ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Now officially Tropical Storm Isaias

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory is out. Down to TS, but forecast to strengthen back into a 75mph Cat 1 soon, and the Hurricane warnings are maintained. Hurricane watch for Broward discontinued.

[chaser1]

Now the question of the hour is: what does the NHC do with the intensity at 5:00? I cannot believe they would keep it at hurricane status. It’s obvious to everyone including the average Joe general public who doesn’t pay much attention that this thing is no longer a hurricane and is even possibly just a depression at the moment. So why not just come clean be realistic and downgrade. Then upgrade as necessary? We’ll see.

I'm with you. Barring real data suggesting otherwise, call it what it is. If they want to forecast re-intensification, well fine. I'm sure they won't go to such an extreme for the sake of continuity, and still call it a hurricane though (well, i'm not actually "sure" lol)

[funster]

Isaias is getting dressed for his visit to Florida. Pretty good blowup on the north side.

[TheStormExpert]

Advisory is out. Down to TS, but forecast to strengthen back into a 75mph Cat 1 soon, and the Hurricane warnings are maintained. Hurricane watch for Broward discontinued.

[chaser1]

Advisory is out. Down to TS, but forecast to strengthen back into a 75mph Cat 1 soon, and the Hurricane warnings are maintained. Hurricane watch for Broward discontinued.

okay, that's reasonable for now.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1289636997204602882

[mutley]

Now the question of the hour is: what does the NHC do with the intensity at 5:00? I cannot believe they would keep it at hurricane status. It’s obvious to everyone including the average Joe general public who doesn’t pay much attention that this thing is no longer a hurricane and is even possibly just a depression at the moment. So why not just come clean be realistic and downgrade. Then upgrade as necessary? We’ll see.

I think that is what they SHOULD do, ALWAYS.

[CronkPSU]

Advisory is out. Down to TS, but forecast to strengthen back into a 75mph Cat 1 soon, and the Hurricane warnings are maintained. Hurricane watch for Broward discontinued.

good call all around by NHC...trust is important and the NHC giving both the actual numbers but also advising it can restrengthen seems like the most prudent move based on the info right now

[TheStormExpert]

Not sure why the NHC is forecasting re-intensification into a minimal hurricane when none of model guidance does so?

[CronkPSU]

forecast track not expected to barely make landfall in the part of Florida around Cape Canaveral which islands jets out, here it is from my weather channel app

 https://twitter.com/richschellhase/status/1289664984553869313

[Condor]

[Evil Jeremy]

Not sure why the NHC is forecasting re-intensification into a minimal hurricane when none of model guidance does so?

Because it can't be ruled out quite yet, and better safe than sorry. Let's call it intangibles.

[Steve]

^^ Showing right on time Condor. It's about 5 EDT, and HRRR has it peaking from about 6-8 before warming and then coming back toward midnight. So far so good for its run.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1289636997204602882

That picture right there

What your favorite child-era stuffed animal would look like if tethered to the bumper of your parents car, prior to driving on a family vacation.
"...but mom, cant you fix it? No Bobby..... at this point most of Isaias is now spread out somewhere between Arizona and Florida. What were you thinking...."

[TheStormExpert]

Not sure why the NHC is forecasting re-intensification into a minimal hurricane when none of model guidance does so?

Because it can't be ruled out quite yet, and better safe than sorry. Let's call it intangibles.

True!

[Jr0d]

Not sure why the NHC is forecasting re-intensification into a minimal hurricane when none of model guidance does so?

The EURO, NAM, HWRF and a few others show deeping later on. Also the pressure is still fairly low, another indicator that he could make a quick comeback.

The potential for Isaias to restrengthen is there, hence hurricane warnings are still valid. It appears that Isaias is currently starting to convection around the center. If it can maintain this convection over night, it will likely be a hurrucane by 5am.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m curious how Andros Island can cause weakening, any insight?

[abajan]

Hardly anyone watching NBC 6 continuously since daybreak today would think anywhere in South Florida was still under a tropical storm warning. The news media really needs to get its act together! Seriously.

[toad strangler]

Not sure why the NHC is forecasting re-intensification into a minimal hurricane when none of model guidance does so?

The NHC and any met worth his or her salt uses much more input and data then what models put out.