ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[NDG]

Whoever keeps putting any stock on the HWRF forecast track is crazy. 06z run, is supposed making landfall over Nassau right now

[DESTRUCTION5]

Whoever keeps putting any stock on the HWRF forecast track is crazy. 06z run, is supposed making landfall over Nassau right now

https://i.imgur.com/SnLPHy0.png

HWRF and HMON are terrible year over year. Always skewing the TVCN blend one way or other.

[jlauderdal]

Whoever keeps putting any stock on the HWRF forecast track is crazy. 06z run, is supposed making landfall over Nassau right now

They need to put HWRF into retirement effective today.

[cp79]

I definitely would lean towards the more west models right now given its look. It’s really hurting. A weak system is more likely to take a left turn. Already not a lot of models Last night had this thing going right over Andros.

[Kat5]

12z NAM is reflecting a weaker a ridge.

[TheStormExpert]

Closer look at the 06z GFS, it shifted around 10 miles west, we are now getting a good consensus between it and the 0z Euro. Fairly close on timing as well.

https://i.imgur.com/xXezFUf.gif
https://i.imgur.com/nUYPJSv.gif

What do you think folks here in NE Palm Beach County could expect from Isaias considering we’ll be on the west side?

If it keeps its current structure not, much. Let me see what the Euro shows.
Edit: Just checked the Euro, it shows at the most wind gusts near 50 mph at the most tomorrow around noon.

So probably not even worth putting shutters up at this point.

[Cat5James]

12z NAM is reflecting a weaker a ridge.

Also showing a landfall in So Flo

[HurricaneFrances04]

12z NAM is reflecting a weaker a ridge.

And ends up west of the 6z

[NDG]

12z NAM is reflecting a weaker a ridge.

But it still shifted west from previous two runs, making landfall in Palm Beach. For whatever is worth.
Edit: what is interesting that it trended stronger with Isaia's strength from previous two runs but still shifted west.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM shifts west, looks close to landfall in Palm Beach County. Looking at NDG’s image, looks like Boynton/Delray

[AutoPenalti]

tbf, it’s weaker than 06z

[HurricaneFrances04]

tbf, it’s weaker than 06z

If anything looks a few mb stronger

[AutoPenalti]

tbf, it’s weaker than 06z

If anything looks a few mb stronger

Yeah, it does.

[Steve]

tbf, it’s weaker than 06z

If anything looks a few mb stronger

Yeah, it does.

3km at 24 hours (12z run) has it at 985. If you go back to the 06z at 30 hours it showed 989mb. So slightly stronger. 12z HRRR stayed offshore. It does wobble toward the central FL Coast, but it doesn't really ever get ashore. Looks to still be in close call range. General consensus is a close call with either a hit in northern SC or southern NC.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS a small chunk south at 18 and 24 hours.

[SFLcane]

GFS a small chunk south at 18 and 24 hours.

Indeed a south shift on the gfs.

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like GFS landfall on Palm Beach

[Weatherboy1]

GFS looks like a Palm Beach County landfall (barely), no? Not sure on the hi-res but looks darn close

[HurricaneEnzo]

12z GFS shifts West

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[toad strangler]