ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

If you are a believer in GFS, check this out

https://i.imgur.com/5POi2Xq.png

Trough has gone positive

[eastcoastFL]

If you are a believer in GFS, check this out

https://i.imgur.com/5POi2Xq.png

Is that due north or extreme NNW from current location? I’m curious how much of a difference it cross the center of andros will make since every model had him clipping the north.

[GCANE]

5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like to my untrained eye it's going to re emerge off Andros well south of NHC and models...

[Canelaw99]

5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.

GCANE - can you explain in layman’s terms for us amateurs, please?

[eastcoastFL]

Still seems a tad south and west of forecast

[toad strangler]

I dunno man, ‘57 seems too preoccupied with his vacation time these days to really trust if he’s being neutral

[tropicwatch]

Just an observation but look at the split in movement of moisture over north Florida. Some going northeast and the other southwest. I think the high pressure over the gulf is pretty strong and maybe some influence from Isaias of the moisture flowing southwest.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/mimictpw_natl_latest.gif

[GCANE]

If you are a believer in GFS, check this out

https://i.imgur.com/5POi2Xq.png

Is that due north or extreme NNW from current location? I’m curious how much of a difference it cross the center of andros will make since every model had him clipping the north.

Actually has it north of Andros at +12hr.
Here it is down the road a little more at +30hr

[tarheelprogrammer]

Center is about to be exposed here soon. Looks to be struggling with producing its own convection. This is no longer a hurricane IMHO. However, I am not an expert.

[aspen]

Seems like Barry has some competition for the ugliest looking hurricane. Isaias is really struggling this morning.

[GCANE]

5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.

GCANE - can you explain in layman’s terms for us amateurs, please?

CAPE is a measure of unstable air.
5000+ is extreme.
That will fill in over FL later today.
Skies are clear this morning which rapidly heats the land.
The rising heat mixed with the very unstable air will set off large thunderstorms later today.
The moist remains of the thunderstorms will flow into Isaias adding fuel and likely give it a nudge west.

[crimi481]

Noticing moisture feeds from the south. None last night. May reorganize?

[tolakram]

Here comes the center.

IMO this continues to pulse up and down, fairly steady state, so don't take your eyes off it.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=736.3920593261719&y=900.875

[Aric Dunn]

5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.

https://i.imgur.com/tz9j8nR.gif

https://i.imgur.com/eTd9Ppt.gif

Surface base heating and convection over land later may help feed the west side of Isalsa.

[jlauderdal]

I dunno man, ‘57 seems too preoccupied with his vacation time these days to really trust if he’s being neutral

True..i had posted earlier in the week about his wishcasting the storm away so he gets his comp days

[GCANE]

I dunno man, ‘57 seems too preoccupied with his vacation time these days to really trust if he’s being neutral

Where's Aric?

[jlauderdal]

5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.

GCANE - can you explain in layman’s terms for us amateurs, please?

CAPE is a measure of unstable air.
5000+ is extreme.
That will fill in over FL later today.
Skies are clear this morning which rapidly heats the land.
The rising heat mixed with the very unstable air will set off large thunderstorms later today.
The moist remains of the thunderstorms will flow into Isaias adding fuel and likely give it a nudge west.

We are sunny in fll..ripe to destabilize

[MGC]

Good to see that Isaias has weakened overnight. I would not write off this storm. Things can change quickly in the tropics. Once Isaias moves off Andros it will move over the gulf stream. Gulf stream might work its magic once again......MGC

[tarheelprogrammer]

Noticing moisture feeds from the south. None last night. May reorganize?

Problem is there is nothing but dry air to pull from to its west. Mid level WV shows this to the be the case and it is not just a small amount either. We shall see though. Anything is possible, for sure.