.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 21.4N 74.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 24.6N 78.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 26.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 28.0N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 31.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 37.5N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 69.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system. Watches may be required for a portion of
the Florida peninsula later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 69.8 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will continue to move over Hispaniola
through this evening, and be near the Southeastern Bahamas by late
tonight or early Friday. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central
Bahamas Friday night and move near or over the Northwest Bahamas or
South Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is possible as Isaias continues
to move over Hispaniola today. Re-strengthening is forecast on
Friday and Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
primarily to the north of the center. A weather station at Punta
Cana near the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h)
within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning
area, and are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos later today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are
possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and
southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida
Saturday morning. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 70.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the northwest Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of
Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet

The Tropical Storm Warnings for the central and northwest Bahamas
may be upgraded to Hurricane Warnings this evening or tonight.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula tonight or Friday.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 70.6 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near the Southeastern Bahamas by late tonight.
Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and
move near or over the Northwest Bahamas and near South Florida on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Isaias is
forecast to become a hurricane on Friday or Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations in the Dominican Republic is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
flow in the central and northwest Bahamas. Storm surge will raise
water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in the
southeastern Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos within the warning area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday
morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late
Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
the central and northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and
southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect eastern
Florida over the weekend. This rain could result in isolated flash
and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into
the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Surface observations in the Dominican Republic indicate that the
poorly defined center of Isaias moved over the southeastern portion
of Hispaniola around 1600 UTC. There is currently a significant
concentration of convection near the mid-level center that is
located along the northern coast of the island, and recent
surface observations suggest that a new center may be forming
near the area of mid-level rotation seen in satellite imagery. The
advisory position has been placed between the previous estimated
center location and the mid-level center until it becomes more clear
that reformation has occurred. Earlier ASCAT data that arrived
shortly after the previous advisory and reconnaissance aircraft
data from this morning supported an intensity of 45-50 kt, and since
there has no significant degradation the overall organization since
that time, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The central
pressure of 999 mb is based on a surface observation of 1001 mb and
25 kt of wind at Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 310/17 kt. The
track forecast reasoning has not changed since the previous
advisory. The tropical storm should continue on a general northwest
heading during the next 24 to 36 hours along the southern side of a
subtropical ridge. After that time, a trough moving into the
east-central United States should cause Isaias to turn
north-northwestward and northward as the western portion of the
ridge erodes. By early next week, Isaias is expected to turn
northeastward and accelerate ahead of the aforementioned trough.
The 1200 UTC dynamical model guidance has shifted eastward and now
that Isaias is expected to become a stronger and deeper cyclone,
that also favors a more eastward track. The updated official
forecast is a blend of the various consensus aids. Since the new
center is still in its formative stage some additional shifts in
the track may occur. In addition, strong winds and heavy rainfall
will extend far from the center.

Visible imagery has shown significant banding near the mid-level
circulation. Assuming that the center reforms near that feature and
moves away from Hispaniola tonight, strengthening is expected
during the next 24-36 hours and Isaias is now forecast to become a
hurricane. After that time, there are mixed signals regarding the
amount of southwesterly vertical wind shear and the models
generally do not show much additional strengthening. Therefore,
the NHC intensity forecast shows a leveling off in intensity after
48 h. It still needs to be stressed that that there is a higher
than usual amount of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, northern Haiti, Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the central and northwest Bahamas late Friday and
Saturday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions will continue to
spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks
and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas tonight through Friday, and
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued. While storm surge watches are not currently needed
for this area, they may be required tonight or early tomorrow if the
forecast track shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated
with Isaias may begin to affect eastern Florida this weekend,
potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge this weekend along the Florida east coast and spreading
northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast through early
next week. The details of the track and intensity forecast remain
uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location
of these potential impacts, but interests along the entire U.S. east
coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 19.5N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0600Z 20.8N 72.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 31/1800Z 22.7N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 24.5N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 26.1N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 27.7N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 33.3N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

T4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 71.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the Northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula tonight or Friday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 71.2 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near the Southeastern Bahamas by late tonight.
Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and
move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South Florida on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday or Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
flow in the central and northwest Bahamas. Storm surge will raise
water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in the
southeastern Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos within the warning area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday
morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late
Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and
southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect eastern
Florida over the weekend. This rain could result in isolated flash
and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into
the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 71.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the Northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula tonight or Friday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 71.2 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near the Southeastern Bahamas by late tonight.
Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and
move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South Florida on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday or Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
flow in the central and northwest Bahamas. Storm surge will raise
water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in the
southeastern Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos within the warning area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday
morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late
Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and
southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect eastern
Florida over the weekend. This rain could result in isolated flash
and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into
the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Special Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 72.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the central and southeastern Bahamas, which include the Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged
Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San
Salvador.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula on Friday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM EDT (0400 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 72.2 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a
generally northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected for the next couple of days followed by turn
toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas overnight.
Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday
night and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South
Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the central and northwestern Bahamas. Storm surge will
raise water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels
in the southeastern Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos tonight and early Friday. Hurricane
conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday
morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late
Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into
the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Hurricane Isaias Special Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found that Isaias has become
a hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds so far were 87 kt at 850
mb, with believable SFMR values of at least 65 kt. A blend of
these values gives an initial wind speed of 70 kt. Some further
strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours before increasing
southwesterly shear could weaken the system. The intensity forecast
is modified upward from 5-10 kt through 48 hours and unchanged after
that time.

There are no changes to the previous track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern
Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the southeastern Bahamas overnight, central
and northwestern Bahamas late Friday and Saturday, and Hurricane
Warnings are in effect for these areas. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect. While storm surge watches are not currently needed
for this area, they may be required on Friday if the forecast track
shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may
begin to affect South Florida and east-Central Florida beginning
late Friday night, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and
spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast
through early next week. The details of the track and intensity
forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests
along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of
Isaias and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0400Z 20.4N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 21.6N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 23.5N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 25.2N 77.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 28.3N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 30.0N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 34.6N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 42.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake