ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Going to have to turn sharply north to get to Euro's forecast. A Palm Beach County landfall is not off the table here. Looks like it is going exactly as 12Z euro yesterday has it, and that run went into boca.

[wxman57]

Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.

[crimi481]

Good moisture feed from south. Storm changed tires- oil change. May bulk up soon

[wx98]

Recon found some unflagged SFMR values of nearly 60 kt between Andros and Nassau, but with only about 45 kt FL to match at that point in time. This would support the IR presentation of collapsing thunderstorms, as this could be from downdraft winds.

[FireRat]

Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.

i think so too, looks like it's down to a TS today. Perhaps it regains Cat 1 once passing south FL tonight into tomorrow as it heads north for the Carolinas.

[SFLcane]

Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.

57, wouldn’t a weaker storm track much closer to SFL?

[StormingB81]

Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.

I think once it hits that Gulf Stream it will go back up to a cat 1 as it scrapes the FL coast...it did the same thing yesterday then built back up

[toad strangler]

If somehow Isaias holds on to Cat 1 status AND landfalls in FL it would be the first hurricane landfall on the FL E Coast since a Cat 1 Katrina in 2005.
That said, landfall is absolutely a huge question mark even though the 12z GFS come REAL CLOSE and even more questionable is the intensity of the storm then. If I had to bet now I'd side on a TS landfall somewhere between Jupiter and Melbourne.

[NDG]

Last night's Euro did a very good job of showing Isaias deep convection wine down this morning, it forecasts it to return later today to later collapse and so on while tracks along the FL coast through Sunday.

[Evil Jeremy]

Off-White clouds building up quickly in Broward County right now... Blue skies over my house a couple hours ago are gone.

[Airboy]

Looks like the center is exiting from the island on the western tip of the island.

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like the center are exiting from the island on the western tip of the island.

Yes it does. At this heading, it will go right over Bimini later.

[GCANE]

Outflow is definitely taking out that western dry slot.
CAPE increasing in the dry slot from 500 to now 1000.

Outflow is pretty much in all radial directions.

Also CAPE increasing across northern FL. Now up to 3500.

Isaias could hit the water running, especially if an anticyclone quickly forms over this.
Chances looking better that it will.

[AutoPenalti]

Off-White clouds building up quickly in Broward County right now... Blue skies over my house a couple hours ago are gone.

Yeah I noticed it was getting that way as I was driving around.

[wxman57]

Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.

I think once it hits that Gulf Stream it will go back up to a cat 1 as it scrapes the FL coast...it did the same thing yesterday then built back up

Water temperatures are not the problem now, it's wind shear. It could strengthen when it turns north and tracks WITH the upper-level flow.

[crimi481]

Seems to be moving more west?

[wx98]

Off-White clouds building up quickly in Broward County right now... Blue skies over my house a couple hours ago are gone.

Looks like some broken bands of showers are moving that way.

[Steve]

Last night's Euro did a very good job of showing Isaias deep convection wine down this morning, it forecasts it to return later today to later collapse and so on while tracks along the FL coast through Sunday.

https://i.imgur.com/nMWYaVy.gif

I think I need to wine down this morning.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thank goodness I can just shut the weather channel off now this weekend and get stuff done. So happy that it’s fallen apart so much overnight. And development chances are only going to get worse. In MY opinion might still end up with a minimal tropical storm raking the east coast, unless it falls apart faster

[Aric Dunn]

Outflow is definitely taking out that western dry slot.
CAPE increasing in the dry slot from 500 to now 1000.

Outflow is pretty much in all radial directions.

Also CAPE increasing across northern FL. Now up to 3500.

Isaias could hit the water running, especially if an anticyclone quickly forms over this.
Chances looking better that it will.

Models are about to be way off. center moving wnw..

Low level cloud deck beginning to really thicken.. new convective burst coming soon