ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

God awful IR presentation currently. It took me awhile to find the actual storm. Yikes, at least for this storm yikes. Praying it falls apart. I am not buying into convective bursts tonight. I think we are seeing what this storm will look like for the most part throughout its life.

[wx98]

The first center drop is 996 mb

[eastcoastFL]

Breezy and gusty now in palm city. Feels good

[Condor]

It actually appears to me that the shear has begun to reduce slightly in Isaias' vicinity/near term future path. Also, if you look at the past several 3 hour increments, it appears the anticyclone to the south of the system may be making its way toward a more favorable location for Isaias. Whether or not that is enough to make a difference at this point remains to be seen.

Would like to make a GIF of the last several 3 hour increments but don't have the ability to do so right now. Here is the source of what I'm looking at: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[TheStormExpert]

Naked Swirl Alert!

[drewschmaltz]

It's a valuable learning experience to watch a semi naked swirl enter the warm waters near the gulf stream and struggle. It underpins the importance of all key factors. That said, I'm trying to understand better where the moisture is going to come from. On vapor loops I can usually identify feeders. Where is this going to come from?

[alienstorm]

This storm is crawling I would say no more than 10 mph, also wnw seems appropriate.

[chaser1]

I'm thinking we can discount that 150kt SFMR wind...

Yep, no fence straddling there. I'm with you on that one!

[jlauderdal]

Only 1 tenth of one percent reporting power outage in Broward county thus far so those squall lines are probably 40 mph max winds. It doesn't seem to be that far off track and if the core stays even just offshore it will likely redevelop once the shear lets up. Could blow some nasty squalls up with tornado's when the core gets closer to the coast but I think Florida lucked out.

that's a real victory considering th power grid is suspect at best in sofla

[wx98]

This storm is crawling I would say no more than 10 mph, also wnw seems appropriate.

My opinion is more NW, just judging by the way it has moved since leaving Andros.

[wx98]

Plane is finding a little stronger flight level wind NW of Nassau. SFMR still about 40 kt (give or take a couple kts). Maybe they will sample some of these new towers N and NE of the LLC.

[DestinHurricane]

Convection really firing off North of center.

[SFLcane]

Only 1 tenth of one percent reporting power outage in Broward county thus far so those squall lines are probably 40 mph max winds. It doesn't seem to be that far off track and if the core stays even just offshore it will likely redevelop once the shear lets up. Could blow some nasty squalls up with tornado's when the core gets closer to the coast but I think Florida lucked out.

that's a real victory considering th power grid is suspect at best in sofla

It sure is off track as a weaker storm.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1289658146223345665

[otowntiger]

Now the question of the hour is: what does the NHC do with the intensity at 5:00? I cannot believe they would keep it at hurricane status. It’s obvious to everyone including the average Joe general public who doesn’t pay much attention that this thing is no longer a hurricane and is even possibly just a depression at the moment. So why not just come clean be realistic and downgrade. Then upgrade as necessary? We’ll see.

[wx98]

The new convective blowup may draw the LLC more northward underneath it, correct?

[chaser1]

It's a valuable learning experience to watch a semi naked swirl enter the warm waters near the gulf stream and struggle. It underpins the importance of all key factors. That said, I'm trying to understand better where the moisture is going to come from. On vapor loops I can usually identify feeders. Where is this going to come from?

Right? This storm (or I should say the overall conditions around the storm) is really odd. Like, there's almost always either one "tap-root" type feeder band, or impressive banding all around the center, or at least some limited banding.... somewhere. Just seems that the air around the storm is humidity depleted. Even now, on visible there plenty of evidence of low level convergence to the west and south of the storm. Looks like all spotty cumulus or limited topped CB's. None of that flow seems to be able to fill in and form convective feeder bands though.

[pgoss11]

Now the question of the hour is: what does the NHC do with the intensity at 5:00? I cannot believe they would keep it at hurricane status. It’s obvious to everyone including the average Joe general public who doesn’t pay much attention that this thing is no longer a hurricane and is even possibly just a depression at the moment. So why not just come clean be realistic and downgrade. Then upgrade as necessary? We’ll see.

I believe they will downgrade it. It’s the right thing to do. They can always upgrade if the system intensifies

[emeraldislenc]

It is pretty amazing to go back and look at the long range models 9 days ago and see where the storm is now. I think some of the models did an outstanding job in predicting the track.

[xironman]

God awful IR presentation currently. It took me awhile to find the actual storm. Yikes, at least for this storm yikes. Praying it falls apart. I am not buying into convective bursts tonight. I think we are seeing what this storm will look like for the most part throughout its life.

Why with the weakening shear?

[CronkPSU]

The new convective blowup may draw the LLC more northward underneath it, correct?

yes, this is a definite possibility