ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Steve]

HMON stays offshore and doesn't appear to strengthen coming up to the Carolinas.

[toad strangler]

Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Px9Mg9fD/hwrf-mslp-wind-09-L-7.png

He might be weak, but he could be your landfall from the East

[HurricaneEnzo]

Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

Just my personal opinion but I think this is still too far east. Gonna have a tough time getting there from its current position unless it changes its course really soon.

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[Steve]

Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Px9Mg9fD/hwrf-mslp-wind-09-L-7.png

He might be weak, but he could be your landfall from the East

lmao

Canadian still likes Miami. It's been too far west all along, but you never know until it happens.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80112&fh=6

[jhpigott]

12z HWRF simulated IR looks to bring some nasty weather to the SEFL Coast on up towards the Space Coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80112&fh=9

[SFLcane]

Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Px9Mg9fD/hwrf-mslp-wind-09-L-7.png

Wouldn’t that bring TS inland? Broward/PB

[SFLcane]

Eric Webb...

Worth noting that #Isaias will be ~ 100 km S-SW of the 6z HWRF & HMON 12hr forecast pts valid at 18z today. #Isaias weakening over Andros Isl. will have a big effect on impacts in the SE US. Expect a significant westward shift in upcoming computer model & official track forecasts.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1289600962529759232

[gatorcane]

:eek:

Eric Webb...

Worth noting that #Isaias will be ~ 100 km S-SW of the 6z HWRF & HMON 12hr forecast pts valid at 18z today. #Isaias weakening over Andros Isl. will have a big effect on impacts in the SE US. Expect a significant westward shift in upcoming computer model & official track forecasts.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 59232?s=21

12Z HWRF position in 6 hours. Don’t see it that far north. It would have to move north now.

[gatorcane]

HRRR shifts west. Looks like sustained TS winds for coastal Broward/Palm Beach County:

[Weatherboy1]

12z HWRF simulated IR looks to bring some nasty weather to the SEFL Coast on up towards the Space Coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80112&fh=9

That would be quite the “blow up” from what Isaias looks like now if it verified!

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles:

[jlauderdal]

12z CMC brings this sloppy mess right into S FL where John Morales is planning a picnic.

Haha, it would be an epic fail if it landed more than 1mm S of Boca

[jlauderdal]

Still big shift south HWRF...

The hwrf is a model without a plan, all it does is oscillate on intensity and track each run keeping us all wondering that maybe its on to something..like a hack golfer that hits enough decent shots to keep coming back

[jlauderdal]

Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

im getting in my car and driving the 10 miles N on A1A to see the hwrf verify, unlikely

[jlauderdal]

Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Px9Mg9fD/hwrf-mslp-wind-09-L-7.png

Wouldn’t that bring TS inland? Broward/PB

Yes, landfall deerfield beach/ boca line

[CourierPR]

Why the disparity between what we see on satellite and what has been forecast? This reminds me of Irene in '99 when it was supposed to pass south Florida in the Gulf but ended up going over my house in Pompano Beach.

[gatorcane]

Let’s face it. When the CMC is insisting only a weak to at most moderate TS as it moves into South Florida, we shouldn’t be surprised at what we are seeing, that model is very bullish normally and just hasn’t been for this storm.

[SFLcane]

Let’s face it. When the CMC is insisting only a weak to at most moderate TS as it moves into South Florida, we shouldn’t be surprised at what we are seeing, that model is very bullish normally and just hasn’t been for this storm.

Quite curious to see the 12z Euro I bet it comes west.

[Kat5]

Let’s face it. When the CMC is insisting only a weak to at most moderate TS as it moves into South Florida, we shouldn’t be surprised at what we are seeing, that model is very bullish normally and just hasn’t been for this storm.

Quite curious to see the 12z Euro I bet it comes west.

East

[MississippiWx]

Let’s face it. When the CMC is insisting only a weak to at most moderate TS as it moves into South Florida, we shouldn’t be surprised at what we are seeing, that model is very bullish normally and just hasn’t been for this storm.

The CMC hasn’t been “bullish” all season.